CVCO · TickerCove

CVCOCavco Industries, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Residential Constructionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $537.15 · now $537.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CVCO has typically landed between $453.39 and $642.27 — a range of −15.6% to +19.6% from the issuance price $537.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($537.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$537.15 · 34% of range

$455.76 low$697.76 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.2%

typical move · IQR 14.8%

−15.6%worst (p90)+19.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CVCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $537.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $537.15 (+0.0%)
typical $543.84 (+1.2%)
middle 50% $504–$583.68
90% range $453.39–$642.27

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−51.5%	−51.5%	+0.0%
2020-03-05	−49.2%	−49.2%	+0.3%
2020-02-20	−48.4%	−51.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-06-25	+53.6%	+0.0%	+53.6%
2009-06-23	+52.8%	−0.2%	+52.8%
2009-06-24	+52.4%	+0.0%	+53.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+1.9%

n=20

Feb

55%

+1.1%

n=20

Mar

60%

+0.8%

n=20

Apr

45%

+0.7%

n=20

May

45%

+1.0%

n=20

Jun

70%

+3.9%

n=20

Jul

60%

+3.6%

n=20

Aug

50%

+1.0%

n=20

Sep

50%

+0.0%

n=20

Oct

50%

+2.5%

n=20

Nov

70%

+4.9%

n=20

Dec

35%

−0.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-18	BIGBEE PAUL	officer	Sale	342 @ $592.00	$202K	−31.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	736	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-30	Daniels Lisa Lynn	director	Sale	30 @ $569.96	$17K	−9.2% of holding	−2.7%	not yet — horizon still open	297	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-25	ADEN ALLISON	director	Sale	1,473 @ $625.00	$921K	−13.9% of holding	−5.5%	not yet — horizon still open	9,147	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12	ADEN ALLISON	director	Sale	1,208 @ $600.00	$725K	−10.2% of holding	−6.0%	not yet — horizon still open	10,647	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-09	KERLEY RICHARD A	director	Sale	500 @ $588.76	$294K	−7.5% of holding	−4.6%	not yet — horizon still open	6,169	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-28	BIGBEE PAUL	officer	Sale	200 @ $537.75	$108K	−15.3% of holding	+15.6%	not yet — horizon still open	1,105	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-22	CIRA BRIAN R	officer	Sale	31 @ $509.17	$16K	−0.7% of holding	+21.5%	not yet — horizon still open	4,290	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-15	ADEN ALLISON	director	Sale	129 @ $455.76	$59K	−1.4% of holding	+31.1%	not yet — horizon still open	8,806	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-04	Boor William C	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $495.00	$495K	+2.1% of holding	+8.2%	+1.8%	48,022	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04	Greenblatt David A.	director	Purchase	87 @ $500.00	$44K	+0.5% of holding	+8.2%	+1.8%	16,076	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	Greenblatt David A.	director	Purchase	400 @ $462.43	$185K	+2.6% of holding	+17.8%	+9.5%	15,976	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03	Greenblatt David A.	director	Purchase	13 @ $481.00	$6K	+0.1% of holding	+17.8%	+9.5%	15,989	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02	MOSTER STEVEN W	director	Purchase	300 @ $456.23	$137K	+11.2% of holding	+25.9%	+10.1%	2,976	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07	KERLEY RICHARD A	director	Sale	500 @ $568.99	$284K	−7.0% of holding	−2.9%	−28.1%	6,669	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-09-04	SCHUKNECHT SETH G	officer	Sale	145 @ $550.00	$80K	−11.3% of holding	−0.6%	−7.6%	1,133	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-29	BIGBEE PAUL	officer	Sale	300 @ $530.45	$159K	−27.9% of holding	+5.9%	+0.1%	774	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-25	CIRA BRIAN R	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $522.00	$522K	−24.5% of holding	+5.2%	+3.3%	3,081	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-22	Blount Susan L	director	Sale	2,089 @ $519.51	$1.1M	−40.1% of holding	+7.1%	+6.4%	3,126	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-22	Blount Susan L	director	Sale	411 @ $518.24	$213K	−7.3% of holding	+7.1%	+6.4%	5,215	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-22	BIGBEE PAUL	officer	Sale	300 @ $522.68	$157K	−21.8% of holding	+7.1%	+6.4%	1,074	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-20	KERLEY RICHARD A	director	Sale	500 @ $480.55	$240K	−6.5% of holding	+10.4%	+14.2%	7,169	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-14	Blount Susan L	director	Sale	1,000 @ $485.00	$485K	−19.5% of holding	+10.4%	+15.8%	4,126	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-14	Blount Susan L	director	Sale	1,000 @ $481.42	$481K	−24.2% of holding	+10.4%	+15.8%	3,126	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05	Greenblatt David A.	director	Sale	4,000 @ $528.88	$2.1M	−20.7% of holding	−1.2%	−7.9%	15,286	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-07	BRANDOM JACK S	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $538.00	$538K	−46.0% of holding	+2.6%	−21.3%	1,176	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-05	Nino Matthew A	officer	Sale	894 @ $529.03	$473K	−53.7% of holding	+2.2%	−20.7%	771	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04	Blount Susan L	director	Sale	1,000 @ $507.85	$508K	−20.7% of holding	+7.4%	−18.4%	3,836	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04	Blount Susan L	director	Sale	1,000 @ $506.50	$507K	−26.1% of holding	+7.4%	−18.4%	2,836	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-15	Blount Susan L	director	Sale	750 @ $471.70	$354K	−20.9% of holding	+12.0%	−16.7%	2,836	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-13	Blount Susan L	director	Sale	750 @ $485.56	$364K	−26.4% of holding	−1.0%	−16.9%	2,086	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-09	SZE JULIA	director	Sale	125 @ $503.31	$63K	−4.4% of holding	−10.7%	−17.9%	2,736	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

123 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-11	KERLEY RICHARD A	director	Gift	290	6,459	Form 4
2026-08-11	KERLEY RICHARD A	director	Gift	290	225	Form 4
2026-07-30	Boor William C	director	Withheld for tax	128	68,363	Form 4
2026-07-27	Daniels Lisa Lynn	director	Award / grant	225	327	Form 4
2026-07-27	MOSTER STEVEN W	director	Award / grant	225	3,201	Form 4
2026-07-27	KERLEY RICHARD A	director	Award / grant	225	515	Form 4
2026-07-27	SZE JULIA	director	Award / grant	225	3,251	Form 4
2026-07-27	Greenblatt David A.	director	Award / grant	225	15,801	Form 4
2026-07-27	BUNGER STEVEN G	director	Award / grant	311	7,269	Form 4
2026-07-27	Blount Susan L	director	Award / grant	225	3,351	Form 4
2026-06-12	ADEN ALLISON	director	Withheld for tax	27	10,620	Form 4
2026-06-12	BIGBEE PAUL	officer	Withheld for tax	27	1,078	Form 4
2026-05-28	Boor William C	director	Withheld for tax	6,809	68,491	Form 4
2026-05-28	Boor William C	director	Option exercise	13,100	75,300	Form 4
2026-05-28	Boor William C	director	Option exercise	13,100	0	Form 4
2026-05-22	Boor William C	director	Withheld for tax	577	62,200	Form 4
2026-05-22	SCHUKNECHT SETH G	officer	Withheld for tax	63	1,865	Form 4
2026-05-22	BIGBEE PAUL	officer	Withheld for tax	31	1,305	Form 4
2026-05-22	Nino Matthew A	officer	Withheld for tax	29	2,560	Form 4
2026-05-22	ADEN ALLISON	director	Withheld for tax	22	11,855	Form 4
2026-05-22	BRANDOM JACK S	officer	Withheld for tax	11	1,354	Form 4
2026-05-20	Boor William C	director	Withheld for tax	516	62,777	Form 4
2026-05-20	ADEN ALLISON	director	Withheld for tax	89	11,877	Form 4
2026-05-20	SCHUKNECHT SETH G	officer	Withheld for tax	54	1,928	Form 4
2026-05-20	CIRA BRIAN R	officer	Withheld for tax	26	4,321	Form 4
2026-05-20	BIGBEE PAUL	officer	Withheld for tax	25	1,336	Form 4
2026-05-20	Nino Matthew A	officer	Withheld for tax	19	2,589	Form 4
2026-05-20	BRANDOM JACK S	officer	Withheld for tax	12	1,365	Form 4
2026-05-20	Fackrell Regan	officer	Withheld for tax	10	238	Form 4
2026-05-18	Boor William C	director	Award / grant	10,963	67,994	Form 4
2026-05-18	Boor William C	director	Withheld for tax	4,701	63,293	Form 4
2026-05-18	ADEN ALLISON	director	Award / grant	3,913	13,860	Form 4
2026-05-18	ADEN ALLISON	director	Withheld for tax	1,894	11,966	Form 4
2026-05-18	CIRA BRIAN R	officer	Award / grant	1,370	4,715	Form 4
2026-05-18	Nino Matthew A	officer	Award / grant	979	2,850	Form 4
2026-05-18	SCHUKNECHT SETH G	officer	Award / grant	814	2,323	Form 4
2026-05-18	BIGBEE PAUL	officer	Award / grant	783	1,697	Form 4
2026-05-18	CIRA BRIAN R	officer	Withheld for tax	368	4,347	Form 4
2026-05-18	SCHUKNECHT SETH G	officer	Withheld for tax	341	1,982	Form 4
2026-05-18	BIGBEE PAUL	officer	Withheld for tax	336	1,361	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i