CVICVR Energy, Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketingas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $53.05 · now $53.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CVI has typically landed between $42.34 and $68.78 — a range of −20.2% to +29.7% from the issuance price $53.05.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,732 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-10-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($53.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CVI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $53.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$42.34worst · -20.2%$68.78best · +29.7%
  • now $53.05 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $54.15 (+2.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $48.72–$59.58
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $42.34–$68.78
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,732 windows spanning 2007-10-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−76.0%−76.0%+0.0%
2008-09-30−73.6%−73.6%+0.0%
2008-09-25−73.6%−73.6%+0.0%
3 best
2016-11-08+93.9%+0.0%+93.9%
2009-03-11+81.2%+0.0%+81.2%
2009-03-05+67.5%−4.2%+67.5%

4,732 overlapping windows · 2007-10-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
63%
+6.1%
n=19
Feb
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
68%
+4.4%
n=19
Apr
42%
+4.2%
n=19
May
37%
+4.3%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Sep
58%
+2.0%
n=19
Oct
56%
−0.9%
n=18
Nov
53%
+6.1%
n=19
Dec
53%
+2.4%
n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$53$212026-02-24: 1 insider purchase, $5.9M — ICAHN CARL C2026-02-23: 1 insider purchase, $5.1M — ICAHN CARL C2026-02-20: 1 insider purchase, $5.5M — ICAHN CARL C2026-02: 3 open-market purchases, $16.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector ICAHN CARL C — Purchase on 2026-02-24, filed same daydirector ICAHN CARL C — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ICAHN CARL C — Purchase on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-24ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase275,012 @ $21.41$5.9M+0.4% of holding+54.8%+63.6%71,201,875Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-23ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase244,940 @ $20.75$5.1M+0.3% of holding+60.9%+69.1%70,926,863Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase263,452 @ $20.78$5.5M+0.4% of holding+61.3%+80.2%70,681,923Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-29ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase7,907 @ $18.21$144K+0.0% of holding+14.2%+72.4%70,418,471Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-25ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase41,130 @ $18.16$747K+0.1% of holding+22.3%+91.3%70,410,564Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-24ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase30,183 @ $18.20$549K+0.0% of holding+22.4%+90.3%70,369,434Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-23ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase98,875 @ $17.84$1.8M+0.1% of holding+24.7%+77.4%70,339,251Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-21ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase29,972 @ $18.21$546K+0.0% of holding+11.9%+59.7%70,240,376Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-17ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase14,591 @ $18.18$265K+0.0% of holding+17.4%+59.7%70,210,404Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-16ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase70,331 @ $18.03$1.3M+0.1% of holding+20.4%+58.9%70,195,813Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-15ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase82,328 @ $17.85$1.5M+0.1% of holding+27.6%+69.0%70,125,482Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-14ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase77,851 @ $17.90$1.4M+0.1% of holding+21.7%+73.3%70,043,154Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-11ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase192,676 @ $17.31$3.3M+0.3% of holding+20.3%+75.1%69,965,303Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-10ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase217,867 @ $16.78$3.7M+0.3% of holding+20.2%+77.0%69,772,627Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-09ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase203,382 @ $16.62$3.4M+0.3% of holding+18.5%+81.3%69,554,760Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-08ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase244,200 @ $16.76$4.1M+0.4% of holding+16.6%+91.4%69,351,378Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase244,200 @ $16.11$3.9M+0.4% of holding+14.9%+89.4%69,107,178Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-04ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase267,600 @ $16.55$4.4M+0.4% of holding+19.0%+95.1%68,862,978Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-03ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase61,108 @ $18.12$1.1M+0.1% of holding+8.1%+81.3%68,595,378Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase77 @ $18.25$1K+0.0% of holding−2.8%+40.3%68,534,270Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-13ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase87,900 @ $18.14$1.6M+0.1% of holding−0.7%+50.2%68,534,193Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-12ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase138,853 @ $18.01$2.5M+0.2% of holding−0.8%+58.7%68,446,293Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-11ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase89,468 @ $18.11$1.6M+0.1% of holding−1.1%+59.7%68,307,440Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase66,900 @ $18.15$1.2M+0.1% of holding−0.1%+65.5%68,217,972Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-07ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase76,268 @ $18.20$1.4M+0.1% of holding+2.7%+57.4%68,151,072Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-06ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase4,902 @ $18.21$89K+0.0% of holding−1.0%+57.5%68,074,804Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase122,049 @ $17.84$2.2M+0.2% of holding+6.3%+58.9%68,069,902Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase167,079 @ $18.01$3.0M+0.2% of holding+10.5%+59.5%67,947,853Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase206,571 @ $17.79$3.7M+0.3% of holding+12.1%+69.2%67,780,774Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase3,610 @ $18.24$66K+0.0% of holding+10.9%+56.4%67,574,203Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-08ICAHN CARL CdirectorPurchase878,212 @ $18.25$16.0M+1.3% of holding+1.1%+60.1%67,570,593Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

132 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-02-18Capps J. Travis Jr.officerAward / grant27,82427,824Form 4
2025-12-10LAMP DAVID LdirectorDisposition28,9480Form 4
2025-12-10LAMP DAVID LdirectorDisposition17,3880Form 4
2025-12-10LAMP DAVID LdirectorDisposition13,9620Form 4
2025-12-10Buhrig Melissa MofficerDisposition13,8950Form 4
2025-12-10Neumann Dane J.officerDisposition11,4910Form 4
2025-12-10Wright Michael H. Jr.officerDisposition11,2810Form 4
2025-12-10Johnson Charles DouglasofficerDisposition9,8250Form 4
2025-12-10PYTOSH MARK AdirectorDisposition9,1440Form 4
2025-12-10Buhrig Melissa MofficerDisposition7,9880Form 4
2025-12-10Neumann Dane J.officerDisposition6,6070Form 4
2025-12-10Wright Michael H. Jr.officerDisposition6,5440Form 4
2025-12-10Buhrig Melissa MofficerDisposition6,0840Form 4
2025-12-10Johnson Charles DouglasofficerDisposition5,7010Form 4
2025-12-10PYTOSH MARK AdirectorDisposition5,3070Form 4
2025-12-10Neumann Dane J.officerDisposition5,0770Form 4
2025-12-10Wright Michael H. Jr.officerDisposition5,0770Form 4
2025-12-10Johnson Charles DouglasofficerDisposition4,4250Form 4
2025-12-10PYTOSH MARK AdirectorDisposition4,1160Form 4
2025-12-10Conaway Jeffrey D.officerDisposition3,5260Form 4
2025-12-10Conaway Jeffrey D.officerDisposition2,0440Form 4
2025-12-10Conaway Jeffrey D.officerDisposition1,4890Form 4
2025-12-10Conaway Jeffrey D.officerOption exercise1,4891,489Form 4
2025-12-10Conaway Jeffrey D.officerOption exercise2,0442,044Form 4
2025-12-10Conaway Jeffrey D.officerOption exercise3,5263,526Form 4
2025-12-10Conaway Jeffrey D.officerOption exercise1,4890Form 4
2025-12-10Conaway Jeffrey D.officerOption exercise3,5267,052Form 4
2025-12-10Conaway Jeffrey D.officerAward / grant8,0928,092Form 4
2025-12-10Wright Michael H. Jr.officerOption exercise5,0775,077Form 4
2025-12-10Wright Michael H. Jr.officerOption exercise6,5446,544Form 4
2025-12-10Wright Michael H. Jr.officerOption exercise11,28111,281Form 4
2025-12-10Wright Michael H. Jr.officerOption exercise5,0770Form 4
2025-12-10Wright Michael H. Jr.officerAward / grant19,48219,482Form 4
2025-12-10Neumann Dane J.officerOption exercise5,0775,077Form 4
2025-12-10Neumann Dane J.officerOption exercise6,6076,607Form 4
2025-12-10Neumann Dane J.officerOption exercise11,49111,491Form 4
2025-12-10Neumann Dane J.officerOption exercise5,0770Form 4
2025-12-10Neumann Dane J.officerOption exercise11,49122,982Form 4
2025-12-10Neumann Dane J.officerAward / grant20,04120,041Form 4
2025-12-10Wright Michael H. Jr.officerOption exercise11,28122,561Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.