CVSA · TickerCove

CVSACovista Inc.Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $127.20 · now $127.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CVSA has typically landed between $108.00 and $154.25 — a range of −15.1% to +21.3% from the issuance price $127.20.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($127.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$127.2 · 58% of range

$89.36 low$154.45 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.3%

typical move · IQR 13.5%

−15.1%worst (p90)+21.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CVSA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $127.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $127.2 (+0.0%)
typical $130.09 (+2.3%)
middle 50% $121.5–$138.68
90% range $108–$154.25

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-10-27	−41.8%	−41.9%	+0.1%
2012-07-05	−41.7%	−41.7%	+0.0%
2025-10-24	−41.6%	−41.6%	+0.7%
3 best
2022-02-23	+51.2%	+0.0%	+51.2%
2022-02-24	+49.5%	+0.0%	+49.5%
2007-10-10	+45.5%	−5.9%	+45.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

65%

+1.7%

n=20

Feb

35%

−3.2%

n=20

Mar

55%

+2.3%

n=20

Apr

50%

+1.7%

n=20

May

75%

+3.4%

n=20

Jun

55%

+0.9%

n=20

Jul

65%

+2.4%

n=20

Aug

45%

−3.4%

n=20

Sep

55%

+1.3%

n=20

Oct

60%

+4.6%

n=20

Nov

60%

+4.1%

n=20

Dec

65%

+1.8%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Sale	1,802 @ $137.18	$247K	−26.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	5,083	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Sale	3,545 @ $130.34	$462K	−0.8% of holding	−0.6%	not yet — horizon still open	415,197	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-07	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Sale	4,526 @ $135.81	$615K	−13.7% of holding	−10.3%	not yet — horizon still open	28,544	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Sale	2,186 @ $135.15	$295K	−4.3% of holding	−10.3%	not yet — horizon still open	48,306	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-13	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Sale	5,291 @ $132.75	$702K	−1.2% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	418,742	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-08	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Sale	2,439 @ $135.34	$330K	−6.9% of holding	−8.1%	not yet — horizon still open	33,070	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-08	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Sale	2,414 @ $135.39	$327K	−4.6% of holding	−8.1%	not yet — horizon still open	50,492	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-07	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Sale	2,900 @ $135.41	$393K	−5.2% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	52,906	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-07	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Sale	2,650 @ $135.40	$359K	−6.9% of holding	−7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	35,509	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Sale	2,529 @ $130.78	$331K	−0.6% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	424,033	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Sale	2,762 @ $130.14	$359K	−0.6% of holding	−1.3%	not yet — horizon still open	426,562	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Sale	15,874 @ $131.25	$2.1M	−3.6% of holding	−5.6%	not yet — horizon still open	429,324	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-08	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $126.21	$1.3M	−15.2% of holding	−5.6%	not yet — horizon still open	55,806	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-08	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Sale	9,615 @ $127.03	$1.2M	−20.1% of holding	−5.6%	not yet — horizon still open	38,159	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-11	MALAFRONTE MICHAEL W	director	Purchase	8,890 @ $100.94	$897K	+53.9% of holding	+10.1%	+9.6%	25,395	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10	MALAFRONTE MICHAEL W	director	Purchase	15,305 @ $100.86	$1.5M	+1275.4% of holding	+12.3%	+11.3%	16,505	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10	MALAFRONTE MICHAEL W	director	Purchase	11,841 @ $100.86	$1.2M	+11.7% of holding	+12.3%	+11.3%	113,205	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03	MALAFRONTE MICHAEL W	director	Purchase	1,200 @ $97.97	$118K	ownership Δ n/a	+17.0%	+17.5%	1,200	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

29 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	MALAFRONTE MICHAEL W	director	Gift	2,500	110,705	Form 4
2026-08-23	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Award / grant	75,920	511,097	Form 4
2026-08-23	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Award / grant	53,144	458,720	Form 4
2026-08-23	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Withheld for tax	33,633	477,464	Form 4
2026-08-23	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Withheld for tax	23,543	435,177	Form 4
2026-08-23	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Award / grant	10,080	61,037	Form 4
2026-08-23	Beard, Stephen W.	director	Withheld for tax	9,621	405,576	Form 4
2026-08-23	Betz Michael	officer	Award / grant	7,320	39,661	Form 4
2026-08-23	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Award / grant	7,056	54,083	Form 4
2026-08-23	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Award / grant	6,060	36,140	Form 4
2026-08-23	Betz Michael	officer	Award / grant	5,124	41,483	Form 4
2026-08-23	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,466	56,571	Form 4
2026-08-23	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Award / grant	4,242	32,002	Form 4
2026-08-23	Betz Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	3,302	36,359	Form 4
2026-08-23	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,126	50,957	Form 4
2026-08-23	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,746	33,394	Form 4
2026-08-23	Betz Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	2,311	39,172	Form 4
2026-08-23	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,922	30,080	Form 4
2026-08-23	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Award / grant	1,500	7,325	Form 4
2026-08-23	Phelan Robert J.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,279	47,027	Form 4
2026-08-23	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Award / grant	1,050	6,133	Form 4
2026-08-23	Betz Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	945	32,341	Form 4
2026-08-23	BECK DOUGLAS G.	officer	Withheld for tax	784	27,760	Form 4
2026-08-23	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Withheld for tax	440	6,885	Form 4
2026-08-23	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Withheld for tax	308	5,825	Form 4
2026-08-23	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Withheld for tax	188	5,083	Form 4
2026-07-15	Manning Amelia	officer	Award / grant	4,317	4,317	Form 4
2026-05-18	Gangadharan Manjunath	officer	Withheld for tax	426	5,271	Form 4
2026-04-15	Liles Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	448	13,103	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i