DAO · TickerCove

DAOYoudao, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.65 · now $14.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DAO has typically landed between $10.85 and $20.50 — a range of −25.9% to +39.9% from the issuance price $14.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,710 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-10-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$14.65 · 62% of range

$8.43 low$18.45 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.1%

typical move · IQR 21.8%

−25.9%worst (p90)+39.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where DAO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $14.65 (+0.0%)
typical $14.64 (-0.1%)
middle 50% $13.04–$16.23
90% range $10.85–$20.5

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,710 windows spanning 2019-10-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-06-25	−70.9%	−70.9%	+0.0%
2021-06-24	−65.5%	−65.5%	+1.6%
2021-06-30	−61.8%	−68.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2024-09-03	+90.1%	−3.8%	+90.1%
2022-11-22	+86.4%	+0.0%	+86.4%
2020-01-09	+85.8%	−1.3%	+85.8%

1,710 overlapping windows · 2019-10-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

86%

+13.8%

n=7

Feb

71%

+12.1%

n=7

Mar

14%

−15.4%

n=7

Apr

57%

+0.8%

n=7

May

57%

−6.2%

n=7

Jun

57%

+9.6%

n=7

Jul

57%

−6.2%

n=7

Aug

57%

+3.7%

n=7

Sep

43%

−2.2%

n=7

Oct

67%

+3.0%

n=6

Nov

57%

+15.2%

n=7

Dec

57%

−1.6%

n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-09	Jin Lei	officer	Sale	70,047	—	−32.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	143,598	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Peng Su	officer	Sale	6,750	—	−36.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Wu Yinghui	officer	Sale	6,750	—	−36.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Wu Yinghui	officer	Sale	6,750	—	−36.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Peng Su	officer	Sale	6,750	—	−36.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Jin Lei	officer	Sale	70,047	—	−32.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	143,598	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Jin Lei	officer	Sale	70,047	—	−32.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	143,598	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Wu Yinghui	officer	Sale	6,750	—	−36.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Jin Lei	officer	Sale	70,047	—	−32.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	143,598	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Wu Yinghui	officer	Sale	6,750	—	−36.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Peng Su	officer	Sale	6,750	—	−36.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Peng Su	officer	Sale	6,750	—	−36.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	4,012	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	4,012	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	4,012	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	4,012	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	9,189	—	−13.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	4,000	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	3,997	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	9,189	—	−13.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	4,000	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	3,997	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	4,000	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	3,997	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	9,189	—	−13.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	4,000	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	3,997	—	−6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Sale	9,189	—	−13.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,773	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-30	Li Yongwei	officer	Sale	2,300	—	−40.2% of holding	+33.8%	not yet — horizon still open	3,420	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-30	Li Yongwei	officer	Sale	2,300	—	−40.2% of holding	+33.8%	not yet — horizon still open	3,420	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-29	Li Yongwei	officer	Sale	4,000	—	−53.9% of holding	+32.9%	not yet — horizon still open	3,420	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29	Li Yongwei	officer	Sale	4,000	—	−53.9% of holding	+32.9%	not yet — horizon still open	3,420	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-28	Lai Jimmy Y.	director	Sale	3,997	—	−7.4% of holding	+4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	50,221	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28	Lai Jimmy Y.	director	Sale	3,997	—	−7.4% of holding	+4.0%	not yet — horizon still open	50,221	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

41 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	4,012	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	4,012	64,785	Form 4
2026-09-01	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	4,012	64,785	Form 4
2026-09-01	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	4,012	64,785	Form 4
2026-09-01	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	4,012	64,785	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	3,997	13,201	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	4,000	17,198	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	9,189	4,012	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	3,997	64,770	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	9,189	69,962	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	4,000	64,773	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	4,000	64,773	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	3,997	64,770	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	9,189	69,962	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	4,000	64,773	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	3,997	64,770	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	9,189	69,962	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	4,000	64,773	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	3,997	64,770	Form 4
2026-08-31	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Option exercise	9,189	69,962	Form 4
2026-06-30	Li Yongwei	officer	Option exercise	2,300	20,000	Form 4
2026-06-30	Li Yongwei	officer	Option exercise	2,300	5,720	Form 4
2026-06-30	Li Yongwei	officer	Option exercise	2,300	5,720	Form 4
2026-06-29	Li Yongwei	officer	Option exercise	4,000	22,300	Form 4
2026-06-29	Li Yongwei	officer	Option exercise	4,000	7,420	Form 4
2026-06-29	Li Yongwei	officer	Option exercise	4,000	7,420	Form 4
2026-06-01	Li Yongwei	officer	Award / grant	3,420	3,420	Form 4
2026-06-01	Li Yongwei	officer	Award / grant	3,420	3,420	Form 4
2026-05-29	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Award / grant	11,450	26,002	Form 4
2026-05-29	Lai Jimmy Y.	director	Award / grant	11,450	26,002	Form 4
2026-05-29	Shum Heung Yeung	director	Award / grant	11,450	26,002	Form 4
2026-05-29	Jin Lei	officer	Award / grant	82,120	188,079	Form 4
2026-05-29	Lai Jimmy Y.	director	Award / grant	11,450	26,002	Form 4
2026-05-29	Peng Su	officer	Award / grant	10,000	18,750	Form 4
2026-05-29	Wu Yinghui	officer	Award / grant	10,000	18,750	Form 4
2026-05-29	Peng Su	officer	Award / grant	10,000	18,750	Form 4
2026-05-29	Jin Lei	officer	Award / grant	82,120	188,079	Form 4
2026-05-29	Wu Yinghui	officer	Award / grant	10,000	18,750	Form 4
2026-05-28	Lai Jimmy Y.	director	Option exercise	3,997	13,201	Form 4
2026-05-28	Lai Jimmy Y.	director	Option exercise	3,997	54,218	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i