Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.48 · now $21.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CZWI has typically landed between $18.98 and $24.32 — a range of −11.7% to +13.2% from the issuance price $21.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,997 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CZWI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.48 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.74 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.65–$22.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.98–$24.32
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −54.4% | −54.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-04 | −51.2% | −51.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −50.3% | −53.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-06 | +44.1% | +0.0% | +44.1% |
| 2020-04-03 | +41.4% | +0.0% | +42.8% |
| 2020-04-02 | +40.2% | −1.4% | +40.8% |
4,997 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $20.50 | $21K | +1.9% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,480 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | FELBER FRANCIS E | director | Purchase | 500 @ $20.25 | $10K | +2.0% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,795 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | MOLL JAMES D | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $20.50 | $21K | −2.8% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,463 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | MOLL JAMES D | director | Sale | 500 @ $20.75 | $10K | −1.5% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,963 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | FELBER FRANCIS E | director | Purchase | 500 @ $20.60 | $10K | +2.4% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,450 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | MOLL JAMES D | director | Sale | 500 @ $20.59 | $10K | −1.5% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,463 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | MOLL JAMES D | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $20.96 | $40K | −4.9% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | MOLL JAMES D | director | Sale | 876 @ $21.08 | $18K | −2.4% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | MOLL JAMES D | director | Sale | 124 @ $21.11 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | MOLL JAMES D | director | Sale | 100 @ $20.98 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,463 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Purchase | 450 @ $21.13 | $10K | +34.6% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,750 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Purchase | 300 @ $21.20 | $6K | +17.1% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,050 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Olson Timothy L | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $20.95 | $21K | +3.9% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,684 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | FELBER FRANCIS E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $20.60 | $21K | +5.0% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-30 | Conner Michael R | director | Purchase | 1,100 @ $20.95 | $23K | +7.4% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,986 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Conner Michael R | director | Purchase | 1,600 @ $15.03 | $24K | +12.0% of holding | +6.4% | +18.3% | 14,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Olson Timothy L | director | Purchase | 1,471 @ $14.99 | $22K | +6.1% of holding | +6.9% | +13.9% | 25,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | FELBER FRANCIS E | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $14.80 | $44K | +17.7% of holding | +10.1% | +12.9% | 19,950 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-31 | SKARVAN KATHLEEN | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $14.74 | $15K | +333.3% of holding | +10.1% | +12.9% | 1,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
31 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 92,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BROUCEK JAMES S | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 24,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BROUCEK JAMES S | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 6,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 87,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | JOHNSON REBECCA | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 6,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | JOHNSON REBECCA | officer | Option exercise | 2,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Award / grant | 3,325 | 83,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | BROUCEK JAMES S | officer | Award / grant | 1,733 | 22,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Withheld for tax | 1,226 | 82,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | BROUCEK JAMES S | officer | Withheld for tax | 632 | 22,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Withheld for tax | 663 | 80,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | BROUCEK JAMES S | officer | Withheld for tax | 339 | 20,995 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 81,168 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-09 | FELBER FRANCIS E | director | Other acquisition | 7,690 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-09 | FELBER FRANCIS E | director | Other acquisition | 3,845 | 23,795 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Option exercise | 3,000 | 76,168 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Option exercise | 3,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Withheld for tax | 465 | 73,086 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-27 | BROUCEK JAMES S | officer | Withheld for tax | 283 | 21,334 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-23 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Award / grant | 4,985 | 75,394 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-23 | BROUCEK JAMES S | officer | Award / grant | 2,598 | 22,570 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-23 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Withheld for tax | 1,843 | 73,551 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-23 | BROUCEK JAMES S | officer | Withheld for tax | 953 | 21,617 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-19 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Withheld for tax | 661 | 70,409 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-19 | BROUCEK JAMES S | officer | Withheld for tax | 337 | 19,972 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-19 | JOHNSON REBECCA | officer | Withheld for tax | 175 | 4,954 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-12 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 71,070 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-12 | Bianchi Stephen M | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 18,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.