Issued 2026-09-16 at $77.87 · now $77.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DAL has typically landed between $64.68 and $92.99 — a range of −16.9% to +19.4% from the issuance price $77.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($77.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $77.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $77.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $79.35 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $72.51–$86.2
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $64.68–$92.99
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −63.4% | −63.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −63.2% | −63.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −61.6% | −63.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-07-14 | +99.2% | +0.0% | +101.5% |
| 2008-07-11 | +89.6% | −5.9% | +89.6% |
| 2008-10-07 | +83.6% | −1.2% | +101.8% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-6.90
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$184.84
- Analyst target · range $85.00–$125.00$107.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$77.87
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Sear Steven M | officer | Sale | 40,460 @ $93.55 | $3.8M | −27.9% of holding | −15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | HUERTA MICHAEL P | director | Sale | 3,100 @ $94.11 | $292K | −8.7% of holding | −15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Bastian Edward H | director | Sale | 206,510 @ $92.80 | $19.2M | −13.2% of holding | −15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,363,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Carter Peter W | director | Sale | 39,900 @ $92.98 | $3.7M | −8.6% of holding | −15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 424,704 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | BELLEMARE ALAIN | officer | Sale | 35,000 @ $92.72 | $3.2M | −26.9% of holding | −15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | DEWALT DAVID G | director | Sale | 31,756 @ $90.85 | $2.9M | −58.7% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,358 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | BELLEMARE ALAIN | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $81.44 | $2.0M | −20.8% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Ausband Allison C | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $80.90 | $405K | −3.7% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,854 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Ausband Allison C | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $79.00 | $395K | −3.6% of holding | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,854 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Ausband Allison C | officer | Sale | 9,710 @ $76.00 | $738K | −6.5% of holding | +20.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,854 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Ausband Allison C | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $73.50 | $368K | −3.5% of holding | +15.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,854 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | BELLEMARE ALAIN | officer | Sale | 20,621 @ $72.75 | $1.5M | −14.7% of holding | +6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Laughter John E | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $71.61 | $1.1M | −21.6% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Laughter John E | officer | Sale | 69,304 @ $68.15 | $4.7M | −50.0% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,369 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Bastian Edward H | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $70.26 | $7.0M | −6.8% of holding | −0.3% | +3.2% | 1,363,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | HAUENSTEIN GLEN W | officer | Sale | 137,159 @ $75.27 | $10.3M | −32.9% of holding | −18.4% | +9.9% | 280,304 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Sear Steven M | officer | Sale | 38,600 @ $75.05 | $2.9M | −27.0% of holding | −18.4% | +9.9% | 104,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | BELLEMARE ALAIN | officer | Sale | 35,212 @ $75.20 | $2.6M | −20.3% of holding | −18.4% | +9.9% | 138,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | HAUENSTEIN GLEN W | officer | Sale | 165,864 @ $71.00 | $11.8M | −28.4% of holding | −19.2% | +6.8% | 417,463 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | HAUENSTEIN GLEN W | officer | Sale | 123,910 @ $74.77 | $9.3M | −22.9% of holding | −19.2% | +6.8% | 417,463 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Carter Peter W | director | Sale | 27,000 @ $74.82 | $2.0M | −6.0% of holding | −19.2% | +6.8% | 421,744 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Samant Rahul D | officer | Sale | 62,528 @ $70.18 | $4.4M | −74.9% of holding | −13.1% | +17.2% | 20,939 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | HAUENSTEIN GLEN W | officer | Sale | 13,576 @ $71.00 | $964K | −2.3% of holding | −13.1% | +17.2% | 583,327 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Carroll William C | officer | Sale | 5,967 @ $68.10 | $406K | −45.4% of holding | −5.9% | +23.8% | 7,182 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Snell Erik Storey | officer | Sale | 39,420 @ $71.02 | $2.8M | −52.5% of holding | +1.7% | +12.3% | 35,625 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Bastian Edward H | director | Sale | 173,230 @ $71.00 | $12.3M | −21.5% of holding | +0.7% | +11.7% | 632,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | BELLEMARE ALAIN | officer | Sale | 36,000 @ $69.21 | $2.5M | −27.3% of holding | +0.7% | +11.7% | 95,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Carter Peter W | director | Sale | 14,300 @ $70.30 | $1.0M | −7.5% of holding | +0.7% | +11.7% | 177,142 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Samant Rahul D | officer | Sale | 40,460 @ $69.57 | $2.8M | −52.7% of holding | +2.0% | +15.6% | 36,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Sear Steven M | officer | Sale | 31,290 @ $69.69 | $2.2M | −24.3% of holding | +2.0% | +15.6% | 97,505 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | HAUENSTEIN GLEN W | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $70.00 | $1.4M | −9.2% of holding | +2.0% | +15.6% | 197,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-14 | Samant Rahul D | officer | Sale | 16,543 @ $69.57 | $1.2M | −31.3% of holding | +2.0% | +15.6% | 36,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | Laughter John E | officer | Sale | 23,323 @ $62.33 | $1.5M | −22.3% of holding | −7.5% | +3.9% | 81,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Carroll William C | officer | Sale | 14,010 @ $61.25 | $858K | −47.0% of holding | −3.6% | +9.6% | 15,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | HAUENSTEIN GLEN W | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $61.31 | $613K | −4.4% of holding | −9.3% | +1.2% | 217,347 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | HUERTA MICHAEL P | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $60.70 | $152K | −7.0% of holding | −5.2% | +4.2% | 33,245 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Bastian Edward H | director | Sale | 35,000 @ $56.28 | $2.0M | −5.2% of holding | +3.5% | +14.7% | 632,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Sear Steven M | officer | Sale | 18,000 @ $55.96 | $1.0M | −15.6% of holding | +3.4% | +13.1% | 97,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Carter Peter W | director | Sale | 17,550 @ $57.19 | $1.0M | −8.4% of holding | +3.4% | +13.1% | 191,442 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | BELLEMARE ALAIN | officer | Sale | 25,241 @ $54.95 | $1.4M | −14.2% of holding | −7.2% | +16.6% | 151,913 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | BELLEMARE ALAIN | officer | Sale | 20,182 @ $56.32 | $1.1M | −13.3% of holding | −7.2% | +16.6% | 131,731 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-11 | Taylor David S | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $39.20 | $392K | +154.8% of holding | +20.1% | +19.7% | 16,460 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-10 | Creed Greg | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $41.84 | $209K | +45.5% of holding | +18.8% | +21.8% | 16,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | Samant Rahul D | officer | Sale | 38,023 @ $64.89 | $2.5M | −41.9% of holding | −23.1% | −14.6% | 52,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Samant Rahul D | officer | Sale | 11,270 @ $69.09 | $779K | −23.9% of holding | −18.0% | −26.9% | 35,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Samant Rahul D | officer | Sale | 6,700 @ $69.07 | $463K | −15.7% of holding | −18.0% | −26.9% | 35,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Carroll William C | officer | Sale | 6,783 @ $65.94 | $447K | −40.4% of holding | −11.9% | −25.4% | 10,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Bastian Edward H | director | Sale | 91,710 @ $69.85 | $6.4M | −17.3% of holding | −10.4% | −24.1% | 439,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Carroll William C | officer | Sale | 8,400 @ $66.02 | $555K | −29.8% of holding | −3.8% | −20.8% | 19,756 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
247 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Sear Steven M | officer | Option exercise | 40,460 | 144,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sear Steven M | officer | Option exercise | 40,460 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Bastian Edward H | director | Option exercise | 206,510 | 1,569,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Carter Peter W | director | Option exercise | 39,900 | 464,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | BELLEMARE ALAIN | officer | Option exercise | 35,000 | 130,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | BELLEMARE ALAIN | officer | Option exercise | 35,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Bastian Edward H | director | Option exercise | 206,510 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Carter Peter W | director | Option exercise | 39,900 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Rial Sergio | director | Withheld for tax | 1,272 | 34,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Creed Greg | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 6,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Beck Christophe | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 6,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Black Maria | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 10,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Chiang Willie CW | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 10,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | DEWALT DAVID G | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 85,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Rial Sergio | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 37,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | HUERTA MICHAEL P | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 35,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Black Maria | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 10,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Creed Greg | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 6,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | PRABHU VASANT M | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 15,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Chiang Willie CW | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 10,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Waller Kathy N | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 48,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | McKenna Judith J | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 6,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Beck Christophe | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 6,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Taylor David S | director | Award / grant | 3,810 | 126,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hale Leslie D. | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 21,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | DEWALT DAVID G | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 85,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | HUERTA MICHAEL P | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 35,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Hale Leslie D. | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 21,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | McKenna Judith J | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 6,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | PRABHU VASANT M | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 15,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Rial Sergio | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 37,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Taylor David S | director | Award / grant | 3,810 | 126,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Waller Kathy N | director | Award / grant | 2,380 | 48,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Ausband Allison C | officer | Option exercise | 9,710 | 148,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Ausband Allison C | officer | Option exercise | 9,710 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | McConnell Julia Ann | officer | Award / grant | 740 | 18,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | McConnell Julia Ann | officer | Award / grant | 740 | 18,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Laughter John E | officer | Option exercise | 13,460 | 129,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Laughter John E | officer | Option exercise | 9,080 | 138,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Laughter John E | officer | Option exercise | 13,460 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-06-22 | 2015-05-08 | $15–50K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.