DBDDiebold Nixdorf, IncorporatedTechnology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $64.91 · now $64.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DBD has typically landed between $55.03 and $77.57 — a range of −15.2% to +19.5% from the issuance price $64.91.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

755 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-08-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($64.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DBD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $64.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$55.03worst · -15.2%$77.57best · +19.5%
  • now $64.91 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $67.33 (+3.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $62.85–$71.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.03–$77.57
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 755 windows spanning 2023-08-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-07-28−25.3%−25.7%+0.0%
2026-07-27−25.3%−25.7%+0.0%
2026-07-21−23.5%−23.5%+2.9%
3 best
2023-11-08+45.3%+0.0%+45.3%
2023-11-07+44.1%+0.0%+44.1%
2023-11-06+42.7%+0.0%+42.7%

755 overlapping windows · 2023-08-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
100%
+2.4%
n=3
Feb
100%
+8.8%
n=3
Mar
33%
−0.8%
n=3
Apr
67%
−1.6%
n=3
May
100%
+17.5%
n=3
Jun
67%
+2.6%
n=3
Jul
67%
+0.4%
n=3
Aug
67%
+1.2%
n=3
Sep
25%
−1.3%
n=4
Oct
100%
+2.5%
n=3
Nov
67%
+14.7%
n=3
Dec
67%
+3.7%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$91$552026-07-31: 1 insider purchase, $51K — Timko Thomas S2026-06-26: 1 insider sale, $8.5M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-06-25: 1 insider sale, $233K — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-06-24: 1 insider sale, $19.2M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $148K — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $13.1M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $91K — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $7.3M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-05-27: 1 insider purchase, $49K — Marquez Octavio2026-05-26: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Marquez Octavio2026-05-22: 2 insider purchases, $150K — Myers Jonathan, Timko Thomas S2026-04-16: 1 insider sale, $5.2M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-04-15: 1 insider sale, $4.4M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-04-08: 1 insider sale, $33.0M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2026-01-15: 1 insider sale, $34.0M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2025-11-06: 1 insider sale, $2.6M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2025-11-05: 1 insider sale, $13.3M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2025-09-18: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Millstreet Capital Management LLC2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $3.5M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $15.9M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $34.0M2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $42.5M2026-05: 4 open-market purchases, $249K2026-06: 8 open-market sales, $50.0M2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $51K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Timko Thomas S — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed same daytenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-06-26, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-06-25, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Marquez Octavio — Purchase on 2026-05-27, filed same daydirector Marquez Octavio — Purchase on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Myers Jonathan — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed same dayofficer Timko Thomas S — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed same daytenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-04-16, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-04-08, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 5 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Millstreet Capital Management LLC — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Timko Thomas SofficerPurchase700 @ $72.29$51K+28.8% of holding−10.5%not yet — horizon still open3,132Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-26Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale100,000 @ $84.80$8.5M−2.4% of holding+5.2%not yet — horizon still open4,104,432Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-25Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale2,741 @ $85.06$233K−0.1% of holding+6.7%not yet — horizon still open4,204,432Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale228,723 @ $83.95$19.2M−5.2% of holding+6.4%not yet — horizon still open4,207,173Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale1,765 @ $83.91$148K−0.0% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open4,435,896Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale159,675 @ $82.12$13.1M−3.5% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open4,437,661Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale1,108 @ $82.06$91K−0.0% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open4,597,336Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale17,660 @ $82.08$1.4M−0.4% of holding+2.5%not yet — horizon still open4,598,444Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale88,334 @ $82.99$7.3M−1.9% of holding+2.6%not yet — horizon still open4,616,104Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-27Marquez OctaviodirectorPurchase621 @ $79.56$49K+0.3% of holding+11.5%not yet — horizon still open217,507Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-26Marquez OctaviodirectorPurchase629 @ $79.37$50K+0.3% of holding+8.4%not yet — horizon still open216,886Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-22Myers JonathanofficerPurchase1,360 @ $73.41$100K+3.1% of holding+13.6%not yet — horizon still open45,626Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-22Timko Thomas SofficerPurchase672 @ $74.36$50K+0.9% of holding+13.6%not yet — horizon still open75,480Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-16Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale60,833 @ $84.77$5.2M−1.3% of holding−24.6%not yet — horizon still open4,704,438Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale51,472 @ $85.43$4.4M−1.1% of holding−22.2%not yet — horizon still open4,765,271Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-08Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale399,929 @ $82.42$33.0M−7.7% of holding−9.3%not yet — horizon still open4,816,743Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-15Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale500,000 @ $68.00$34.0M−8.7% of holding+19.0%+13.8%5,216,672Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-06Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale40,522 @ $64.52$2.6M−0.7% of holding−2.3%+7.2%5,716,672Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-05Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale211,204 @ $62.93$13.3M−3.5% of holding+2.1%+13.9%5,757,194Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-18Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale38,963 @ $60.08$2.3M−0.6% of holding−7.4%+20.2%5,968,398Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-16Millstreet Capital Management LLCtenPercentOwnerSale20,000 @ $60.11$1.2M−0.3% of holding−4.2%+18.7%6,007,361Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09Baur Frank TobiasofficerPurchase700 @ $46.12$32K+1.8% of holding+3.4%+19.9%38,572Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-28PEARLMAN EMANUEL RdirectorSale1,000 @ $43.71$44K−2.4% of holding+4.4%+29.0%41,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-28PEARLMAN EMANUEL RdirectorSale1,000 @ $43.65$44K−2.4% of holding+4.4%+29.0%40,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-27Capital World InvestorstenPercentOwnerSale19,842 @ $43.65$866K−5.6% of holding+5.9%+33.4%335,869Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-03Timko Thomas SofficerGift67273,048Form 4
2026-06-03Timko Thomas SofficerGift6722,432Form 4
2026-05-22Markus Maura A.directorAward / grant2,62110,617Form 4
2026-05-22Parris Colin J.directorAward / grant2,62110,586Form 4
2026-05-11Singh Rajesh KofficerAward / grant17,12817,128Form 4
2026-03-07Marquez OctaviodirectorWithheld for tax10,549216,257Form 4
2026-03-01Marquez OctaviodirectorWithheld for tax9,119182,520Form 4
2026-03-01Timko Thomas SofficerWithheld for tax7,55359,500Form 4
2026-03-01Myers JonathanofficerWithheld for tax2,90534,818Form 4
2026-03-01Baur Frank TobiasofficerWithheld for tax2,87634,980Form 4
2026-03-01Radigan Elizabeth ChristineofficerWithheld for tax1,94421,946Form 4
2026-03-01Sesplankis Jeffrey MofficerWithheld for tax6725,129Form 4
2026-03-01Zosel Andrew JosephofficerAward / grant6,5616,561Form 4
2026-03-01Myers JonathanofficerAward / grant9,44844,266Form 4
2026-03-01Timko Thomas SofficerAward / grant15,30874,808Form 4
2026-03-01Marquez OctaviodirectorAward / grant44,286226,806Form 4
2026-03-01Radigan Elizabeth ChristineofficerAward / grant6,60728,553Form 4
2026-03-01Baur Frank TobiasofficerAward / grant7,58942,569Form 4
2026-03-01Sesplankis Jeffrey MofficerAward / grant2,2157,344Form 4
2026-01-19Marquez OctaviodirectorWithheld for tax3,136191,639Form 4
2026-01-19Timko Thomas SofficerWithheld for tax1,43967,053Form 4
2026-01-19Myers JonathanofficerWithheld for tax1,04737,723Form 4
2026-01-19Radigan Elizabeth ChristineofficerWithheld for tax75723,890Form 4
2026-01-19Baur Frank TobiasofficerWithheld for tax71637,856Form 4
2025-11-14Capital World InvestorstenPercentOwnerOther acquisition20,180356,049Form 4
2025-04-30Markus Maura A.directorAward / grant4,8007,996Form 4
2025-04-30Parris Colin J.directorAward / grant4,8007,965Form 4
2025-03-07Marquez OctaviodirectorWithheld for tax9,036194,775Form 4
2025-03-01Timko Thomas SofficerWithheld for tax2,67368,492Form 4
2025-03-01Cantadurucu IlhamiofficerWithheld for tax1,59923,810Form 4
2025-03-01Myers JonathanofficerWithheld for tax1,58638,770Form 4
2025-03-01Baur Frank TobiasofficerWithheld for tax1,26037,872Form 4
2025-03-01Radigan Elizabeth ChristineofficerWithheld for tax1,04324,647Form 4
2025-03-01Creech Kathleen AnnofficerWithheld for tax84915,134Form 4
2025-03-01Marquez OctaviodirectorAward / grant69,523203,811Form 4
2025-03-01Baur Frank TobiasofficerAward / grant9,56039,132Form 4
2025-03-01Cantadurucu IlhamiofficerAward / grant8,25425,409Form 4
2025-03-01Radigan Elizabeth ChristineofficerAward / grant8,29225,690Form 4
2025-03-01Creech Kathleen AnnofficerAward / grant8,17415,983Form 4
2025-03-01Timko Thomas SofficerAward / grant23,92971,165Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.