Issued 2026-09-16 at $365.83 · now $365.83 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DAVE has typically landed between $241.38 and $576.07 — a range of −34.0% to +57.5% from the issuance price $365.83.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,333 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($365.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DAVE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $365.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $365.83 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $365.83 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $302.64–$429.02
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $241.38–$576.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,333 windows spanning 2021-04-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-05-31 | −70.0% | −70.0% | +0.4% |
| 2022-06-01 | −69.7% | −69.8% | +0.9% |
| 2022-06-02 | −68.7% | −70.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-05 | +177.1% | +0.0% | +177.1% |
| 2024-01-04 | +166.6% | +0.0% | +166.6% |
| 2024-01-03 | +162.0% | −1.3% | +162.0% |
1,333 overlapping windows · 2021-04-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+22.2%
n=5
Feb
60%
+0.4%
n=5
Mar
40%
+9.9%
n=5
Apr
60%
+7.6%
n=5
May
67%
+12.0%
n=6
Jun
33%
−6.5%
n=6
Jul
67%
+4.1%
n=6
Aug
50%
−1.9%
n=6
Sep
50%
−8.0%
n=6
Oct
40%
−2.1%
n=5
Nov
80%
+38.2%
n=5
Dec
60%
+0.6%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Carroll Brendan | director | Sale | 33,453 @ $1.60 | $54K | −42.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,994 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Carroll Brendan | director | Sale | 16,179 @ $1.59 | $26K | −17.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,447 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Carroll Brendan | director | Sale | 15,359 @ $1.59 | $24K | −14.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 94,626 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Carroll Brendan | director | Sale | 300,000 @ $1.98 | $594K | −73.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 109,985 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Preston Dan | director | Sale | 275 @ $259.83 | $71K | −5.0% of holding | +44.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,191 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Preston Dan | director | Sale | 275 @ $247.65 | $68K | −4.8% of holding | +47.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,466 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Wilk Jason | director | Sale | 8,290 @ $275.01 | $2.3M | −2.7% of holding | +46.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 299,950 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Sale | 4,073 @ $275.00 | $1.1M | −2.0% of holding | +46.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 196,155 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Wilk Jason | director | Sale | 104 @ $276.55 | $29K | −0.0% of holding | +46.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 308,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Wilk Jason | director | Sale | 80 @ $277.49 | $22K | −0.0% of holding | +46.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 308,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Sale | 49 @ $277.23 | $14K | −0.0% of holding | +46.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 200,228 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 2,158 @ $209.34 | $452K | −12.5% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 15,154 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 2,004 @ $213.58 | $428K | −18.0% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 9,138 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 1,871 @ $211.38 | $395K | −13.9% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 11,638 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 1,782 @ $208.28 | $371K | −9.3% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 17,312 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 1,645 @ $210.32 | $346K | −10.9% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 13,509 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 1,412 @ $207.51 | $293K | −6.9% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 19,094 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 1,007 @ $214.60 | $216K | −11.0% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 8,131 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 900 @ $215.58 | $194K | −11.1% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 7,231 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 803 @ $206.26 | $166K | −3.8% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 20,506 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 722 @ $216.74 | $156K | −10.0% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 6,509 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 496 @ $212.65 | $105K | −4.3% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 11,142 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 200 @ $204.86 | $41K | −0.9% of holding | −22.1% | +60.0% | 21,309 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 4,029 @ $214.88 | $866K | −13.0% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 27,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 1,883 @ $218.08 | $411K | −7.3% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 23,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 1,848 @ $210.41 | $389K | −5.1% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 34,311 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 1,685 @ $211.48 | $356K | −4.9% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 32,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 1,235 @ $213.81 | $264K | −3.8% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 31,091 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 800 @ $219.28 | $175K | −3.4% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 23,079 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 700 @ $215.62 | $151K | −2.6% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 26,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 600 @ $217.16 | $130K | −2.3% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 25,762 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 570 @ $221.42 | $126K | −2.5% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 22,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 500 @ $220.08 | $110K | −2.2% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 22,579 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 350 @ $209.20 | $73K | −1.0% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 36,159 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 300 @ $222.20 | $67K | −1.4% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 21,709 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 300 @ $212.53 | $64K | −0.9% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 32,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mitchell Andrea | director | Sale | 200 @ $223.22 | $45K | −0.9% of holding | −17.2% | +65.0% | 21,509 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | POPE MICHAEL W | director | Sale | 544 @ $162.00 | $88K | −8.5% of holding | +22.0% | +134.2% | 5,831 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 591 @ $204.59 | $121K | −73.8% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 500 @ $203.90 | $102K | −55.6% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 407 @ $197.92 | $81K | −19.0% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 1,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 396 @ $198.54 | $79K | −21.5% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 1,446 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 309 @ $198.59 | $61K | −17.8% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 1,428 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 298 @ $204.90 | $61K | −74.5% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 278 @ $202.59 | $56K | −25.8% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 801 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 268 @ $197.53 | $53K | −12.7% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 1,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 246 @ $202.29 | $50K | −21.5% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 183 @ $200.92 | $37K | −14.5% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 1,079 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 166 @ $199.81 | $33K | −11.6% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 1,262 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 164 @ $199.68 | $33K | −11.3% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 1,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 136 @ $200.78 | $27K | −10.6% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 1,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 110 @ $205.14 | $23K | −52.4% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 102 @ $205.93 | $21K | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 100 @ $206.71 | $21K | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | +43.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $198.69 | $775K | −27.4% of holding | −7.1% | +45.5% | 10,313 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 3,779 @ $198.85 | $751K | −28.0% of holding | −7.1% | +45.5% | 9,699 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $196.70 | $708K | −19.4% of holding | −7.1% | +45.5% | 14,989 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 3,509 @ $196.68 | $690K | −19.0% of holding | −7.1% | +45.5% | 14,927 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 2,464 @ $200.73 | $495K | −31.4% of holding | −7.1% | +45.5% | 5,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Khan Imran | director | Sale | 2,454 @ $199.72 | $490K | −23.8% of holding | −7.1% | +45.5% | 7,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Other acquisition | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Other acquisition | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Wilk Jason | director | Other acquisition | 37,090 | 37,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Other acquisition | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Wilk Jason | director | Other acquisition | 37,090 | 37,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Wilk Jason | director | Other acquisition | 37,090 | 37,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Other acquisition | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Wilk Jason | director | Other acquisition | 37,090 | 37,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wilk Jason | director | Withheld for tax | 7,809 | 292,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,748 | 192,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Rozov Yadin | director | Gift | 2,200 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Khajehnouri Nima | director | Award / grant | 637 | 637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | POPE MICHAEL W | director | Award / grant | 637 | 6,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Carroll Brendan | director | Award / grant | 637 | 2,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Rozov Yadin | director | Award / grant | 637 | 75,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Preston Dan | director | Award / grant | 637 | 5,741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Other acquisition | 25,650 | 25,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Other acquisition | 25,650 | 25,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,261 | 200,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 8,260 | 163,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wilk Jason | director | Award / grant | 72,539 | 290,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wilk Jason | director | Award / grant | 18,335 | 308,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Wilk Jason | director | Award / grant | 13,767 | 217,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 30,224 | 194,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 9,498 | 203,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Wilk Jason | director | Withheld for tax | 6,678 | 203,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 155,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 22,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Wilk Jason | director | Option exercise | 81,693 | 1,314,082 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Wilk Jason | director | Option exercise | 81,693 | 299,547 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Wilk Jason | director | Option exercise | 2,948 | 1,395,775 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Wilk Jason | director | Option exercise | 2,948 | 220,802 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Wilk Jason | director | Option exercise | 15,359 | 233,213 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-12 | Wilk Jason | director | Option exercise | 15,359 | 1,398,723 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-14 | Beilman Kyle | officer | Award / grant | 3,240 | 227,622 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.