Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.06 · now $3.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CVGI has typically landed between $2.37 and $3.93 — a range of −22.6% to +28.4% from the issuance price $3.06.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CVGI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.06 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.96 (-3.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.69–$3.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.37–$3.93
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-16 | −88.5% | −88.5% | +13.7% |
| 2008-09-26 | −87.7% | −87.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −86.6% | −88.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-13 | +275.0% | +0.0% | +275.0% |
| 2009-07-14 | +266.7% | +0.0% | +266.7% |
| 2009-07-21 | +248.3% | +0.0% | +253.8% |
5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Cook Melanie K. | director | Award / grant | 23,483 | 133,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Ray James R Jr | director | Award / grant | 85,031 | 958,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Ray James R Jr | director | Award / grant | 335,079 | 1,293,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Levy Ari B. | director | Award / grant | 23,483 | 23,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Award / grant | 23,483 | 148,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Nauman J Michael | director | Award / grant | 23,483 | 184,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Johnson William | director | Award / grant | 23,483 | 136,216 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | RANCOURT WAYNE M | director | Award / grant | 23,483 | 256,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Ray James R Jr | director | Disposition | 85,031 | 873,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | O'Leary Angela M | other | Award / grant | 41,885 | 119,947 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Mohamed Aneezal H | officer | Award / grant | 40,314 | 268,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Mathers Kristin S | officer | Award / grant | 35,812 | 179,705 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Ray James R Jr | director | Withheld for tax | 80,100 | 958,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mathers Kristin S | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,801 | 143,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | O'Leary Angela M | other | Withheld for tax | 3,978 | 78,062 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Ray James R Jr | director | Withheld for tax | 32,455 | 1,038,515 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Cheung Chung Kin | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,917 | 302,435 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Mathers Kristin S | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,575 | 155,694 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | O'Leary Angela M | other | Withheld for tax | 1,887 | 82,040 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-29 | Mohamed Aneezal H | officer | Withheld for tax | 43,439 | 228,036 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Nauman J Michael | director | Award / grant | 75,472 | 161,307 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Award / grant | 75,472 | 125,285 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Ray James R Jr | director | Award / grant | 805,031 | 1,070,970 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Gratzke Ruth | director | Award / grant | 75,472 | 136,207 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Johnson William | director | Award / grant | 75,472 | 112,733 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | RANCOURT WAYNE M | director | Award / grant | 75,472 | 233,255 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Cook Melanie K. | director | Award / grant | 75,472 | 109,557 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Mathers Kristin S | officer | Award / grant | 86,038 | 161,269 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Cheung Chung Kin | officer | Award / grant | 181,132 | 316,352 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | O'Leary Angela M | other | Award / grant | 33,955 | 83,927 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Mohamed Aneezal H | officer | Award / grant | 96,855 | 271,475 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-31 | Ray James R Jr | director | Withheld for tax | 33,179 | 265,215 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-31 | Mathers Kristin S | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,694 | 75,231 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-31 | O'Leary Angela M | other | Withheld for tax | 2,602 | 49,972 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-16 | Niew Jeffrey | director | Award / grant | 49,813 | 49,813 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.