CXWCoreCivic, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.93 · now $34.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CXW has typically landed between $29.98 and $43.04 — a range of −14.2% to +23.2% from the issuance price $34.93.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CXW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$29.98worst · -14.2%$43.04best · +23.2%
  • now $34.93 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.33 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.2–$37.47
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.98–$43.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2016-08-01−50.8%−50.8%+0.0%
2016-08-02−50.0%−50.0%+0.0%
2020-02-21−49.8%−49.8%+0.0%
3 best
2024-10-11+83.3%+0.0%+83.3%
2016-11-08+76.3%+0.0%+76.3%
2024-10-10+74.8%+0.0%+74.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Feb
60%
−0.5%
n=20
Mar
60%
+3.0%
n=20
Apr
70%
+3.6%
n=20
May
50%
+0.1%
n=20
Jun
45%
+2.7%
n=20
Jul
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Aug
50%
−1.2%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.4%
n=20
Oct
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Nov
45%
+8.0%
n=20
Dec
40%
−1.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$35$162026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $697K — Swenson Daren2026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $406K — Carter, Cole G.2026-08-26: 2 insider sales, $531K — Grande Anthony L, PRANN JOHN R JR2026-08-24: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — Emkes Mark A, Grande Anthony L2026-08-21: 2 insider sales, $2.5M — GARFINKLE DAVID, PRANN JOHN R JR2026-08-17: 3 insider sales, $4.0M — GARFINKLE DAVID, PRANN JOHN R JR, Grande Anthony L2026-08-14: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — PRANN JOHN R JR, Lappin Harley G.2026-08-13: 4 insider sales, $1.0M — Lappin Harley G., MARSHALL THURGOOD JR, Grande Anthony L, GARFINKLE DAVID2026-08-12: 3 insider sales, $4.4M — Mayberry Lucibeth, Murphy Devin Ignatius, GARFINKLE DAVID2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $372K — Carter, Cole G.2026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $381K — Carter, Cole G.2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $263K — Carter, Cole G.2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $258K — Carter, Cole G.2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $237K — Carter, Cole G.2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $220K — Carter, Cole G.2025-09-11: 1 insider sale, $476K — Grande Anthony L2025-09-09: 2 insider sales, $370K — Grande Anthony L, MARSHALL THURGOOD JR2025-09-08: 1 insider sale, $196K — Grande Anthony L2025-09: 4 open-market sales, $1.0M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $220K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $237K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $258K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $263K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $381K2026-08: 19 open-market sales, $15.1M2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Swenson Daren — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed same dayofficer Carter, Cole G. — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed same dayofficer Grande Anthony L — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed same daydirector PRANN JOHN R JR — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed same daydirector Emkes Mark A — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Grande Anthony L — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARFINKLE DAVID — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed same daydirector PRANN JOHN R JR — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed same daydirector GARFINKLE DAVID — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector PRANN JOHN R JR — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grande Anthony L — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed same daydirector PRANN JOHN R JR — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed same daydirector Lappin Harley G. — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed same daydirector Lappin Harley G. — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MARSHALL THURGOOD JR — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grande Anthony L — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GARFINKLE DAVID — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed same dayofficer Mayberry Lucibeth — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed same daydirector Murphy Devin Ignatius — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed same daydirector GARFINKLE DAVID — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Carter, Cole G. — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed same dayofficer Carter, Cole G. — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed same dayofficer Carter, Cole G. — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed same dayofficer Carter, Cole G. — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed same dayofficer Carter, Cole G. — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed same dayofficer Carter, Cole G. — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed same dayofficer Grande Anthony L — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grande Anthony L — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MARSHALL THURGOOD JR — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grande Anthony L — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Swenson DarenofficerSale20,000 @ $34.85$697K−12.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open142,666Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01Carter, Cole G.officerSale12,500 @ $32.44$406K−6.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open178,383Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-26Grande Anthony LofficerSale12,564 @ $33.85$425K−8.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open144,782Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-26PRANN JOHN R JRdirectorSale3,098 @ $34.00$105K−38.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-24Emkes Mark AdirectorSale30,000 @ $34.25$1.0M−17.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open141,274Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-24Grande Anthony LofficerSale7,436 @ $34.25$255K−4.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open157,346Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-21GARFINKLE DAVIDdirectorSale50,000 @ $33.96$1.7M−14.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open293,353Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-21PRANN JOHN R JRdirectorSale22,298 @ $34.00$758K−73.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,098Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17GARFINKLE DAVIDdirectorSale50,000 @ $33.76$1.7M−12.7% of holding+6.4%not yet — horizon still open343,353Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17PRANN JOHN R JRdirectorSale40,000 @ $33.54$1.3M−56.8% of holding+6.4%not yet — horizon still open30,396Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Grande Anthony LofficerSale29,199 @ $33.61$981K−15.1% of holding+6.4%not yet — horizon still open164,782Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-14PRANN JOHN R JRdirectorSale30,000 @ $32.21$966K−29.9% of holding+10.2%not yet — horizon still open70,396Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-14Lappin Harley G.directorSale3,000 @ $32.69$98K−5.6% of holding+10.2%not yet — horizon still open50,328Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-13Lappin Harley G.directorSale22,032 @ $33.02$727K−29.2% of holding+10.5%not yet — horizon still open53,328Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13MARSHALL THURGOOD JRdirectorSale7,100 @ $34.00$241K−13.6% of holding+10.5%not yet — horizon still open45,274Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13Grande Anthony LofficerSale801 @ $34.00$27K−0.4% of holding+10.5%not yet — horizon still open193,981Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13GARFINKLE DAVIDdirectorSale491 @ $34.03$17K−0.1% of holding+10.5%not yet — horizon still open393,353Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-12Mayberry LucibethofficerSale120,000 @ $33.29$4.0M−44.6% of holding+5.0%not yet — horizon still open149,329Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-12Murphy Devin IgnatiusdirectorSale8,098 @ $33.79$274K−11.3% of holding+5.0%not yet — horizon still open63,826Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-12GARFINKLE DAVIDdirectorSale3,170 @ $34.27$109K−0.8% of holding+5.0%not yet — horizon still open394,444Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Carter, Cole G.officerSale12,500 @ $29.74$372K−6.1% of holding+7.4%not yet — horizon still open190,883Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-01Carter, Cole G.officerSale12,500 @ $30.46$381K−5.8% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open203,383Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01Carter, Cole G.officerSale12,500 @ $21.00$263K−5.5% of holding+47.6%not yet — horizon still open215,883Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01Carter, Cole G.officerSale12,500 @ $20.64$258K−5.2% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open228,383Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01Carter, Cole G.officerSale12,500 @ $18.94$237K−4.9% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open240,883Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-02Carter, Cole G.officerSale12,500 @ $17.62$220K−4.7% of holding+8.9%+70.3%253,383Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-11Grande Anthony LofficerSale22,500 @ $21.18$476K−14.2% of holding−15.6%−16.3%135,559Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-09Grande Anthony LofficerSale12,500 @ $19.71$246K−7.3% of holding−12.0%−19.0%158,059Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-09MARSHALL THURGOOD JRdirectorSale6,000 @ $20.52$123K−12.0% of holding−12.0%−19.0%44,023Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08Grande Anthony LofficerSale10,000 @ $19.65$196K−5.5% of holding−6.9%−14.7%170,559Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-30Hylton StaciadirectorSale4,000 @ $21.69$87K−4.6% of holding−9.2%−34.4%82,969Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-21Hininger Damon TdirectorSale72,246 @ $22.50$1.6M−7.6% of holding−11.6%−39.4%879,324Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-21GARFINKLE DAVIDdirectorSale900 @ $0.00$0−0.3% of holding−11.6%−39.4%338,931Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20Swindle, Patrick D.officerSale23,000 @ $22.39$515K−8.7% of holding−9.8%−40.5%241,630Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19Grande Anthony LofficerSale10,000 @ $22.22$222K−5.2% of holding−9.5%−41.1%180,559Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19PRANN JOHN R JRdirectorSale8,000 @ $22.52$180K−7.4% of holding−9.5%−41.1%100,396Form 4 · filed 238 days after the trade
2025-05-14Mayberry LucibethofficerSale75,000 @ $21.49$1.6M−26.2% of holding−6.1%−37.8%211,232Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-01Carter, Cole G.officerSale8,000 @ $20.08$161K−3.5% of holding+11.1%−20.1%222,872Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Carter, Cole G.officerSale8,000 @ $18.85$151K−3.5% of holding+16.9%+0.3%223,402Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13Churchill David KofficerSale39,639 @ $19.17$760K−22.1% of holding+12.3%+3.1%140,116Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03Carter, Cole G.officerSale8,000 @ $19.99$160K−4.4% of holding−5.6%−5.2%175,847Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-02Carter, Cole G.officerSale8,000 @ $21.77$174K−4.2% of holding−16.0%−5.2%183,847Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09MARSHALL THURGOOD JRdirectorSale5,000 @ $21.37$107K−10.7% of holding+4.4%−2.5%41,925Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-09Hylton StaciadirectorSale1,800 @ $21.37$38K−2.2% of holding+4.4%−2.5%78,871Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

75 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13GARFINKLE DAVIDdirectorGift600393,844Form 4
2026-05-14Emkes Mark AdirectorAward / grant2,824171,274Form 4
2026-02-20Hininger Damon TdirectorWithheld for tax133,6741,002,450Form 4
2026-02-20Grande Anthony LofficerWithheld for tax41,145194,782Form 4
2026-02-20GARFINKLE DAVIDdirectorWithheld for tax41,145397,614Form 4
2026-02-20Mayberry LucibethofficerWithheld for tax40,271269,329Form 4
2026-02-20Swindle, Patrick D.officerWithheld for tax39,702316,058Form 4
2026-02-20Carter, Cole G.officerWithheld for tax37,951265,883Form 4
2026-02-20Swenson DarenofficerWithheld for tax9,948162,666Form 4
2026-02-20Swenson DarenofficerAward / grant16,164172,614Form 4
2026-02-20Carter, Cole G.officerAward / grant59,846303,834Form 4
2026-02-20Grande Anthony LofficerAward / grant62,781235,927Form 4
2026-02-20Hininger Damon TdirectorAward / grant256,8001,136,124Form 4
2026-02-20Swindle, Patrick D.officerAward / grant60,583355,760Form 4
2026-02-20Mayberry LucibethofficerAward / grant61,450309,600Form 4
2026-02-20GARFINKLE DAVIDdirectorAward / grant62,781438,759Form 4
2026-02-18Stacey TankdirectorAward / grant8,35114,833Form 4
2026-02-18Emkes Mark AdirectorAward / grant8,351168,450Form 4
2026-02-18Tran Nina AdirectorAward / grant8,35114,833Form 4
2026-02-18FISCHER ALEXANDER RdirectorAward / grant8,35130,775Form 4
2026-02-18Smith S. DawndirectorAward / grant8,35114,833Form 4
2026-02-18Murphy Devin IgnatiusdirectorAward / grant8,35171,924Form 4
2026-02-18MARSHALL THURGOOD JRdirectorAward / grant8,35152,374Form 4
2026-02-18Lappin Harley G.directorAward / grant8,35175,360Form 4
2026-02-18Hylton StaciadirectorAward / grant8,35191,320Form 4
2026-02-18Hernandez-Blades CatherinedirectorAward / grant8,35124,639Form 4
2026-02-17Swindle, Patrick D.officerAward / grant53,547295,177Form 4
2026-02-17Swenson DarenofficerAward / grant28,090156,450Form 4
2026-02-17Mayberry LucibethofficerAward / grant36,918248,150Form 4
2026-02-17Groschen Laura AofficerAward / grant26,75277,720Form 4
2026-02-17Grande Anthony LofficerAward / grant37,587173,146Form 4
2026-02-17GARFINKLE DAVIDdirectorAward / grant37,587375,978Form 4
2026-02-17Carter, Cole G.officerAward / grant36,116243,988Form 4
2026-01-05Groschen Laura AofficerAward / grant50,96850,968Form 4
2025-12-31FISCHER ALEXANDER RdirectorAward / grant6,13622,424Form 4
2025-12-10GARFINKLE DAVIDdirectorGift540338,391Form 4
2025-05-16Carter, Cole G.officerGift15,000207,872Form 4
2025-05-15Stacey TankdirectorAward / grant6,4826,482Form 4
2025-05-15Tran Nina AdirectorAward / grant6,4826,482Form 4
2025-05-15Smith S. DawndirectorAward / grant6,4826,482Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.