Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.96 · now $29.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DAN has typically landed between $24.36 and $37.08 — a range of −18.7% to +23.8% from the issuance price $29.96.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,672 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DAN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $29.96 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $29.63 (-1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.52–$32.73
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.36–$37.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,672 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-21 | −84.6% | −84.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −76.7% | −76.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-20 | −76.4% | −76.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-09 | +280.5% | +0.0% | +280.5% |
| 2009-07-07 | +261.6% | −9.3% | +261.6% |
| 2009-04-08 | +255.8% | +0.0% | +255.8% |
4,672 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+5.1%
n=18
Feb
53%
−1.7%
n=19
Mar
42%
−2.2%
n=19
Apr
58%
+6.8%
n=19
May
53%
+3.5%
n=19
Jun
37%
−3.6%
n=19
Jul
68%
+13.3%
n=19
Aug
42%
+0.4%
n=19
Sep
32%
−2.3%
n=19
Oct
56%
−0.7%
n=18
Nov
72%
+5.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.6%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 3,069 @ $22.44 | $69K | −18.6% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 13,446 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 2,812 @ $22.42 | $63K | −14.5% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 16,515 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 2,325 @ $22.43 | $52K | −10.7% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 19,327 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 1,722 @ $22.45 | $39K | −7.4% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 21,652 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 1,116 @ $22.46 | $25K | −4.6% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 23,374 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 832 @ $22.46 | $19K | −3.3% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 24,490 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 500 @ $22.49 | $11K | −1.9% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 25,322 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 404 @ $22.47 | $9K | −1.5% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 25,822 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 320 @ $22.45 | $7K | −1.2% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 26,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 100 @ $22.48 | $2K | −0.4% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 26,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Sale | 100 @ $22.43 | $2K | −0.4% of holding | +3.8% | +46.1% | 26,546 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $18.60 | $19K | −50.0% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $18.57 | $19K | −100.0% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 900 @ $18.70 | $17K | −31.0% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 800 @ $18.75 | $15K | −21.6% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 2,900 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 700 @ $18.66 | $13K | −12.1% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 5,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 700 @ $18.65 | $13K | −13.7% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 4,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 700 @ $18.57 | $13K | −15.9% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 3,700 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 600 @ $18.68 | $11K | −8.6% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 6,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 600 @ $18.61 | $11K | −9.4% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 5,800 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 500 @ $18.76 | $9K | −6.3% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 7,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 500 @ $18.58 | $9K | −6.7% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 7,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 400 @ $18.57 | $7K | −4.5% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 8,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 400 @ $18.56 | $7K | −4.8% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 300 @ $18.69 | $6K | −2.9% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 300 @ $18.67 | $6K | −3.0% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 9,700 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 300 @ $18.66 | $6K | −3.1% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 9,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 300 @ $18.64 | $6K | −3.2% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 9,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 300 @ $18.54 | $6K | −3.3% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 8,800 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 200 @ $18.77 | $4K | −1.8% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 11,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 200 @ $18.72 | $4K | −1.8% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 10,900 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 200 @ $18.71 | $4K | −1.8% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 10,700 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 200 @ $18.70 | $4K | −1.9% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 10,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 200 @ $18.59 | $4K | −1.9% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 10,300 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 100 @ $18.76 | $2K | −0.9% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 11,600 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 100 @ $18.76 | $2K | −0.9% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 11,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 100 @ $18.75 | $2K | −0.9% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 11,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 100 @ $18.68 | $2K | −0.9% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 11,300 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Kellett James D | officer | Sale | 28 @ $18.79 | $526 | −0.2% of holding | +7.4% | +67.0% | 11,700 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
261 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Nelligan Hanna Olivia | director | Award / grant | 21 | 60 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | McDonald R Bruce | director | Award / grant | 1,697 | 3,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Mack Michael J | director | Award / grant | 21 | 60 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Liedberg Douglas H | officer | Award / grant | 249 | 4,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | LaFreniere Nora E. | director | Award / grant | 21 | 60 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Kraus Timothy R | officer | Award / grant | 473 | 8,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Foster Byron S. | director | Award / grant | 347 | 5,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Hernandez Ernesto M | director | Award / grant | 21 | 60 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Pour Brian Keith | officer | Award / grant | 275 | 4,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Kellett James D | officer | Award / grant | 95 | 701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Karlin Bridget E | director | Award / grant | 21 | 60 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | OConnell Diarmuid B. | director | Award / grant | 21 | 60 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Kellett James D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,799 | 10,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Kellett James D | officer | Option exercise | 101 | 12,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Kellett James D | officer | Option exercise | 6,186 | 12,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Kellett James D | officer | Option exercise | 6,186 | 12,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Kellett James D | officer | Option exercise | 101 | 606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Pour Brian Keith | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,877 | 31,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Pour Brian Keith | officer | Option exercise | 958 | 39,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Pour Brian Keith | officer | Option exercise | 958 | 4,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Pour Brian Keith | officer | Option exercise | 19,400 | 19,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Pour Brian Keith | officer | Option exercise | 19,400 | 38,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | McDonald R Bruce | director | Award / grant | 190,694 | 190,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | McDonald R Bruce | director | Award / grant | 31,155 | 31,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Hernandez Ernesto M | director | Award / grant | 18 | 39 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Foster Byron S. | director | Award / grant | 297 | 5,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nelligan Hanna Olivia | director | Award / grant | 18 | 39 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | OConnell Diarmuid B. | director | Award / grant | 18 | 39 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Pour Brian Keith | officer | Award / grant | 304 | 5,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Kraus Timothy R | officer | Award / grant | 403 | 7,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mack Michael J | director | Award / grant | 18 | 39 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Kellett James D | officer | Award / grant | 101 | 707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | LaFreniere Nora E. | director | Award / grant | 18 | 39 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | McDonald R Bruce | director | Award / grant | 625 | 1,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Liedberg Douglas H | officer | Award / grant | 212 | 4,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Karlin Bridget E | director | Award / grant | 18 | 39 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | McDonald R Bruce | director | Award / grant | 22,808 | 22,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Hernandez Ernesto M | director | Award / grant | 21 | 21 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Mack Michael J | director | Award / grant | 21 | 21 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | McDonald R Bruce | director | Award / grant | 701 | 701 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Suozzi | House | sale | 2022-12-19 | 2020-01-10 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Suozzi | House | sale | 2021-09-23 | 2020-07-30 | $15–50K |
| Thomas Suozzi | House | purchase | 2021-09-23 | 2020-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Suozzi | House | purchase | 2021-09-23 | 2020-03-02 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Suozzi | House | purchase | 2021-09-23 | 2020-01-15 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Suozzi | House | purchase | 2021-09-23 | 2020-01-09 | $15–50K |
| Thomas Suozzi | House | purchase | 2021-09-23 | 2019-11-15 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Suozzi | House | sale | 2021-09-23 | 2021-01-15 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2018-03-09 | 2018-03-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2017-03-14 | 2017-02-27 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.