CVSCVS Health Corp.Healthcare · Medical - Healthcare Plansas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $91.72 · now $91.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CVS has typically landed between $80.74 and $104.82 — a range of −12.0% to +14.3% from the issuance price $91.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($91.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CVS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $91.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$80.74worst · -12.0%$104.82best · +14.3%
  • now $91.72 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $92.11 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $87.01–$97.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $80.74–$104.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−30.0%−30.0%+0.0%
2020-02-13−27.4%−27.4%+0.0%
2024-11-27−26.7%−27.0%+0.0%
3 best
2024-12-24+31.2%−0.7%+31.2%
2026-04-15+30.7%+0.0%+32.0%
2025-01-14+30.4%+0.0%+30.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$137.5B
market cap
$2.27
EPS (TTM)
47.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$402.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$7.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr0.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr2.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.24
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $91.72$39.49$370.13
  • DCF (intrinsic)$347.32
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$62.29
  • Analyst target · range $90.00–$123.00$110.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$91.72

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Apr
53%
+2.4%
n=19
May
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.3%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.6%
n=19
Oct
39%
−0.7%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.6%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$110$642026-05-21: 2 insider sales, $69.9M — ROBBINS LARRY …2026-05-20: 4 insider sales, $95.5M — ROBBINS LARRY …2026-05-19: 2 insider sales, $187.3M — ROBBINS LARRY …2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $6.2M — Mandadi Tilak2025-08-20: 1 insider sale, $533K — Finucane Anne A.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $533K2026-05: 9 open-market sales, $359.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector ROBBINS LARRY — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same daydirector ROBBINS LARRY — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same daydirector ROBBINS LARRY — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROBBINS LARRY — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROBBINS LARRY — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROBBINS LARRY — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ROBBINS LARRY — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ROBBINS LARRY — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Mandadi Tilak — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Finucane Anne A. — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 9 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-21ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale378,000 @ $93.31$35.3M−100.0% of holding+9.8%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale370,462 @ $93.45$34.6M−7.1% of holding+9.8%not yet — horizon still open4,824,799Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-20ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale797,628 @ $93.48$74.6M−12.8% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open5,415,633Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale152,691 @ $94.81$14.5M−2.8% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open5,262,942Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale66,881 @ $95.67$6.4M−1.3% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open5,196,061Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-20ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale800 @ $96.28$77K−0.0% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open5,195,261Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale1,983,387 @ $94.45$187.3M−24.2% of holding+2.4%not yet — horizon still open6,213,412Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale151 @ $95.18$14K−0.0% of holding+2.4%not yet — horizon still open6,213,261Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08Mandadi TilakofficerSale69,551 @ $89.58$6.2M−87.3% of holding+7.3%not yet — horizon still open10,133Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-20Finucane Anne A.directorSale7,500 @ $71.02$533K−25.3% of holding+1.5%+1.4%22,156Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2025-06-05SANSONE GUY PdirectorPurchase1,570 @ $63.70$100K+15.0% of holding+1.2%+7.9%12,007Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-06ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale150,000 @ $66.67$10.0M−1.8% of holding−10.9%−1.4%8,196,799Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-05ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale1,226,933 @ $67.37$82.7M−12.7% of holding−11.0%−2.8%8,443,798Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale96,999 @ $67.99$6.6M−1.1% of holding−11.0%−2.8%8,346,799Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale1,679,736 @ $67.39$113.2M−14.1% of holding−10.9%−3.0%10,267,063Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-02ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale373,776 @ $69.66$26.0M−3.7% of holding−10.9%−3.0%9,670,731Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-02ROBBINS LARRYdirectorSale222,556 @ $68.38$15.2M−2.2% of holding−10.9%−3.0%10,044,507Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05Clark James DavidofficerSale7,513 @ $66.35$498K−47.2% of holding+10.0%+2.1%8,394Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Mahoney Michael FdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $66.70$2.0M+320.6% of holding+10.8%+5.3%39,356Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-23Nelson Steven HdirectorPurchase24 @ $53.70$1Kownership Δ n/a+19.2%+10.1%24Form 4 · filed 369 days after the trade
2024-10-23CAPOZZI HEIDI BofficerPurchase35 @ $56.85$2K+70.0% of holding−2.1%+21.1%85Form 4 · filed 356 days after the trade
2024-10-02CAPOZZI HEIDI BofficerPurchase10 @ $62.24$622+25.0% of holding−8.2%+15.4%50Form 4 · filed 377 days after the trade
2024-09-09CAPOZZI HEIDI BofficerPurchase35 @ $56.47$2K+700.0% of holding+11.5%+14.7%40Form 4 · filed 400 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

110 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-26Clark James DavidofficerWithheld for tax45427,606Form 4
2026-05-31Compton-Phillips AmyofficerWithheld for tax7,6189,557Form 4
2026-05-31Newman BriandirectorWithheld for tax2,4783,008Form 4
2026-05-21AGUIRRE FERNANDOdirectorDisposition1,56310,513Form 4
2026-05-20AGUIRRE FERNANDOdirectorDisposition30,43712,076Form 4
2026-05-14Balser Jeffrey R.directorAward / grant2,05815,717Form 4
2026-05-14ROBBINS LARRYdirectorAward / grant1,93010,148Form 4
2026-05-14Mahoney Michael FdirectorAward / grant1,7376,429Form 4
2026-05-14AGUIRRE FERNANDOdirectorAward / grant1,56342,513Form 4
2026-05-14Finucane Anne A.directorAward / grant1,54418,355Form 4
2026-05-14BROWN C DAVID IIdirectorAward / grant1,544129,316Form 4
2026-05-14Shulman Douglas H.directorAward / grant1,4481,448Form 4
2026-05-14Gallina John EdirectorAward / grant1,4481,448Form 4
2026-05-14DECOUDREAUX ALECIA AdirectorAward / grant1,44842,182Form 4
2026-05-14KIRBY J SCOTTdirectorAward / grant1,44714,434Form 4
2026-05-14SANSONE GUY PdirectorAward / grant1,44715,106Form 4
2026-05-14Norwalk Leslie VdirectorAward / grant1,4477,376Form 4
2026-04-01Joyner J. DaviddirectorWithheld for tax8,02970,349Form 4
2026-04-01Mandadi TilakofficerWithheld for tax3,63479,684Form 4
2026-04-01Khichi Samrat S.officerWithheld for tax3,54133,421Form 4
2026-04-01Clark James DavidofficerWithheld for tax3,26215,457Form 4
2026-04-01Nelson Steven HdirectorWithheld for tax2,4322,900Form 4
2026-04-01Shah Prem SofficerWithheld for tax1,48464,356Form 4
2026-04-01CAPOZZI HEIDI BofficerWithheld for tax1,33413,023Form 4
2026-03-31Shah Prem SofficerAward / grant161,676161,676Form 4
2026-03-31Mandadi TilakofficerAward / grant143,712143,712Form 4
2026-03-31Nelson Steven HdirectorAward / grant143,712143,712Form 4
2026-03-31Newman BriandirectorAward / grant125,748125,748Form 4
2026-03-31Joyner J. DaviddirectorAward / grant86,326160,860Form 4
2026-03-31Khichi Samrat S.officerAward / grant80,83880,838Form 4
2026-03-31CAPOZZI HEIDI BofficerAward / grant64,67064,670Form 4
2026-03-31Compton-Phillips AmyofficerAward / grant35,92835,928Form 4
2026-03-31Shah Prem SofficerAward / grant25,06262,852Form 4
2026-03-31Mandadi TilakofficerAward / grant22,27788,543Form 4
2026-03-31Nelson Steven HdirectorAward / grant22,27743,606Form 4
2026-03-31Newman BriandirectorAward / grant19,49341,354Form 4
2026-03-31Khichi Samrat S.officerAward / grant12,53138,139Form 4
2026-03-31Clark James DavidofficerAward / grant11,97611,976Form 4
2026-03-31Clark James DavidofficerAward / grant11,13835,539Form 4
2026-03-31CAPOZZI HEIDI BofficerAward / grant10,02584,450Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2026-03-102026-02-20$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-02-152026-01-29$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-02-112026-01-13$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Dwight EvansHousesale2025-12-192025-11-21$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.