CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.67 · now $29.67 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CZR has typically landed between $23.56 and $35.59 — a range of −20.6% to +20.0% from the issuance price $29.67.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,983 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-09-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.67) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CZR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.67 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$23.56worst · -20.6%$35.59best · +20.0%
  • now $29.67 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $29.2 (-1.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.68–$31.73
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $23.56–$35.59
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,983 windows spanning 2014-09-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−89.7%−89.7%+0.9%
2020-02-19−88.8%−89.8%+0.0%
2020-02-20−87.3%−89.8%+0.0%
3 best
2014-09-18+2798.6%+0.0%+3088.4%
2014-09-19+2754.1%+0.0%+3000.8%
2020-05-06+142.0%+0.0%+142.0%

2,983 overlapping windows · 2014-09-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
42%
+0.6%
n=12
Feb
50%
+4.8%
n=12
Mar
42%
−6.2%
n=12
Apr
75%
+9.9%
n=12
May
58%
+7.8%
n=12
Jun
50%
+0.5%
n=12
Jul
50%
+0.3%
n=12
Aug
50%
+5.3%
n=12
Sep
67%
+1.3%
n=12
Oct
33%
−4.1%
n=12
Nov
75%
+12.1%
n=12
Dec
67%
+2.0%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$30$182026-09-15: 1 insider sale, $212K — TOMICK DAVID P2026-09-14: 1 insider sale, $208K — TOMICK DAVID P2026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $208K — TOMICK DAVID P2026-09-10: 1 insider sale, $208K — TOMICK DAVID P2026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Jones Blackhurst Janis L2026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $6.2M — Yunker Bret2026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Jones Josh2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $498K — Pegram Michael E2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $731K — Pegram Michael E2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Pegram Michael E2026-06-09: 2 insider sales, $3.4M — Quatmann Edmund L Jr, Pegram Michael E2026-06-08: 2 insider sales, $854K — Pegram Michael E …2026-06-02: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — Pegram Michael E …2025-10-31: 1 insider purchase, $19K — Biumi Bonnie2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $19K2026-06: 9 open-market sales, $8.6M2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $8.9M2026-09: 4 open-market sales, $835K↑ buys↓ salesdirector TOMICK DAVID P — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TOMICK DAVID P — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector TOMICK DAVID P — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradedirector TOMICK DAVID P — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Jones Blackhurst Janis L — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Yunker Bret — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Jones Josh — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Pegram Michael E — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed same daydirector Pegram Michael E — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pegram Michael E — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed same dayofficer Quatmann Edmund L Jr — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pegram Michael E — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pegram Michael E — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Pegram Michael E — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Pegram Michael E — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pegram Michael E — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Biumi Bonnie — Purchase on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15TOMICK DAVID PdirectorSale7,142 @ $29.71$212K−28.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open17,769Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14TOMICK DAVID PdirectorSale7,000 @ $29.66$208K−21.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open24,911Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-11TOMICK DAVID PdirectorSale7,000 @ $29.68$208K−18.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open31,911Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-09-10TOMICK DAVID PdirectorSale7,000 @ $29.67$208K−15.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open38,911Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-27Jones Blackhurst Janis LdirectorSale33,899 @ $29.63$1.0M−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19Yunker BretofficerSale208,134 @ $29.62$6.2M−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-14Jones JoshofficerSale59,507 @ $29.72$1.8M−100.0% of holding+2.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-12Pegram Michael EdirectorSale16,897 @ $29.46$498K−100.0% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-11Pegram Michael EdirectorSale24,800 @ $29.47$731K−59.5% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open16,897Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10Pegram Michael EdirectorSale50,000 @ $29.41$1.5M−54.5% of holding−2.9%not yet — horizon still open41,697Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-09Quatmann Edmund L JrofficerSale81,566 @ $29.35$2.4M−81.7% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open18,263Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09Pegram Michael EdirectorSale36,027 @ $29.31$1.1M−28.2% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open91,697Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08Pegram Michael EdirectorSale15,200 @ $29.20$444K−100.0% of holding−0.4%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08Pegram Michael EdirectorSale13,973 @ $29.36$410K−9.9% of holding−0.4%not yet — horizon still open127,724Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02Pegram Michael EdirectorSale50,000 @ $29.20$1.5M−26.1% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open141,697Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02Pegram Michael EdirectorSale5,000 @ $29.19$146K−100.0% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-31Biumi BonniedirectorPurchase1,000 @ $18.69$19K+3.1% of holding+15.4%+33.1%32,780Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-07KORNSTEIN DON RdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $27.00$108K+7.7% of holding−4.5%−20.7%56,255Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-03TOMICK DAVID PdirectorPurchase1,850 @ $33.36$62K+5.2% of holding−17.5%−28.1%37,392Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2023-05-16Pegram Michael EdirectorPurchase2,700 @ $42.27$114K+21.6% of holding+13.5%−0.2%15,200Form 4 · filed 1121 days after the trade
2023-05-12Pegram Michael EdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $42.80$107K+25.0% of holding+11.6%−6.4%12,500Form 4 · filed 1125 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

169 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-02-17Reeg ThomasdirectorWithheld for tax10,086285,843Form 4
2026-02-17Carano Anthony L.officerWithheld for tax4,539309,861Form 4
2026-02-17Yunker BretofficerWithheld for tax3,866208,134Form 4
2026-02-17Quatmann Edmund L JrofficerWithheld for tax1,94499,829Form 4
2026-02-17Lepori StephaniedirectorWithheld for tax1,56981,650Form 4
2026-02-17Jones JoshofficerWithheld for tax92559,507Form 4
2026-02-17Carano Gary L.directorWithheld for tax841281,540Form 4
2026-02-17Quatmann Edmund L JrofficerAward / grant4,413101,773Form 4
2026-02-17Carano Gary L.directorAward / grant2,135282,381Form 4
2026-02-17Lepori StephaniedirectorAward / grant3,98683,219Form 4
2026-02-17Carano Anthony L.officerAward / grant11,533314,400Form 4
2026-02-17Jones JoshofficerAward / grant2,34960,432Form 4
2026-02-17Yunker BretofficerAward / grant9,824212,000Form 4
2026-02-17Reeg ThomasdirectorAward / grant25,629295,929Form 4
2026-01-29Reeg ThomasdirectorWithheld for tax26,438362,231Form 4
2026-01-29Carano Anthony L.officerWithheld for tax21,014302,867Form 4
2026-01-29Reeg ThomasdirectorWithheld for tax19,388270,300Form 4
2026-01-29Yunker BretofficerWithheld for tax17,423202,176Form 4
2026-01-29Quatmann Edmund L JrofficerWithheld for tax10,25297,360Form 4
2026-01-29Lepori StephaniedirectorWithheld for tax8,38779,233Form 4
2026-01-29Jones JoshofficerWithheld for tax4,32058,083Form 4
2026-01-29Carano Gary L.directorWithheld for tax4,011280,246Form 4
2026-01-29Carano Anthony L.officerOption exercise15,99815,998Form 4
2026-01-29Lepori StephaniedirectorOption exercise5,0630Form 4
2026-01-29Lepori StephaniedirectorOption exercise6,6096,609Form 4
2026-01-29Quatmann Edmund L JrofficerOption exercise7,2927,293Form 4
2026-01-29Quatmann Edmund L JrofficerOption exercise10,37220,745Form 4
2026-01-29Reeg ThomasdirectorOption exercise67,185388,669Form 4
2026-01-29Reeg ThomasdirectorOption exercise49,269289,688Form 4
2026-01-29Carano Gary L.directorOption exercise9,223284,257Form 4
2026-01-29Carano Gary L.directorOption exercise2,7120Form 4
2026-01-29Carano Gary L.directorOption exercise2,7352,735Form 4
2026-01-29Carano Anthony L.officerOption exercise53,398323,881Form 4
2026-01-29Carano Anthony L.officerOption exercise14,6460Form 4
2026-01-29Carano Anthony L.officerOption exercise22,57445,690Form 4
2026-01-29Yunker BretofficerOption exercise44,272219,599Form 4
2026-01-29Yunker BretofficerOption exercise18,67037,342Form 4
2026-01-29Quatmann Edmund L JrofficerOption exercise23,269107,612Form 4
2026-01-29Quatmann Edmund L JrofficerOption exercise5,6050Form 4
2026-01-29Reeg ThomasdirectorOption exercise32,5460Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-04-112025-03-31$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-13$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-04-052024-03-20$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.