CWCurtiss-Wright Corporationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $570.04 · now $570.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CW has typically landed between $521.65 and $643.53 — a range of −8.5% to +12.9% from the issuance price $570.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($570.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $570.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$521.65worst · -8.5%$643.53best · +12.9%
  • now $570.04 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $586.47 (+2.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $560.54–$612.4
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $521.65–$643.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−47.1%−47.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−46.1%−46.1%+0.0%
2020-02-18−44.7%−44.7%+0.3%
3 best
2020-10-28+44.0%+0.0%+45.9%
2020-10-30+37.9%+0.0%+44.8%
2020-10-27+37.8%−4.4%+39.5%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+1.6%
n=18
Feb
68%
+1.9%
n=19
Mar
53%
−0.6%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.1%
n=19
May
42%
+1.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.6%
n=19
Jul
58%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.6%
n=19
Sep
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.5%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.1%
n=18
Dec
50%
+2.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$793$4772026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $60K — Wyche Larry D2026-08-27: 1 insider sale, $641K — Watts John C2026-08-10: 1 insider purchase, $149K — Lyash Jeffrey J.2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $154K — Watts John C2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Bamford Lynn M2026-06-09: 2 insider sales, $2.1M — Bamford Lynn M, Ogilby Gary A2026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $166K — Watts John C2026-03-18: 2 insider sales, $1.0M — Farkas K Christopher, Ogilby Gary A2026-03-17: 7 insider sales, $3.9M — Bamford Lynn M, Farkas K Christopher, Rayment Kevin, Watts John C …2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — Farkas K Christopher2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $390K — Ogilby Gary A2026-02-04: 6 insider sales, $10.1M — Bamford Lynn M, Farkas K Christopher, Rayment Kevin, Watts John C …2026-01-08: 1 insider sale, $173K — Watts John C2026-01-05: 1 insider sale, $62K — Watts John C2025-12-23: 1 insider sale, $68K — Watts John C2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $96K — Watts John C2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Bamford Lynn M2025-11-11: 2 insider sales, $5.1M — Farkas K Christopher, Bamford Lynn M2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $533K — Watts John C2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $533K2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $7.2M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $68K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $235K2026-02: 8 open-market sales, $12.7M2026-03: 9 open-market sales, $4.9M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $166K2026-06: 4 open-market sales, $4.1M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $149K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $701K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Wyche Larry D — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Watts John C — Sale on 2026-08-27, filed same daydirector Lyash Jeffrey J. — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed same dayofficer Watts John C — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed same daydirector Bamford Lynn M — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Bamford Lynn M — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ogilby Gary A — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Watts John C — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed same dayofficer Farkas K Christopher — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ogilby Gary A — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bamford Lynn M — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Farkas K Christopher — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rayment Kevin — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Watts John C — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McDonald George P. — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ogilby Gary A — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Freda Robert F — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Farkas K Christopher — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed same dayofficer Ogilby Gary A — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed same daydirector Bamford Lynn M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Farkas K Christopher — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rayment Kevin — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Watts John C — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ogilby Gary A — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Freda Robert F — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Watts John C — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Watts John C — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Watts John C — Sale on 2025-12-23, filed 6 days after the tradeofficer Watts John C — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector Bamford Lynn M — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Farkas K Christopher — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bamford Lynn M — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Watts John C — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Wyche Larry DdirectorSale100 @ $596.74$60K−6.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,414Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-27Watts John CofficerSale1,035 @ $619.46$641K−27.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,736Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-10Lyash Jeffrey J.directorPurchase209 @ $711.62$149K+436.2% of holding−17.2%not yet — horizon still open257Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15Watts John CofficerSale200 @ $770.56$154K−5.0% of holding−5.9%not yet — horizon still open3,762Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-12Bamford Lynn MdirectorSale2,500 @ $758.20$1.9M−5.2% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open45,634Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-09Bamford Lynn MdirectorSale2,500 @ $721.72$1.8M−4.9% of holding+0.2%not yet — horizon still open48,134Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09Ogilby Gary AofficerSale399 @ $721.95$288K−15.5% of holding+0.2%not yet — horizon still open2,172Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27Watts John CofficerSale220 @ $752.91$166K−5.3% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open3,962Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-18Farkas K ChristopherofficerSale1,265 @ $689.69$872K−22.9% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open4,253Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-18Ogilby Gary AofficerSale252 @ $689.14$174K−8.9% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open2,571Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Bamford Lynn MdirectorSale3,225 @ $676.70$2.2M−6.0% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open50,634Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Farkas K ChristopherofficerSale918 @ $677.46$622K−14.3% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open5,518Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Rayment KevinofficerSale907 @ $677.38$614K−2.8% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open31,493Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Watts John CofficerSale220 @ $678.11$149K−5.0% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open4,182Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17McDonald George P.officerSale151 @ $678.07$102K−3.5% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open4,210Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Ogilby Gary AofficerSale148 @ $678.30$100K−5.0% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open2,823Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Freda Robert FofficerSale140 @ $678.61$95K−2.6% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open5,343Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18Farkas K ChristopherofficerSale3,105 @ $694.51$2.2M−42.2% of holding+4.0%−30.7%4,253Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-05Ogilby Gary AofficerSale625 @ $624.32$390K−19.6% of holding+14.1%−15.0%2,571Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-04Bamford Lynn MdirectorSale9,327 @ $626.45$5.8M−16.8% of holding+11.1%−13.4%46,192Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Farkas K ChristopherofficerSale2,665 @ $626.33$1.7M−26.6% of holding+11.1%−13.4%7,358Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Rayment KevinofficerSale2,634 @ $626.33$1.6M−8.1% of holding+11.1%−13.4%29,896Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Watts John CofficerSale652 @ $625.57$408K−14.4% of holding+11.1%−13.4%3,890Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Ogilby Gary AofficerSale435 @ $626.56$273K−12.0% of holding+11.1%−13.4%3,196Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Freda Robert FofficerSale418 @ $626.95$262K−7.5% of holding+11.1%−13.4%5,187Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-08Watts John CofficerSale288 @ $600.00$173K−8.3% of holding+11.6%+17.9%3,188Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-05Watts John CofficerSale107 @ $578.84$62K−3.0% of holding+6.8%+20.8%3,476Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-23Watts John CofficerSale118 @ $575.00$68K−3.2% of holding+13.4%+24.8%3,570Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-11-25Watts John CofficerSale175 @ $546.97$96K−4.5% of holding−0.6%+22.0%3,688Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-14Bamford Lynn MdirectorSale3,750 @ $549.07$2.1M−9.6% of holding−2.4%+18.1%35,413Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-11Farkas K ChristopherofficerSale5,047 @ $577.91$2.9M−54.4% of holding−1.9%+20.5%4,236Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Bamford Lynn MdirectorSale3,750 @ $577.79$2.2M−8.7% of holding−1.9%+20.5%39,163Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21Watts John CofficerSale1,110 @ $480.50$533K−22.3% of holding+1.8%+36.5%3,863Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-05Hoechner Bruce D.directorSale1,900 @ $448.00$851K−29.6% of holding+2.3%+6.6%4,523Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-29Watts John CofficerSale450 @ $449.36$202K−8.3% of holding+5.8%+11.9%4,959Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-01Farkas K ChristopherofficerSale4,780 @ $350.00$1.7M−34.1% of holding+20.4%+48.3%9,253Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-18Bamford Lynn MdirectorSale3,131 @ $325.41$1.0M−6.8% of holding+4.8%+35.5%42,887Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-18Rayment KevinofficerSale1,003 @ $325.73$327K−3.7% of holding+4.8%+35.5%25,863Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-18Farkas K ChristopherofficerSale922 @ $325.47$300K−6.2% of holding+4.8%+35.5%14,033Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-18Ferdenzi Paul JotherSale658 @ $325.68$214K−3.3% of holding+4.8%+35.5%19,239Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-18Watts John CofficerSale228 @ $325.41$74K−4.0% of holding+4.8%+35.5%5,409Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-18Ogilby Gary AofficerSale200 @ $325.36$65K−7.2% of holding+4.8%+35.5%2,571Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-18McDonald George P.officerSale148 @ $325.41$48K−7.2% of holding+4.8%+35.5%1,899Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-18Freda Robert FofficerSale136 @ $325.46$44K−2.7% of holding+4.8%+35.5%4,821Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19Ogilby Gary AofficerSale290 @ $333.69$97K−10.9% of holding+5.3%+38.6%2,374Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Bamford Lynn MdirectorSale8,289 @ $346.87$2.9M−17.6% of holding−5.6%+29.8%38,905Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Rayment KevinofficerSale2,664 @ $346.92$924K−9.9% of holding−5.6%+29.8%24,236Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Farkas K ChristopherofficerSale2,453 @ $347.00$851K−16.2% of holding−5.6%+29.8%12,712Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Ferdenzi Paul JotherSale1,907 @ $346.98$662K−9.4% of holding−5.6%+29.8%18,405Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Watts John CofficerSale622 @ $347.05$216K−10.9% of holding−5.6%+29.8%5,072Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Ogilby Gary AofficerSale551 @ $347.03$191K−17.1% of holding−5.6%+29.8%2,664Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-05Freda Robert FofficerSale379 @ $346.96$131K−7.5% of holding−5.6%+29.8%4,667Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Rayment KevinofficerPurchase52 @ $304.12$16K+0.3% of holding−2.1%+29.5%19,966Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Ferdenzi Paul JotherPurchase34 @ $304.12$10K+0.2% of holding−2.1%+29.5%16,022Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Bamford Lynn MdirectorPurchase34 @ $304.12$10K+0.1% of holding−2.1%+29.5%28,448Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06McDonald George P.officerPurchase30 @ $304.12$9K+1.8% of holding−2.1%+29.5%1,672Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Farkas K ChristopherofficerPurchase30 @ $304.12$9K+0.3% of holding−2.1%+29.5%9,253Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Freda Robert FofficerPurchase27 @ $304.12$8K+0.6% of holding−2.1%+29.5%4,280Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-06Watts John CofficerPurchase19 @ $304.12$6K+0.5% of holding−2.1%+29.5%4,202Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-11Bamford Lynn MdirectorSale7,129 @ $368.80$2.6M−19.9% of holding+0.6%+26.7%28,688Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

101 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-06Rayment KevinofficerAward / grant2631,519Form 4
2026-07-06McDonald George P.officerAward / grant254,235Form 4
2026-07-06Farkas K ChristopherofficerAward / grant214,274Form 4
2026-07-06Bamford Lynn MdirectorAward / grant1745,651Form 4
2026-07-06Watts John CofficerAward / grant93,771Form 4
2026-06-01Wallace Peter CdirectorAward / grant2216,209Form 4
2026-05-29MINOR GLENDA JdirectorAward / grant202,491Form 4
2026-05-12MINOR GLENDA JdirectorAward / grant2212,471Form 4
2026-05-07Lyash Jeffrey J.directorAward / grant4848Form 4
2026-03-16Bamford Lynn MdirectorOption exercise7,66714,614Form 4
2026-03-16McDonald George P.officerOption exercise3504,361Form 4
2026-03-16McDonald George P.officerOption exercise3501,112Form 4
2026-03-16Ogilby Gary AofficerOption exercise4002,971Form 4
2026-03-16Ogilby Gary AofficerOption exercise4004,420Form 4
2026-03-16Freda Robert FofficerOption exercise2965,483Form 4
2026-03-16Freda Robert FofficerOption exercise2964,269Form 4
2026-03-16Watts John CofficerOption exercise5124,402Form 4
2026-03-16Watts John CofficerOption exercise512895Form 4
2026-03-16Rayment KevinofficerOption exercise2,50432,400Form 4
2026-03-16Rayment KevinofficerOption exercise2,5043,928Form 4
2026-03-16Farkas K ChristopherofficerOption exercise2,1836,436Form 4
2026-03-16Farkas K ChristopherofficerOption exercise2,1839,366Form 4
2026-03-16Bamford Lynn MdirectorOption exercise7,66753,859Form 4
2026-03-09Freda Robert FofficerAward / grant824,565Form 4
2026-03-09Ogilby Gary AofficerAward / grant1084,820Form 4
2026-03-09Rayment KevinofficerAward / grant6526,432Form 4
2026-03-09Watts John CofficerAward / grant1831,407Form 4
2026-03-09Bamford Lynn MdirectorAward / grant2,73522,281Form 4
2026-03-09Farkas K ChristopherofficerAward / grant64511,549Form 4
2026-03-09McDonald George P.officerAward / grant3041,462Form 4
2026-02-04Moraco Anthony JdirectorAward / grant2565,446Form 4
2026-02-04Wyche Larry DdirectorAward / grant1281,514Form 4
2026-02-03Bamford Lynn MdirectorAward / grant20,26855,519Form 4
2026-02-03Rayment KevinofficerAward / grant6,61832,530Form 4
2026-02-03Farkas K ChristopherofficerAward / grant5,77010,023Form 4
2026-02-03Watts John CofficerAward / grant1,3544,542Form 4
2026-02-03Ogilby Gary AofficerAward / grant1,0603,631Form 4
2026-02-03Freda Robert FofficerAward / grant7845,605Form 4
2026-01-20FLATT DEAN MdirectorAward / grant21812,647Form 4
2026-01-05Bamford Lynn MdirectorAward / grant2235,251Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-07-10$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-07-22$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-23$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-23$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-17$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-22$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-21$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-22$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-17$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-24$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-16$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-16$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-03-142023-02-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.