CVLG · TickerCove

CVLGCovenant Logistics Group, Inc.Industrials · Truckingas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.39 · now $34.39 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CVLG has typically landed between $29.00 and $42.07 — a range of −15.7% to +22.3% from the issuance price $34.39.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$34.39 · 52% of range

$17.94 low$49.88 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.2%

typical move · IQR 16.1%

−15.7%worst (p90)+22.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CVLG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $34.39 (+0.0%)
typical $35.14 (+2.2%)
middle 50% $32.38–$37.91
90% range $29–$42.07

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-05	−54.8%	−54.8%	+0.0%
2008-09-19	−52.0%	−52.3%	+0.0%
2008-09-10	−51.5%	−53.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-05-14	+103.5%	+0.0%	+105.2%
2009-05-15	+92.7%	+0.0%	+92.7%
2009-05-28	+91.6%	+0.0%	+91.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

70%

+3.4%

n=20

Feb

50%

+3.5%

n=20

Mar

50%

−1.6%

n=20

Apr

55%

+1.7%

n=20

May

70%

+6.2%

n=20

Jun

55%

+4.2%

n=20

Jul

65%

+7.9%

n=20

Aug

30%

−4.3%

n=20

Sep

55%

+0.1%

n=20

Oct

50%

−2.2%

n=20

Nov

55%

+4.3%

n=20

Dec

35%

−0.5%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-01	Ballard Joey	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $40.15	$161K	−23.3% of holding	+10.7%	not yet — horizon still open	13,149	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-27	HOGAN JOEY B	director	Sale	12,800 @ $39.18	$502K	−12.3% of holding	+16.5%	not yet — horizon still open	91,294	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-26	Ballard Joey	officer	Sale	3,718 @ $38.00	$141K	−17.8% of holding	+14.9%	not yet — horizon still open	17,149	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-22	Ballard Joey	officer	Sale	4,282 @ $37.40	$160K	−17.0% of holding	+16.1%	not yet — horizon still open	20,867	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-04-29	KRAMER D MICHAEL	director	Sale	2,650 @ $34.72	$92K	−10.7% of holding	+7.7%	not yet — horizon still open	22,086	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28	HOGAN JOEY B	director	Sale	14,700 @ $34.76	$511K	−12.4% of holding	+7.0%	not yet — horizon still open	104,094	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-20	Grant James S III	officer	Sale	22,388 @ $30.75	$688K	−51.7% of holding	+11.2%	not yet — horizon still open	20,915	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	17,948 @ $28.98	$520K	−0.9% of holding	−6.1%	+8.1%	2,047,544	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-20	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	12,452 @ $29.47	$367K	−0.6% of holding	−6.1%	+8.1%	2,065,492	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-19	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	55,000 @ $29.38	$1.6M	−2.6% of holding	−8.7%	+6.6%	2,077,944	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	65,000 @ $29.34	$1.9M	−3.0% of holding	−10.8%	+3.4%	2,132,944	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	96,333 @ $29.70	$2.9M	−4.2% of holding	−11.1%	+2.8%	2,201,611	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	3,667 @ $28.85	$106K	−0.2% of holding	−11.1%	+2.8%	2,197,944	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	15,000 @ $28.46	$427K	−0.6% of holding	−10.1%	+10.6%	2,297,944	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-12	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	16,230 @ $29.36	$476K	−0.7% of holding	−9.0%	+10.3%	2,316,714	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-12	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	2,770 @ $27.76	$77K	−0.1% of holding	−9.0%	+10.3%	2,313,944	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-12	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	1,000 @ $27.02	$27K	−0.0% of holding	−9.0%	+10.3%	2,312,944	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-11	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	16,693 @ $29.42	$491K	−0.7% of holding	−11.1%	+6.0%	2,343,651	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-11	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	10,707 @ $29.23	$313K	−0.5% of holding	−11.1%	+6.0%	2,332,944	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-10	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	50,000 @ $29.23	$1.5M	−17.1% of holding	−11.8%	+4.9%	243,074	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	15,202 @ $28.61	$435K	−6.3% of holding	−11.8%	+4.9%	227,872	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-10	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	4,798 @ $28.57	$137K	−0.2% of holding	−11.8%	+4.9%	2,360,344	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09	PARKER DAVID RAY	director	Sale	56,000 @ $28.66	$1.6M	−16.0% of holding	−7.0%	+5.5%	293,074	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-21	KRAMER D MICHAEL	director	Sale	2,200 @ $22.80	$50K	−8.2% of holding	+1.0%	−32.7%	24,736	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28	Long Matisse	officer	Sale	2,114 @ $28.95	$61K	−12.0% of holding	−11.2%	−20.0%	15,434	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	BUNN PAUL	officer	Withheld for tax	3,206	206,841	Form 4
2026-07-01	BUNN PAUL	officer	Withheld for tax	3,126	202,817	Form 4
2026-07-01	Grant James S III	officer	Withheld for tax	1,423	50,608	Form 4
2026-07-01	Grant James S III	officer	Withheld for tax	1,387	48,416	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ballard Joey	officer	Withheld for tax	1,138	16,185	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ballard Joey	officer	Withheld for tax	832	14,431	Form 4
2026-07-01	Koehl Dustin	officer	Withheld for tax	793	6,726	Form 4
2026-07-01	Koehl Dustin	officer	Withheld for tax	687	4,266	Form 4
2026-07-01	Koehl Dustin	officer	Option exercise	2,820	2,820	Form 4
2026-07-01	Grant James S III	officer	Option exercise	3,615	7,230	Form 4
2026-07-01	BUNN PAUL	officer	Option exercise	7,050	7,050	Form 4
2026-07-01	Grant James S III	officer	Option exercise	3,524	3,526	Form 4
2026-07-01	Koehl Dustin	officer	Option exercise	3,253	6,508	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ballard Joey	officer	Option exercise	2,114	2,114	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ballard Joey	officer	Option exercise	2,892	5,784	Form 4
2026-07-01	BUNN PAUL	officer	Option exercise	7,230	14,460	Form 4
2026-07-01	BUNN PAUL	officer	Option exercise	7,050	205,943	Form 4
2026-07-01	BUNN PAUL	officer	Option exercise	7,050	205,943	Form 4
2026-07-01	BUNN PAUL	officer	Option exercise	7,230	210,047	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ballard Joey	officer	Option exercise	2,114	15,263	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ballard Joey	officer	Option exercise	2,892	17,323	Form 4
2026-07-01	Grant James S III	officer	Option exercise	3,524	49,803	Form 4
2026-07-01	Grant James S III	officer	Option exercise	3,615	52,031	Form 4
2026-07-01	BUNN PAUL	officer	Option exercise	7,230	210,047	Form 4
2026-07-01	Koehl Dustin	officer	Option exercise	2,820	4,953	Form 4
2026-07-01	Koehl Dustin	officer	Option exercise	3,253	7,519	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ballard Joey	officer	Option exercise	2,114	15,263	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ballard Joey	officer	Option exercise	2,892	17,323	Form 4
2026-07-01	Grant James S III	officer	Option exercise	3,524	49,803	Form 4
2026-07-01	Grant James S III	officer	Option exercise	3,615	52,031	Form 4
2026-07-01	Koehl Dustin	officer	Option exercise	2,820	4,953	Form 4
2026-07-01	Koehl Dustin	officer	Option exercise	3,253	7,519	Form 4
2026-05-28	Grant James S III	officer	Withheld for tax	10,430	46,279	Form 4
2026-05-28	Grant James S III	officer	Option exercise	18,030	38,945	Form 4
2026-05-28	Grant James S III	officer	Option exercise	17,764	56,709	Form 4
2026-05-28	Grant James S III	officer	Option exercise	17,764	36,322	Form 4
2026-05-28	Grant James S III	officer	Option exercise	18,030	0	Form 4
2026-05-22	BUNN PAUL	officer	Withheld for tax	20,000	198,893	Form 4
2026-05-22	BUNN PAUL	officer	Option exercise	64,196	218,893	Form 4
2026-05-22	BUNN PAUL	officer	Option exercise	64,196	296,380	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i