Issued 2026-09-16 at $65.40 · now $65.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CVNA has typically landed between $40.21 and $108.04 — a range of −38.5% to +65.2% from the issuance price $65.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,338 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($65.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CVNA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $65.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $65.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $65.98 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $53.83–$78.13
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $40.21–$108.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,338 windows spanning 2017-04-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −73.0% | −73.0% | +1.2% |
| 2020-02-19 | −71.9% | −72.0% | +3.1% |
| 2022-04-11 | −71.7% | −71.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-01-09 | +215.3% | −0.5% | +225.5% |
| 2023-01-03 | +207.8% | −4.8% | +207.8% |
| 2023-01-06 | +199.3% | +0.0% | +227.7% |
2,338 overlapping windows · 2017-04-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$66.3B
market cap
$1.99
EPS (TTM)
30.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$20.3B
'20'25
Net income$1.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$889M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr40.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.18
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-2.96
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$47.50
- Analyst target · range $85.00–$537.00$120.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$65.40
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
44%
+10.1%
n=9
Feb
56%
+8.7%
n=9
Mar
44%
−1.6%
n=9
Apr
67%
+5.3%
n=9
May
50%
+7.4%
n=10
Jun
80%
+29.8%
n=10
Jul
80%
+16.1%
n=10
Aug
70%
+15.5%
n=10
Sep
30%
−9.9%
n=10
Oct
33%
−8.6%
n=9
Nov
78%
+7.9%
n=9
Dec
33%
−1.1%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Taira Thomas | officer | Sale | 14,109 @ $70.68 | $997K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 366,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Taira Thomas | officer | Sale | 2,680 @ $70.05 | $188K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 381,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 37,406 @ $71.36 | $2.7M | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,175,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 29,474 @ $71.36 | $2.1M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 499,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 26,344 @ $71.83 | $1.9M | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,149,518 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 20,526 @ $71.83 | $1.5M | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 478,693 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 3,400 @ $71.40 | $243K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 130,486 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $71.88 | $115K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 128,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | PLATT IRA J. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $75.50 | $1.1M | −7.4% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,470 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | QUAYLE J DANFORTH | director | Sale | 14,525 @ $75.00 | $1.1M | −6.3% of holding | −9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 214,960 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | PLATT IRA J. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $73.00 | $1.1M | −7.4% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,470 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 24,287 @ $64.08 | $1.6M | −2.0% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,188,057 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 22,886 @ $64.93 | $1.5M | −1.9% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,165,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 22,144 @ $64.14 | $1.4M | −3.8% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 557,245 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 15,920 @ $65.06 | $1.0M | −2.9% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 541,325 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 8,637 @ $65.75 | $568K | −0.7% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,156,534 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 7,940 @ $63.17 | $502K | −0.7% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,212,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 6,320 @ $63.18 | $399K | −1.1% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 579,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 5,616 @ $65.81 | $370K | −1.0% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 535,709 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 2,280 @ $64.22 | $146K | −1.6% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 138,869 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 1,440 @ $65.14 | $94K | −1.0% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,429 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 760 @ $63.19 | $48K | −0.5% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,149 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 520 @ $65.82 | $34K | −0.4% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 136,909 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | MAROONE MICHAEL E | director | Purchase | 21,153 @ $61.69 | $1.3M | +14.7% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 164,726 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | MAROONE MICHAEL E | director | Purchase | 3,847 @ $62.40 | $240K | +2.3% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,573 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 21,130 @ $68.14 | $1.4M | −2.0% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,054,970 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 17,562 @ $68.14 | $1.2M | −3.5% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 479,915 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 15,550 @ $70.43 | $1.1M | −1.5% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,029,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 12,960 @ $70.44 | $913K | −2.7% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 458,755 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 9,840 @ $69.22 | $681K | −0.9% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,045,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 8,200 @ $69.22 | $568K | −1.7% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 471,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 6,710 @ $65.18 | $437K | −0.6% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,086,620 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 5,960 @ $67.49 | $402K | −0.6% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,076,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 5,038 @ $67.49 | $340K | −1.0% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 497,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 4,560 @ $66.07 | $301K | −0.4% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,082,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 3,680 @ $66.06 | $243K | −0.7% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 502,515 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 2,560 @ $65.23 | $167K | −0.5% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 506,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 1,360 @ $68.47 | $93K | −0.9% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,614 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 1,320 @ $67.81 | $90K | −0.9% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,974 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 1,080 @ $70.52 | $76K | −0.7% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 600 @ $69.69 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,014 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 360 @ $66.09 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,294 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 280 @ $65.13 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,654 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | PLATT IRA J. | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $68.00 | $510K | −3.9% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | PLATT IRA J. | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $67.65 | $507K | −3.7% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,970 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | QUAYLE J DANFORTH | director | Sale | 14,525 @ $70.00 | $1.0M | −6.3% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 214,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Taira Thomas | officer | Sale | 5,597 @ $67.15 | $376K | −1.7% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 315,075 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 36,986 @ $70.78 | $2.6M | −3.4% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,039,099 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 29,071 @ $70.78 | $2.1M | −5.3% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 517,593 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 24,259 @ $69.72 | $1.7M | −2.2% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,076,085 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 19,105 @ $69.72 | $1.3M | −3.4% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 546,664 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 2,853 @ $70.84 | $202K | −1.8% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 153,075 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 2,505 @ $71.28 | $179K | −0.2% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,036,594 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 2,027 @ $69.76 | $141K | −1.3% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 155,928 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Sale | 1,824 @ $71.25 | $130K | −0.4% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 515,769 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Sale | 120 @ $71.59 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 152,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Taira Thomas | officer | Sale | 4,447 @ $79.80 | $355K | −6.7% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,595 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Taira Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,143 @ $80.63 | $92K | −1.9% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,452 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | GARCIA ERNEST C. II | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $68.06 | $136.1M | −50.0% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Sale | 2,790 @ $395.33 | $1.1M | −1.3% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,327 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
138 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | GILL DANIEL J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,705 | 1,042,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | director | Withheld for tax | 7,070 | 4,716,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,016 | 528,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,016 | 1,149,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | BREAUX PAUL W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,457 | 426,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Taira Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,949 | 383,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,023 | 133,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | KEETON RYAN S. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,879 | 429,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,199,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 1,209,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 3,750 | 1,213,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 193,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 442,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 3,750 | 74,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | PLATT IRA J. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 201,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | QUAYLE J DANFORTH | director | Option exercise | 14,525 | 229,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | PLATT IRA J. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 59,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | QUAYLE J DANFORTH | director | Option exercise | 14,525 | 14,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | PLATT IRA J. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 201,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | PLATT IRA J. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 74,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,206,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 1,216,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 3,750 | 1,220,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Taira Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 80,547 | 387,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | GILL DANIEL J. | officer | Award / grant | 119,883 | 1,050,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | director | Award / grant | 134,707 | 4,723,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 0 | 213,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | KEETON RYAN S. | officer | Award / grant | 56,742 | 432,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 0 | 542,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Option exercise | 0 | 81,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Award / grant | 133,972 | 585,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Award / grant | 133,972 | 1,156,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | BREAUX PAUL W. | officer | Award / grant | 85,336 | 430,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | GILL DANIEL J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,707 | 930,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | director | Withheld for tax | 7,069 | 4,589,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | JENKINS MARK W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,018 | 1,022,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | HUSTON BENJAMIN E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,018 | 451,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | BREAUX PAUL W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,453 | 345,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Taira Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,948 | 307,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Palmer Stephen R | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,025 | 141,909 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2026-03-16 | 2026-02-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.