DARDarling Ingredients Inc.Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $65.56 · now $65.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DAR has typically landed between $54.10 and $77.47 — a range of −17.5% to +18.2% from the issuance price $65.56.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($65.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where DAR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $65.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$54.1worst · -17.5%$77.47best · +18.2%
  • now $65.56 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $66.38 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $61.25–$71.51
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $54.1–$77.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−55.0%−55.0%+0.0%
2008-10-21−53.0%−53.0%+3.0%
2020-02-18−50.5%−50.5%+1.1%
3 best
2009-03-18+82.8%+0.0%+82.8%
2009-04-08+68.6%+0.0%+68.6%
2009-03-19+63.2%+0.0%+78.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+0.5%
n=20
Feb
60%
+2.5%
n=20
Mar
55%
+3.7%
n=20
Apr
65%
+5.1%
n=20
May
60%
+4.1%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.9%
n=20
Jul
70%
+2.2%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.8%
n=20
Oct
70%
+2.2%
n=20
Nov
65%
+1.4%
n=20
Dec
55%
+3.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$68$302026-09-02: 1 insider sale, $341K — STUEWE RANDALL C2026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $67K — MANZI JOSEPH2026-08-17: 2 insider sales, $439K — Dudley Sandra …2026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $537K — McNutt Patrick2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $324K — STUEWE RANDALL C2026-08-12: 1 insider sale, $316K — STUEWE RANDALL C2026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $100K — Kemphaus Nicholas James2026-07-31: 2 insider purchases, $61K — Adair Charles L …2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $192K — MANZI JOSEPH2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — STUEWE RANDALL C2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $154K — van der Velden Jan2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — van der Velden Jan2026-02-13: 7 insider sales, $752K — Dudley Sandra, Kemphaus Nicholas James …2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — STUEWE RANDALL C2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $857K — STUEWE RANDALL C2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — STERLING JOHN F2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $3.3M2026-02: 9 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $192K2026-07: 2 open-market purchases, $61K2026-08: 7 open-market sales, $1.8M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $341K↑ buys↓ salesdirector STUEWE RANDALL C — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer MANZI JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed same dayofficer Dudley Sandra — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Dudley Sandra — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McNutt Patrick — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed same daydirector STUEWE RANDALL C — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STUEWE RANDALL C — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kemphaus Nicholas James — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed same daydirector Adair Charles L — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Adair Charles L — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer MANZI JOSEPH — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed same daydirector STUEWE RANDALL C — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer van der Velden Jan — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer van der Velden Jan — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dudley Sandra — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kemphaus Nicholas James — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kemphaus Nicholas James — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Dudley Sandra — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Dudley Sandra — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kemphaus Nicholas James — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Kemphaus Nicholas James — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STUEWE RANDALL C — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STUEWE RANDALL C — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer STERLING JOHN F — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorSale5,000 @ $68.20$341K−0.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,133,467Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-18MANZI JOSEPHofficerSale1,000 @ $67.27$67K−5.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open18,969Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17Dudley SandraofficerSale3,876 @ $67.87$263K−5.0% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open74,232Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Dudley SandraofficerSale2,598 @ $67.88$176K−3.2% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open78,108Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14McNutt PatrickofficerSale8,000 @ $67.09$537K−18.3% of holding+1.7%not yet — horizon still open35,777Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-13STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorSale5,000 @ $64.79$324K−0.4% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open1,138,467Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorSale5,000 @ $63.26$316K−0.4% of holding+3.7%not yet — horizon still open1,143,467Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Kemphaus Nicholas JamesofficerSale1,591 @ $63.05$100K−4.3% of holding+8.8%not yet — horizon still open35,087Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-31Adair Charles LdirectorPurchase500 @ $61.27$31K+1.0% of holding+6.6%not yet — horizon still open51,690Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-31Adair Charles LdirectorPurchase500 @ $60.67$30K+1.0% of holding+6.6%not yet — horizon still open51,190Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01MANZI JOSEPHofficerSale3,000 @ $63.89$192K−13.1% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open19,969Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorSale20,000 @ $52.12$1.0M−1.8% of holding+21.7%+8.1%1,117,085Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18van der Velden JanofficerSale3,000 @ $51.29$154K−4.0% of holding+13.8%+16.9%71,678Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17van der Velden JanofficerSale20,000 @ $51.22$1.0M−21.1% of holding+14.5%+21.1%74,678Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-13Dudley SandraofficerSale4,856 @ $51.86$252K−6.1% of holding+13.3%+18.9%74,895Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Kemphaus Nicholas JamesofficerSale2,661 @ $52.03$138K−6.7% of holding+13.3%+18.9%37,045Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Kemphaus Nicholas JamesofficerSale2,546 @ $52.29$133K−6.9% of holding+13.3%+18.9%34,499Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Dudley SandraofficerSale2,331 @ $51.76$121K−3.2% of holding+13.3%+18.9%71,100Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Dudley SandraofficerSale1,464 @ $51.57$75K−2.0% of holding+13.3%+18.9%73,431Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Kemphaus Nicholas JamesofficerSale620 @ $51.96$32K−1.8% of holding+13.3%+18.9%33,879Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Kemphaus Nicholas JamesofficerSale3 @ $52.56$158−0.0% of holding+13.3%+18.9%33,876Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-18STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorSale35,000 @ $30.92$1.1M−4.3% of holding+4.3%+59.2%781,437Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-15STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorSale27,500 @ $31.17$857K−3.3% of holding+6.1%+56.7%816,437Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-12STERLING JOHN FofficerSale35,000 @ $31.13$1.1M−11.2% of holding+0.3%+51.3%276,473Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorSale7,500 @ $31.62$237K−0.9% of holding−1.0%+41.6%843,937Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorSale40,000 @ $34.05$1.4M−4.5% of holding+12.5%−11.7%851,437Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

136 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Dudley SandraofficerWithheld for tax3,33080,706Form 4
2026-08-17Dudley SandraofficerOption exercise5,92884,036Form 4
2026-08-17Dudley SandraofficerOption exercise5,9280Form 4
2026-05-07Schroder SorendirectorAward / grant26113,086Form 4
2026-05-07Hill Randy LdirectorAward / grant26115,786Form 4
2026-05-07Barden LarrydirectorAward / grant26135,108Form 4
2026-05-07Clark Celeste A.directorAward / grant13020,567Form 4
2026-05-07Stoffel KurtdirectorAward / grant2,65021,139Form 4
2026-05-07Adair Charles LdirectorAward / grant2,65050,690Form 4
2026-05-07Aspell Robert PatrickdirectorAward / grant2,6503,199Form 4
2026-05-07Barden LarrydirectorAward / grant2,65034,847Form 4
2026-05-07Schroder SorendirectorAward / grant2,65012,825Form 4
2026-05-07Clark Celeste A.directorAward / grant2,65020,437Form 4
2026-05-07GOODSPEED LINDAdirectorAward / grant2,65042,836Form 4
2026-05-07Hill Randy LdirectorAward / grant2,65015,525Form 4
2026-05-07Guimaraes EndersondirectorAward / grant2,65021,095Form 4
2026-03-09STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorWithheld for tax35,4461,148,467Form 4
2026-03-09van der Velden JanofficerWithheld for tax7,32879,153Form 4
2026-03-09Colpaert JeroenofficerWithheld for tax4,58029,764Form 4
2026-03-09Dudley SandraofficerWithheld for tax4,54778,108Form 4
2026-03-09McNutt PatrickofficerWithheld for tax3,48643,777Form 4
2026-03-09Day Robert WofficerWithheld for tax2,02641,435Form 4
2026-03-09Kemphaus Nicholas JamesofficerWithheld for tax1,81936,678Form 4
2026-03-09Finnimore Mark JosephofficerWithheld for tax1,11312,259Form 4
2026-03-09MANZI JOSEPHofficerWithheld for tax99922,969Form 4
2026-03-09Lairmore BrandonofficerWithheld for tax67537,666Form 4
2026-03-09McNutt PatrickofficerAward / grant9,24547,263Form 4
2026-03-09STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorAward / grant90,0781,183,913Form 4
2026-03-09Dudley SandraofficerAward / grant11,55582,655Form 4
2026-03-09Day Robert WofficerAward / grant4,65443,461Form 4
2026-03-09Finnimore Mark JosephofficerAward / grant2,07913,372Form 4
2026-03-09Kemphaus Nicholas JamesofficerAward / grant4,62138,497Form 4
2026-03-09van der Velden JanofficerAward / grant14,80386,481Form 4
2026-03-09Colpaert JeroenofficerAward / grant9,25234,344Form 4
2026-03-09Lairmore BrandonofficerAward / grant1,65238,341Form 4
2026-03-09MANZI JOSEPHofficerAward / grant4,10123,968Form 4
2026-03-06STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorWithheld for tax139,7541,137,085Form 4
2026-03-06STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorOption exercise263,7041,276,839Form 4
2026-03-06STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorGift23,2501,093,835Form 4
2026-03-06STUEWE RANDALL CdirectorOption exercise263,7040Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.