CWBCCommunity West BancsharesFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.95 · now $25.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CWBC has typically landed between $22.36 and $30.08 — a range of −13.8% to +15.9% from the issuance price $25.95.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,656 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-11-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CWBC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.36worst · -13.8%$30.08best · +15.9%
  • now $25.95 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.32 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.77–$27.87
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.36–$30.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,656 windows spanning 2019-11-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−42.6%−42.6%+0.0%
2020-02-14−42.0%−42.0%+0.4%
2020-02-12−39.7%−39.7%+0.2%
3 best
2023-11-28+31.0%+0.0%+31.0%
2023-11-30+29.8%+0.0%+30.4%
2020-11-04+29.5%+0.0%+29.5%

1,656 overlapping windows · 2019-11-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
71%
+1.3%
n=7
Feb
43%
+1.2%
n=7
Mar
57%
−5.1%
n=7
Apr
43%
−6.3%
n=7
May
71%
+0.7%
n=7
Jun
71%
+2.6%
n=7
Jul
57%
+3.5%
n=7
Aug
43%
−0.1%
n=7
Sep
29%
−1.5%
n=7
Oct
67%
+3.3%
n=6
Nov
83%
+9.2%
n=6
Dec
57%
+3.9%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$192026-08-31: 2 insider purchases, $6K — CAGLE DAWN M, LIVINGSTON SHANNON R2026-08-21: 2 insider purchases, $8K — STOVESAND KIRK, LOKEY JAMES W2026-08-10: 1 insider purchase, $119K — GILL JAGROOP2026-07-31: 1 insider purchase, $6K — GILL JAGROOP2026-06-01: 2 insider purchases, $5K — CAGLE DAWN M, LIVINGSTON SHANNON R2026-05-22: 1 insider purchase, $6K — STOVESAND KIRK2026-05-05: 1 insider purchase, $4K — SILVA DOROTHEA D2026-05-04: 1 insider purchase, $357 — SILVA DOROTHEA D2026-02-27: 5 insider purchases, $45K — Kim James J, CAGLE DAWN M, Plourd Martin E, LIVINGSTON SHANNON R …2026-02-20: 1 insider purchase, $9K — STOVESAND KIRK2026-01-28: 1 insider purchase, $12K — LOKEY JAMES W2025-11-28: 4 insider purchases, $12K — Plourd Martin E, CAGLE DAWN M, LIVINGSTON SHANNON R, MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAEL2025-11-14: 1 insider purchase, $9K — STOVESAND KIRK2025-08-29: 5 insider purchases, $15K — Plourd Martin E, CAGLE DAWN M, LIVINGSTON SHANNON R, MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAEL …2025-08-15: 2 insider purchases, $10K — STOVESAND KIRK, LOKEY JAMES W2025-08: 7 open-market purchases, $24K2025-11: 5 open-market purchases, $21K2026-01: 1 open-market purchase, $12K2026-02: 6 open-market purchases, $55K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $10K2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $5K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $6K2026-08: 5 open-market purchases, $133K↑ buys↓ salesofficer CAGLE DAWN M — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer LIVINGSTON SHANNON R — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 1 day after the tradedirector STOVESAND KIRK — Purchase on 2026-08-21, filed same daydirector LOKEY JAMES W — Purchase on 2026-08-21, filed 3 days after the tradedirector GILL JAGROOP — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed same daydirector GILL JAGROOP — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer CAGLE DAWN M — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed same dayofficer LIVINGSTON SHANNON R — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed same daydirector STOVESAND KIRK — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SILVA DOROTHEA D — Purchase on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SILVA DOROTHEA D — Purchase on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kim James J — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer CAGLE DAWN M — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Plourd Martin E — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer LIVINGSTON SHANNON R — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAEL — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 5 days after the tradedirector STOVESAND KIRK — Purchase on 2026-02-20, filed same daydirector LOKEY JAMES W — Purchase on 2026-01-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Plourd Martin E — Purchase on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer CAGLE DAWN M — Purchase on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer LIVINGSTON SHANNON R — Purchase on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAEL — Purchase on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradedirector STOVESAND KIRK — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Plourd Martin E — Purchase on 2025-08-29, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer CAGLE DAWN M — Purchase on 2025-08-29, filed 18 days after the tradeofficer LIVINGSTON SHANNON R — Purchase on 2025-08-29, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAEL — Purchase on 2025-08-29, filed 5 days after the tradedirector SILVA DOROTHEA D — Purchase on 2025-08-29, filed 5 days after the tradedirector STOVESAND KIRK — Purchase on 2025-08-15, filed same daydirector LOKEY JAMES W — Purchase on 2025-08-15, filed 6 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31CAGLE DAWN MofficerPurchase188 @ $21.51$4K+1.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open13,632Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31LIVINGSTON SHANNON RofficerPurchase107 @ $21.51$2K+0.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open20,092Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-21STOVESAND KIRKdirectorPurchase255 @ $26.10$7K+0.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open82,844Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-21LOKEY JAMES WdirectorPurchase54 @ $25.92$1K+0.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open15,229Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-10GILL JAGROOPdirectorPurchase4,770 @ $24.88$119K+0.8% of holding+5.8%not yet — horizon still open588,067Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-31GILL JAGROOPdirectorPurchase230 @ $25.00$6K+0.0% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open583,297Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-01CAGLE DAWN MofficerPurchase166 @ $20.91$3K+1.3% of holding+16.3%not yet — horizon still open13,444Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01LIVINGSTON SHANNON RofficerPurchase94 @ $20.91$2K+0.5% of holding+16.3%not yet — horizon still open19,985Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-22STOVESAND KIRKdirectorPurchase257 @ $23.90$6K+0.3% of holding+14.2%not yet — horizon still open82,589Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05SILVA DOROTHEA DdirectorPurchase150 @ $23.57$4K+1.2% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open12,310Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04SILVA DOROTHEA DdirectorPurchase15 @ $23.78$357+0.1% of holding−3.9%not yet — horizon still open12,160Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27Kim James JdirectorPurchase1,089 @ $20.65$22K+1.9% of holding+5.6%−0.5%58,849Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-27CAGLE DAWN MofficerPurchase351 @ $20.65$7K+2.6% of holding+5.6%−0.5%13,724Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-27Plourd Martin EdirectorPurchase282 @ $20.65$6K+0.3% of holding+5.6%−0.5%112,536Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-27LIVINGSTON SHANNON RofficerPurchase266 @ $20.65$5K+1.2% of holding+5.6%−0.5%21,648Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-27MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerPurchase206 @ $20.65$4K+0.8% of holding+5.6%−0.5%24,617Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-20STOVESAND KIRKdirectorPurchase376 @ $24.50$9K+0.5% of holding−2.4%−4.7%78,612Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-28LOKEY JAMES WdirectorPurchase500 @ $23.29$12K+3.4% of holding+1.4%+1.6%15,175Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-28Plourd Martin EdirectorPurchase316 @ $19.19$6K+0.3% of holding−1.4%−4.1%112,754Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-28CAGLE DAWN MofficerPurchase159 @ $19.19$3K+1.2% of holding−1.4%−4.1%13,373Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-28LIVINGSTON SHANNON RofficerPurchase84 @ $19.19$2K+0.4% of holding−1.4%−4.1%21,382Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-28MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerPurchase75 @ $19.19$1K+0.3% of holding−1.4%−4.1%24,411Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-14STOVESAND KIRKdirectorPurchase402 @ $21.37$9K+0.5% of holding+10.5%−0.9%78,236Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-29Plourd Martin EdirectorPurchase441 @ $16.02$7K+0.5% of holding−5.8%+4.4%92,687Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-29CAGLE DAWN MofficerPurchase222 @ $16.02$4K+1.7% of holding−5.8%+4.4%13,214Form 4 · filed 18 days after the trade
2025-08-29LIVINGSTON SHANNON RofficerPurchase118 @ $16.02$2K+0.6% of holding−5.8%+4.4%21,298Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-29MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerPurchase104 @ $16.02$2K+0.4% of holding−5.8%+4.4%24,336Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-29SILVA DOROTHEA DdirectorPurchase17 @ $21.29$362+0.1% of holding−5.8%+4.4%12,145Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-15STOVESAND KIRKdirectorPurchase421 @ $20.30$9K+0.6% of holding+1.8%+16.2%75,234Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-15LOKEY JAMES WdirectorPurchase65 @ $20.30$1K+0.4% of holding+1.8%+16.2%14,675Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-05-30Plourd Martin EdirectorPurchase378 @ $16.02$6K+0.4% of holding+9.9%+12.2%94,633Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30CAGLE DAWN MofficerPurchase190 @ $16.02$3K+1.5% of holding+9.9%+12.2%13,242Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30LIVINGSTON SHANNON RofficerPurchase101 @ $16.02$2K+0.5% of holding+9.9%+12.2%22,085Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-30MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerPurchase89 @ $16.02$1K+0.4% of holding+9.9%+12.2%25,179Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16STOVESAND KIRKdirectorPurchase455 @ $18.65$8K+0.6% of holding−2.7%+4.8%74,813Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16LOKEY JAMES WdirectorPurchase70 @ $18.65$1K+0.5% of holding−2.7%+4.8%14,610Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-09SILVA DOROTHEA DdirectorPurchase84 @ $18.85$2K+0.7% of holding−3.3%+1.3%12,128Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-04-28BARTLEIN ROBERTdirectorPurchase1,001 @ $17.20$17K+0.2% of holding−3.0%−0.5%440,877Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-28BARTLEIN ROBERTdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $17.17$17K+0.2% of holding−3.0%−0.5%439,876Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-25BARTLEIN ROBERTdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $17.18$17K+0.2% of holding−2.3%+1.2%438,876Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-24BARTLEIN ROBERTdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $17.02$17K+0.2% of holding−3.5%−1.5%437,876Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-19SILVA DOROTHEA DdirectorPurchase57 @ $18.26$1K+0.6% of holding−5.3%+3.1%10,225Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-03-13BARTLEIN ROBERTdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $17.86$18K+0.2% of holding−8.3%−0.1%436,876Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-06BARTLEIN ROBERTdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $18.50$19K+0.2% of holding+1.5%+2.5%435,876Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-28Kim James JdirectorPurchase1,600 @ $17.36$28K+2.7% of holding+1.4%+2.8%60,178Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28Plourd Martin EdirectorPurchase424 @ $17.36$7K+0.5% of holding+1.4%+2.8%92,566Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28CAGLE DAWN MofficerPurchase341 @ $17.36$6K+3.0% of holding+1.4%+2.8%11,643Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28LIVINGSTON SHANNON RofficerPurchase156 @ $17.36$3K+1.1% of holding+1.4%+2.8%14,881Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-24LOKEY JAMES WdirectorPurchase68 @ $19.00$1K+0.5% of holding+2.8%+6.7%12,721Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-24Chadwick Suzanne MariedirectorPurchase50 @ $18.82$941+1.5% of holding+2.8%+6.7%3,299Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-21MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerPurchase500 @ $18.90$9K+2.7% of holding+3.7%+7.6%18,872Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-21STOVESAND KIRKdirectorPurchase444 @ $19.00$8K+0.6% of holding+3.7%+7.6%72,539Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-20BARTLEIN ROBERTdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $18.80$19K+0.2% of holding+2.5%+3.1%434,876Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-07Plourd Martin EdirectorSale4,735 @ $19.24$91K−5.4% of holding+0.3%−7.0%82,737Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-07Plourd Martin EdirectorSale2,441 @ $19.29$47K−2.7% of holding+0.3%−7.0%87,472Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-07Plourd Martin EdirectorSale556 @ $19.25$11K−0.6% of holding+0.3%−7.0%89,913Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-16STEVEN MCDONALD DdirectorSale1,860 @ $21.51$40K−0.6% of holding−10.3%−12.6%315,531Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13STEVEN MCDONALD DdirectorSale9,155 @ $21.51$197K−2.8% of holding−11.4%−14.0%317,391Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-08-16MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerPurchase25 @ $19.77$493+0.1% of holding+4.2%−12.4%18,372Form 4 · filed 178 days after the trade
2024-05-17MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerPurchase28 @ $17.36$490+0.2% of holding−6.8%+8.3%18,347Form 4 · filed 269 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

100 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30STEVEN MCDONALD DdirectorGift1,300308,365Form 4
2026-05-30LIVINGSTON SHANNON RofficerWithheld for tax90719,891Form 4
2026-05-30MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerWithheld for tax72622,472Form 4
2026-05-30CAGLE DAWN MofficerWithheld for tax21213,278Form 4
2026-05-17MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerWithheld for tax60323,198Form 4
2026-05-07LIVINGSTON SHANNON RofficerWithheld for tax85020,798Form 4
2026-05-07MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerWithheld for tax81623,801Form 4
2026-05-07CAGLE DAWN MofficerWithheld for tax23413,490Form 4
2026-05-06LIVINGSTON SHANNON RofficerAward / grant5,1815,181Form 4
2026-05-06GILL JAGROOPdirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-06Elliott Frank T. IVdirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-06Plourd Martin EdirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-06SILVA DOROTHEA DdirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-06STEVEN MCDONALD DdirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-06STOVESAND KIRKdirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-06DOYLE DANIEL JdirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-06Stronks Timothy JosephofficerAward / grant2,6942,694Form 4
2026-05-06Kim James JdirectorAward / grant8,3938,393Form 4
2026-05-06Thomas Hinson MichaelofficerAward / grant2,6942,694Form 4
2026-05-06LOKEY JAMES WdirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-06MAJARIAN ANDRIANA DdirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-06MARTIN JEFFREY MICHAELofficerAward / grant4,9744,974Form 4
2026-05-06CAGLE DAWN MofficerAward / grant1,2441,244Form 4
2026-05-06Westerlund DoradirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-06Flautt Robert jdirectorAward / grant1,4511,451Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorWithheld for tax40,74671,790Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise15,800109,683Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise12,83187,781Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise7,900137,254Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise9,480129,354Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise9,243119,874Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise6,10293,883Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise3,16074,950Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise948110,631Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise9,4806,320Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise9,2436,557Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise7,9000Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise9481,422Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise15,8000Form 4
2026-05-01Plourd Martin EdirectorOption exercise6,1029,699Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.