CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc.Industrials · Waste Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $90.06 · now $90.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CWST has typically landed between $80.93 and $100.09 — a range of −10.1% to +11.1% from the issuance price $90.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($90.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CWST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $90.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$80.93worst · -10.1%$100.09best · +11.1%
  • now $90.06 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $90.56 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $86.24–$94.89
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $80.93–$100.09
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-10−77.4%−77.4%+2.9%
2009-02-05−76.1%−76.1%+11.6%
2009-02-11−76.0%−78.0%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-12+225.5%+0.0%+238.2%
2009-03-13+180.0%+0.0%+210.0%
2009-03-11+168.7%−17.9%+177.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.7%
n=20
Feb
45%
−1.1%
n=20
Mar
50%
+1.3%
n=20
Apr
50%
+2.6%
n=20
May
60%
+0.6%
n=20
Jun
65%
+1.9%
n=20
Jul
75%
+5.3%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Sep
35%
−0.9%
n=20
Oct
65%
+2.8%
n=20
Nov
65%
+5.8%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$107$752026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $105K — BURKE MICHAEL K2026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $102K — BURKE MICHAEL K2026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $122K — CASELLA DOUGLAS R2026-08-13: 2 insider sales, $1.4M — CASELLA DOUGLAS R …2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $202K — BURKE MICHAEL K2026-05-19: 3 insider sales, $1.1M — Coletta Edmond …2026-03-16: 6 insider sales, $332K — CASELLA JOHN W, Coletta Edmond, Helgeson Bradford John, Sayward Shelley E. …2026-03-12: 5 insider sales, $146K — CASELLA JOHN W, Coletta Edmond, Sayward Shelley E., Steves Sean …2026-02-27: 5 insider sales, $1.3M — CASELLA JOHN W, Coletta Edmond, Sayward Shelley E., Steves Sean …2025-12-08: 1 insider sale, $700K — Coletta Edmond2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $23K — Helgeson Bradford John2025-11-04: 1 insider sale, $100K — Green Emily Nagle2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $103K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $123K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $700K2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-03: 11 open-market sales, $478K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $105K↑ buys↓ salesdirector BURKE MICHAEL K — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed same daydirector BURKE MICHAEL K — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed same daydirector CASELLA DOUGLAS R — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed same daydirector CASELLA DOUGLAS R — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CASELLA DOUGLAS R — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BURKE MICHAEL K — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Coletta Edmond — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Coletta Edmond — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Coletta Edmond — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 3 days after the tradedirector CASELLA JOHN W — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed same dayofficer Coletta Edmond — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed same dayofficer Helgeson Bradford John — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed same dayofficer Sayward Shelley E. — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed same dayofficer Steves Sean — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed same dayofficer Drohan Kevin — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed same daydirector CASELLA JOHN W — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Coletta Edmond — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Sayward Shelley E. — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Steves Sean — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Drohan Kevin — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CASELLA JOHN W — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Coletta Edmond — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Sayward Shelley E. — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Steves Sean — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Drohan Kevin — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Coletta Edmond — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Helgeson Bradford John — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Green Emily Nagle — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03BURKE MICHAEL KdirectorSale1,100 @ $95.26$105K−7.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open13,641Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-26BURKE MICHAEL KdirectorSale1,100 @ $92.99$102K−6.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open14,741Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-14CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorSale1,343 @ $91.12$122K−1.5% of holding+2.0%not yet — horizon still open90,141Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-13CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorSale13,319 @ $91.07$1.2M−12.7% of holding+2.1%not yet — horizon still open91,484Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorSale1,838 @ $90.89$167K−1.7% of holding+2.1%not yet — horizon still open104,803Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26BURKE MICHAEL KdirectorSale2,305 @ $87.56$202K−14.1% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open14,048Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Coletta EdmondofficerSale6,000 @ $89.03$534K−3.9% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open146,618Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-19Coletta EdmondofficerSale4,907 @ $90.07$442K−3.4% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open140,118Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-19Coletta EdmondofficerSale1,593 @ $90.00$143K−1.1% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open145,025Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-16CASELLA JOHN WdirectorSale1,744 @ $87.77$153K−5.4% of holding−12.7%−11.7%30,795Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16Coletta EdmondofficerSale988 @ $87.81$87K−0.6% of holding−12.7%−11.7%152,618Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16Helgeson Bradford JohnofficerSale405 @ $87.73$36K−5.2% of holding−12.7%−11.7%7,342Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16Sayward Shelley E.officerSale362 @ $87.73$32K−1.3% of holding−12.7%−11.7%28,369Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16Steves SeanofficerSale197 @ $87.80$17K−2.1% of holding−12.7%−11.7%9,375Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16Drohan KevinofficerSale85 @ $87.73$7K−1.1% of holding−12.7%−11.7%7,873Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-12CASELLA JOHN WdirectorSale963 @ $90.06$87K−2.9% of holding−9.7%−16.2%32,539Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12Coletta EdmondofficerSale377 @ $89.80$34K−0.2% of holding−9.7%−16.2%153,606Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12Sayward Shelley E.officerSale129 @ $89.71$12K−0.4% of holding−9.7%−16.2%28,731Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12Steves SeanofficerSale97 @ $89.71$9K−1.0% of holding−9.7%−16.2%9,572Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-12Drohan KevinofficerSale55 @ $89.52$5K−0.7% of holding−9.7%−16.2%7,958Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27CASELLA JOHN WdirectorSale6,726 @ $93.10$626K−19.4% of holding−8.2%−12.2%27,989Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Coletta EdmondofficerSale3,812 @ $93.70$357K−2.5% of holding−8.2%−12.2%147,091Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Sayward Shelley E.officerSale1,591 @ $92.91$148K−5.5% of holding−8.2%−12.2%27,206Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Steves SeanofficerSale1,199 @ $92.89$111K−11.0% of holding−8.2%−12.2%9,669Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27Drohan KevinofficerSale675 @ $92.61$63K−8.3% of holding−8.2%−12.2%7,462Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-08Coletta EdmondofficerSale7,000 @ $100.07$700K−4.7% of holding−0.7%−15.0%141,093Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07Helgeson Bradford JohnofficerSale262 @ $87.65$23K−5.0% of holding+7.9%−14.3%4,991Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-04Green Emily NagledirectorSale1,116 @ $89.38$100K−16.5% of holding+3.9%−14.0%5,647Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-04Ligon PaulofficerSale1,000 @ $102.84$103K−5.2% of holding−8.8%−9.2%18,347Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03Ligon PaulofficerSale1,000 @ $116.98$117K−4.9% of holding−7.4%−32.5%19,347Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08CASELLA JOHN WdirectorSale18,093 @ $119.87$2.2M−61.3% of holding−7.4%−44.8%11,416Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06Coletta EdmondofficerSale5,562 @ $119.18$663K−3.6% of holding−10.4%−46.8%150,093Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-16Ligon PaulofficerSale800 @ $117.65$94K−3.6% of holding−16.0%−53.5%21,547Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-16Ligon PaulofficerSale700 @ $119.62$84K−3.3% of holding−16.0%−53.5%20,447Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-16Ligon PaulofficerSale400 @ $118.66$47K−1.9% of holding−16.0%−53.5%21,147Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-16Ligon PaulofficerSale100 @ $120.32$12K−0.5% of holding−16.0%−53.5%20,347Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13Coletta EdmondofficerSale5,000 @ $105.00$525K−3.1% of holding+11.2%−34.2%155,655Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13CASELLA JOHN WdirectorSale865 @ $104.23$90K−2.8% of holding+11.2%−34.2%29,509Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13Coletta EdmondofficerSale456 @ $104.07$47K−0.3% of holding+11.2%−34.2%160,655Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13Sayward Shelley E.officerSale206 @ $103.95$21K−0.8% of holding+11.2%−34.2%24,199Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorSale200 @ $103.93$21K−0.2% of holding+11.2%−34.2%108,748Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13Helgeson Bradford JohnofficerSale197 @ $103.87$20K−3.6% of holding+11.2%−34.2%5,253Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13Steves SeanofficerSale108 @ $104.13$11K−1.4% of holding+11.2%−34.2%7,435Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13Ligon PaulofficerSale57 @ $104.06$6K−0.3% of holding+11.2%−34.2%22,347Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13Drohan KevinofficerSale57 @ $104.00$6K−1.0% of holding+11.2%−34.2%5,685Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12CASELLA JOHN WdirectorSale1,076 @ $107.94$116K−3.3% of holding+14.3%−30.2%31,126Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12CASELLA JOHN WdirectorSale752 @ $106.38$80K−2.4% of holding+14.3%−30.2%30,374Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Coletta EdmondofficerSale459 @ $106.33$49K−0.3% of holding+14.3%−30.2%161,488Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Coletta EdmondofficerSale377 @ $106.35$40K−0.2% of holding+14.3%−30.2%161,111Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorSale272 @ $107.26$29K−0.2% of holding+14.3%−30.2%109,172Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorSale224 @ $106.33$24K−0.2% of holding+14.3%−30.2%108,948Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Sayward Shelley E.officerSale215 @ $106.98$23K−0.9% of holding+14.3%−30.2%24,571Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Sayward Shelley E.officerSale166 @ $106.18$18K−0.7% of holding+14.3%−30.2%24,405Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Steves SeanofficerSale100 @ $106.98$11K−1.3% of holding+14.3%−30.2%7,614Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Drohan KevinofficerSale72 @ $106.97$8K−1.2% of holding+14.3%−30.2%5,801Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Ligon PaulofficerSale71 @ $106.18$8K−0.3% of holding+14.3%−30.2%22,404Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Steves SeanofficerSale71 @ $106.18$8K−0.9% of holding+14.3%−30.2%7,543Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Drohan KevinofficerSale59 @ $106.37$6K−1.0% of holding+14.3%−30.2%5,742Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Ligon PaulofficerSale54 @ $106.89$6K−0.2% of holding+14.3%−30.2%22,475Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-10CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorSale3,158 @ $112.38$355K−2.8% of holding+6.4%−31.5%107,875Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

56 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11Ribar Damian AndrewofficerAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2026-06-08Green Emily NagledirectorGift60016,902Form 4
2026-06-04DOODY JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant1,79313,143Form 4
2026-06-04HULLIGAN WILLIAM PdirectorAward / grant1,7938,161Form 4
2026-06-04Green Emily NagledirectorAward / grant1,79317,502Form 4
2026-06-04Kirk Rose M.directorAward / grant1,7939,835Form 4
2026-06-04Sova GarydirectorAward / grant1,7938,204Form 4
2026-06-04Battles Michael LouisdirectorAward / grant1,79310,289Form 4
2026-06-04CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorAward / grant1,793106,641Form 4
2026-06-04BURKE MICHAEL KdirectorAward / grant1,79315,841Form 4
2026-06-01CASELLA JOHN WdirectorGift30,800167,800Form 4
2026-06-01CASELLA JOHN WdirectorGift36,200129,800Form 4
2026-06-01CASELLA JOHN WdirectorGift36,200170,200Form 4
2026-06-01CASELLA JOHN WdirectorGift30,80026,300Form 4
2026-03-18CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorGift40,000177,000Form 4
2026-03-18CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorGift40,000129,000Form 4
2026-03-17CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorGift33,00024,100Form 4
2026-03-17CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorGift33,000164,000Form 4
2026-03-16Rains Christopher AlanofficerAward / grant989989Form 4
2026-03-12Sayward Shelley E.officerAward / grant1,65428,860Form 4
2026-03-12Helgeson Bradford JohnofficerAward / grant2,7567,747Form 4
2026-03-12CASELLA JOHN WdirectorAward / grant5,51333,502Form 4
2026-03-12Coletta EdmondofficerAward / grant6,892153,983Form 4
2026-03-12Drohan KevinofficerAward / grant5518,013Form 4
2026-02-26Sayward Shelley E.officerAward / grant4,59828,797Form 4
2026-02-26Steves SeanofficerAward / grant3,43310,868Form 4
2026-02-26Coletta EdmondofficerAward / grant9,810150,903Form 4
2026-02-26CASELLA JOHN WdirectorAward / grant23,29934,715Form 4
2026-02-26Drohan KevinofficerAward / grant2,4528,137Form 4
2025-12-08CASELLA DOUGLAS RdirectorGift3,900104,848Form 4
2025-12-08Coletta EdmondofficerGift2,000148,093Form 4
2025-11-05Green Emily NagledirectorGift1,13015,709Form 4
2025-06-05DOODY JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant1,21510,916Form 4
2025-06-05Battles Michael LouisdirectorAward / grant1,2158,496Form 4
2025-06-05Kirk Rose M.directorAward / grant1,2158,042Form 4
2025-06-05Sova GarydirectorAward / grant1,2156,411Form 4
2025-06-05Green Emily NagledirectorAward / grant1,21516,839Form 4
2025-06-05HULLIGAN WILLIAM PdirectorAward / grant1,2156,368Form 4
2025-06-05BURKE MICHAEL KdirectorAward / grant1,21516,353Form 4
2025-06-05DOODY JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant43411,350Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.