Issued 2026-09-16 at $145.21 · now $145.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CVLT has typically landed between $123.72 and $172.71 — a range of −14.8% to +18.9% from the issuance price $145.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($145.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CVLT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $145.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $145.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $147.56 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $137.56–$157.56
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $123.72–$172.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-10 | −48.7% | −48.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −45.7% | −45.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −44.4% | −48.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +60.5% | +0.0% | +61.2% |
| 2009-05-20 | +53.2% | +0.0% | +53.2% |
| 2008-11-21 | +52.4% | +0.0% | +59.6% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−1.3%
n=20
Feb
40%
−1.0%
n=20
Mar
45%
−0.0%
n=20
Apr
60%
+1.7%
n=20
May
60%
+4.7%
n=20
Jun
65%
+4.1%
n=20
Jul
40%
−0.0%
n=20
Aug
55%
+3.7%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.0%
n=20
Oct
45%
−1.6%
n=20
Nov
85%
+5.0%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.7%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Adamo Nicola | director | Sale | 1,530 @ $131.66 | $201K | −8.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,598 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 6,857 @ $142.80 | $979K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 257,676 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 1,293 @ $142.80 | $185K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,628 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 486 @ $142.80 | $69K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,160 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 4,840 @ $143.64 | $695K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 264,533 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 1,854 @ $143.64 | $266K | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 70,921 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 391 @ $143.64 | $56K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 12,437 @ $143.98 | $1.8M | −4.4% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,373 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 119 @ $143.98 | $17K | −0.9% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,037 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Lee Vivie | director | Sale | 595 @ $134.19 | $80K | −3.8% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,140 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Sanders A Shane | director | Sale | 476 @ $134.19 | $64K | −5.2% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,696 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Haydon William Geoffrey | director | Sale | 316 @ $134.78 | $43K | −0.5% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,254 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 254 @ $150.00 | $38K | −1.9% of holding | −18.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,156 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 4,554 @ $106.70 | $486K | −5.9% of holding | +25.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,775 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-26 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 277 @ $106.70 | $30K | −2.1% of holding | +25.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,166 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 9,701 @ $107.39 | $1.0M | −2.9% of holding | +23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 322,544 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 3,777 @ $107.39 | $406K | −4.7% of holding | +23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,329 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 101 @ $107.39 | $11K | −0.7% of holding | +23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,443 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 8,450 @ $99.13 | $838K | −2.7% of holding | +19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 306,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 365 @ $99.13 | $36K | −2.7% of holding | +19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 13,158 @ $106.19 | $1.4M | −3.9% of holding | +25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 321,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 6,238 @ $104.01 | $649K | −1.9% of holding | +25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 315,377 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 2,285 @ $106.19 | $243K | −3.0% of holding | +25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,782 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 2,275 @ $104.01 | $237K | −3.0% of holding | +25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 896 @ $106.19 | $95K | −6.1% of holding | +25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 169 @ $104.01 | $18K | −1.2% of holding | +25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,581 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 8,457 @ $104.54 | $884K | −2.5% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 334,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 3,098 @ $104.54 | $324K | −3.9% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 516 @ $104.50 | $54K | −3.4% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,646 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 409 @ $104.54 | $43K | −2.6% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 10,052 @ $80.09 | $805K | −2.9% of holding | +13.5% | +68.2% | 332,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 10,338 @ $78.96 | $816K | −2.9% of holding | +11.5% | +65.2% | 342,581 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 1,892 @ $91.28 | $173K | −2.9% of holding | −9.0% | +30.5% | 62,833 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 6,480 @ $90.28 | $585K | −1.8% of holding | −8.6% | +37.9% | 352,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 2,593 @ $90.28 | $234K | −3.9% of holding | −8.6% | +37.9% | 64,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Sale | 218 @ $90.28 | $20K | −2.1% of holding | −8.6% | +37.9% | 10,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 6,604 @ $121.81 | $804K | −1.8% of holding | +1.7% | −23.4% | 359,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 3,552 @ $120.99 | $430K | −1.0% of holding | +1.7% | −23.4% | 365,972 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 2,845 @ $119.75 | $341K | −0.8% of holding | +1.7% | −23.4% | 369,524 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 1,845 @ $122.40 | $226K | −2.7% of holding | +1.7% | −23.4% | 67,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 108 @ $122.59 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | +1.7% | −23.4% | 359,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 6,820 @ $123.58 | $843K | −1.8% of holding | −0.4% | −26.7% | 380,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 5,794 @ $123.37 | $715K | −1.5% of holding | −0.4% | −26.7% | 374,408 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 2,674 @ $123.58 | $330K | −3.7% of holding | −0.4% | −26.7% | 69,163 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 1,939 @ $124.64 | $242K | −0.5% of holding | −0.4% | −26.7% | 372,469 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | DiRico Jennifer Leigh | officer | Sale | 830 @ $123.58 | $103K | −1.8% of holding | −0.4% | −26.7% | 44,313 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 100 @ $125.81 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | −0.4% | −26.7% | 372,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 6,295 @ $177.62 | $1.1M | −7.5% of holding | −1.3% | −56.9% | 77,972 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 3,506 @ $179.43 | $629K | −4.6% of holding | −1.3% | −56.9% | 72,537 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 2,814 @ $176.16 | $496K | −3.2% of holding | −1.3% | −56.9% | 84,267 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 1,929 @ $178.65 | $345K | −2.5% of holding | −1.3% | −56.9% | 76,043 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Merrill Gary | officer | Sale | 700 @ $180.17 | $126K | −1.0% of holding | −1.3% | −56.9% | 71,837 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | DiRico Jennifer Leigh | officer | Sale | 7,606 @ $182.35 | $1.4M | −13.9% of holding | −7.9% | −60.9% | 46,944 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | DiRico Jennifer Leigh | officer | Sale | 5,502 @ $181.55 | $999K | −9.2% of holding | −7.9% | −60.9% | 54,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | DiRico Jennifer Leigh | officer | Sale | 1,351 @ $183.41 | $248K | −2.9% of holding | −7.9% | −60.9% | 45,593 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | DiRico Jennifer Leigh | officer | Sale | 450 @ $184.63 | $83K | −1.0% of holding | −7.9% | −60.9% | 45,143 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Pickens Allison | director | Sale | 690 @ $177.89 | $123K | −11.8% of holding | −1.6% | −57.3% | 5,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 6,558 @ $175.70 | $1.2M | −1.4% of holding | +7.5% | −55.2% | 451,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 5,622 @ $176.72 | $994K | −1.2% of holding | +7.5% | −55.2% | 446,181 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Sale | 2,759 @ $178.24 | $492K | −0.6% of holding | +7.5% | −55.2% | 443,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Gift | 37,372 | 37,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Gift | 37,372 | 18,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sanders A Shane | director | Award / grant | 1,761 | 9,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Bejar Martha Helena | director | Award / grant | 1,761 | 8,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Geeslin Keith | director | Award / grant | 1,761 | 35,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | MORAN CHARLES E | director | Award / grant | 1,761 | 15,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Lee Vivie | director | Award / grant | 1,761 | 15,735 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Adamo Nicola | director | Award / grant | 1,761 | 19,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Award / grant | 244 | 13,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Gift | 40,734 | 281,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Gift | 40,734 | 40,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Award / grant | 328 | 13,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Award / grant | 8,200 | 332,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Award / grant | 17,118 | 324,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Merrill Gary | officer | Award / grant | 5,647 | 78,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Merrill Gary | officer | Award / grant | 2,952 | 81,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Award / grant | 3,897 | 15,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Option exercise | 415 | 11,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Award / grant | 70,150 | 343,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Merrill Gary | officer | Option exercise | 278 | 55,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Merrill Gary | officer | Award / grant | 24,357 | 80,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Option exercise | 926 | 273,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Merrill Gary | officer | Option exercise | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Option exercise | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Option exercise | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Option exercise | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Option exercise | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Merrill Gary | officer | Option exercise | 0 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Merrill Gary | officer | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Award / grant | 1,258 | 1,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Award / grant | 1,258 | 1,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Award / grant | 2,805 | 2,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Merrill Gary | officer | Award / grant | 841 | 841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Award / grant | 2,805 | 2,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Merrill Gary | officer | Award / grant | 12,294 | 75,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-13 | Haydon William Geoffrey | director | Award / grant | 64,543 | 65,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Abrahamsen Danielle Nicole | officer | Award / grant | 4,564 | 10,634 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Haydon William Geoffrey | director | Award / grant | 1,027 | 1,027 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Gift | 56,000 | 56,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | Mirchandani Sanjay | director | Gift | 56,000 | 387,022 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.