CURVTorrid Holdings Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.15 · now $2.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CURV has typically landed between $1.46 and $3.15 — a range of −32.0% to +46.4% from the issuance price $2.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,287 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CURV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.46worst · -32.0%$3.15best · +46.4%
  • now $2.15 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.02 (-6.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.68–$2.37
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.46–$3.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,287 windows spanning 2021-07-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-08-14−57.7%−57.7%+8.6%
2023-08-16−55.1%−61.1%+0.0%
2023-08-17−54.8%−57.6%+0.0%
3 best
2023-09-21+86.9%−2.3%+86.9%
2023-10-25+80.7%−0.9%+80.7%
2023-09-25+79.5%+0.0%+91.3%

1,287 overlapping windows · 2021-07-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+12.2%
n=5
Feb
0%
−12.1%
n=5
Mar
40%
+18.4%
n=5
Apr
40%
−1.7%
n=5
May
20%
−5.4%
n=5
Jun
60%
−3.4%
n=5
Jul
40%
+4.5%
n=5
Aug
17%
−4.4%
n=6
Sep
0%
−20.6%
n=6
Oct
40%
−3.0%
n=5
Nov
80%
+15.5%
n=5
Dec
40%
−3.8%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$12026-09-02: 1 insider sale, $4K — Wheeler Ashlee2026-07-16: 2 insider sales, $55K — Abaelu Chinwe …2026-04-14: 1 insider sale, $88K — Dempsey Paula2026-04-13: 1 insider sale, $59K — Wheeler Ashlee2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $33K — Fund 1 Investments, LLC2025-09-23: 2 insider sales, $76K — Dempsey Paula, Wheeler Ashlee2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $76K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $33K2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $148K2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $55K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $4K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Wheeler Ashlee — Sale on 2026-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Abaelu Chinwe — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Abaelu Chinwe — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Dempsey Paula — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Wheeler Ashlee — Sale on 2026-04-13, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Fund 1 Investments, LLC — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dempsey Paula — Sale on 2025-09-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Wheeler Ashlee — Sale on 2025-09-23, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Wheeler AshleeofficerSale1,951 @ $2.27$4K−0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open204,300Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-16Abaelu ChinweofficerSale24,401 @ $2.16$53K−10.8% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open202,461Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16Abaelu ChinweofficerSale1,000 @ $2.29$2K−0.5% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open201,461Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14Dempsey PaulaofficerSale42,785 @ $2.06$88K−15.8% of holding−38.1%not yet — horizon still open227,923Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-13Wheeler AshleeofficerSale30,013 @ $1.98$59K−12.7% of holding−35.5%not yet — horizon still open205,856Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-03Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale25,000 @ $1.31$33K−0.3% of holding−16.1%+16.7%9,904,856Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-23Dempsey PaulaofficerSale26,000 @ $1.76$46K−15.2% of holding−23.3%−9.6%145,361Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-23Wheeler AshleeofficerSale16,959 @ $1.78$30K−13.6% of holding−23.3%−9.6%107,443Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-03Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale250,000 @ $2.74$684K−2.5% of holding−12.7%−73.3%9,814,856Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-02Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale257,833 @ $2.73$705K−2.5% of holding−9.6%−75.1%10,064,856Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-01Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale95,423 @ $2.82$270K−0.9% of holding−12.8%−76.8%10,322,689Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-01Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale15,000 @ $2.83$42K−0.1% of holding−12.8%−76.8%10,418,112Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-27Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase25,000 @ $3.28$82K+0.7% of holding−18.8%−79.4%3,805,255Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-27Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase5,000 @ $3.19$16K+0.0% of holding−18.8%−79.4%10,429,612Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-27Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase3,500 @ $3.22$11K+0.0% of holding−18.8%−79.4%10,433,112Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-26Sycamore Partners Torrid, L.L.C.tenPercentOwnerSale15,680,908 @ $3.32$52.0M−21.2% of holding−23.4%−81.7%58,295,694Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-26HARPER LISA MdirectorSale350,000 @ $3.32$1.2M−6.2% of holding−23.4%−81.7%5,266,453Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-08Killion TheodirectorSale26,483 @ $4.76$126K−25.1% of holding+5.1%−101.9%79,122Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

88 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-22Park Hyon C.officerWithheld for tax8,903338,676Form 4
2026-07-05Zeterberg Bridgett C.officerWithheld for tax2,395310,043Form 4
2026-07-01Wheeler AshleeofficerWithheld for tax605206,251Form 4
2026-07-01Park Hyon C.officerWithheld for tax576347,579Form 4
2026-06-02Shaffer Michael AdirectorAward / grant81,169192,785Form 4
2026-06-02Nikolov Valeria RicodirectorAward / grant81,169175,952Form 4
2026-06-02Killion TheodirectorAward / grant81,169184,849Form 4
2026-05-06HARPER LISA MdirectorWithheld for tax7,0525,421,549Form 4
2026-04-02Park Hyon C.officerWithheld for tax2,759348,155Form 4
2026-04-02Abaelu ChinweofficerWithheld for tax2,487225,862Form 4
2026-04-02Wheeler AshleeofficerWithheld for tax2,425235,869Form 4
2026-04-02Zeterberg Bridgett C.officerWithheld for tax2,406312,438Form 4
2026-04-02Dempsey PaulaofficerWithheld for tax2,363270,708Form 4
2026-03-31Abaelu ChinweofficerWithheld for tax1,481228,349Form 4
2026-03-31Wheeler AshleeofficerWithheld for tax743238,294Form 4
2026-03-27Zeterberg Bridgett C.officerWithheld for tax4,017314,844Form 4
2026-03-27Wheeler AshleeofficerWithheld for tax3,985239,037Form 4
2026-03-27Abaelu ChinweofficerWithheld for tax3,985229,830Form 4
2026-03-27Park Hyon C.officerWithheld for tax3,848350,914Form 4
2026-03-27HARPER LISA MdirectorWithheld for tax3,7705,428,601Form 4
2026-03-27Dempsey PaulaofficerWithheld for tax2,289273,071Form 4
2026-03-25HARPER LISA MdirectorWithheld for tax6,5235,432,371Form 4
2026-03-25Wheeler AshleeofficerWithheld for tax3,217243,022Form 4
2026-03-25Zeterberg Bridgett C.officerWithheld for tax2,317318,861Form 4
2026-03-25Abaelu ChinweofficerWithheld for tax2,298233,815Form 4
2026-03-25Dempsey PaulaofficerWithheld for tax2,238275,360Form 4
2026-03-25Park Hyon C.officerWithheld for tax2,152354,762Form 4
2026-03-16Abaelu ChinweofficerAward / grant176,057176,057Form 4
2026-03-16Dempsey PaulaofficerAward / grant137,796277,598Form 4
2026-03-16Dempsey PaulaofficerAward / grant246,479246,479Form 4
2026-03-16Wheeler AshleeofficerAward / grant137,796245,239Form 4
2026-03-16Wheeler AshleeofficerAward / grant246,479246,479Form 4
2026-03-16Zeterberg Bridgett C.officerAward / grant137,796321,178Form 4
2026-03-16Zeterberg Bridgett C.officerAward / grant246,479246,479Form 4
2026-03-16HARPER LISA MdirectorAward / grant472,4415,738,894Form 4
2026-03-16HARPER LISA MdirectorAward / grant1,267,6061,267,606Form 4
2026-03-16Abaelu ChinweofficerAward / grant98,426235,113Form 4
2026-03-16Park Hyon C.officerAward / grant137,796356,914Form 4
2026-03-16Park Hyon C.officerAward / grant246,479246,479Form 4
2026-01-03Dempsey PaulaofficerWithheld for tax4,942139,802Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.