Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.69 · now $28.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CURB has typically landed between $26.62 and $31.59 — a range of −7.2% to +10.1% from the issuance price $28.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
473 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CURB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $28.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $28.94 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.03–$29.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.62–$31.59
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 473 windows spanning 2024-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-19 | −9.8% | −9.8% | +1.8% |
| 2026-02-26 | −8.6% | −9.0% | +0.6% |
| 2025-03-12 | −8.4% | −10.4% | +3.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-27 | +18.5% | −1.0% | +18.5% |
| 2026-01-28 | +18.0% | +0.0% | +19.7% |
| 2026-01-26 | +18.0% | −1.1% | +18.0% |
473 overlapping windows · 2024-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+4.9%
n=2
Feb
100%
+7.7%
n=2
Mar
0%
−3.9%
n=2
Apr
50%
+0.8%
n=2
May
50%
+2.3%
n=2
Jun
100%
+3.2%
n=2
Jul
50%
−1.2%
n=2
Aug
50%
−0.3%
n=2
Sep
0%
−2.1%
n=2
Oct
50%
−1.8%
n=2
Nov
100%
+5.5%
n=2
Dec
0%
−2.8%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 839 @ $29.52 | $25K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,550,075 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 2,344 @ $29.51 | $69K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,550,914 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 33,112 @ $29.59 | $980K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,553,258 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 221,812 @ $29.68 | $6.6M | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,586,370 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 100 @ $30.02 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,808,182 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $30.05 | $108K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,808,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 110,144 @ $30.11 | $3.3M | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,811,882 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 500 @ $30.00 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,922,026 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 134,868 @ $30.17 | $4.1M | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,922,526 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 174,293 @ $30.12 | $5.2M | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,057,394 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 1,206 @ $30.10 | $36K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,231,687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 32,927 @ $30.02 | $988K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,232,893 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 9,173 @ $30.04 | $276K | −0.1% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,265,820 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 136,226 @ $30.25 | $4.1M | −1.8% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,274,993 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 135,612 @ $30.15 | $4.1M | −1.8% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,411,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 96,331 @ $30.06 | $2.9M | −1.3% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,546,831 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 20,475 @ $29.76 | $609K | −0.3% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,643,162 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 109,366 @ $29.79 | $3.3M | −1.4% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,663,637 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 134,269 @ $30.11 | $4.0M | −1.7% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,773,003 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Otto Alexander | director | Sale | 38,788 @ $30.17 | $1.2M | −0.5% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,907,272 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Sale | 55,105 @ $30.38 | $1.7M | −26.4% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 153,909 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Lukes David R | director | Sale | 83,663 @ $26.83 | $2.2M | −14.2% of holding | −2.6% | −3.0% | 506,597 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Lukes David R | director | Sale | 39,749 @ $26.80 | $1.1M | −6.3% of holding | −1.5% | −4.5% | 590,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Lukes David R | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $22.45 | $2.2M | −10.6% of holding | −2.6% | +3.8% | 845,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Lukes David R | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $22.54 | $2.3M | −9.6% of holding | −0.2% | +6.9% | 945,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Sale | 28,000 @ $22.81 | $639K | −13.7% of holding | −3.0% | −9.8% | 176,560 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Cattonar John M | director | Withheld for tax | 2,472 | 180,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,472 | 151,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Cattonar John M | director | Award / grant | 45,051 | 183,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Award / grant | 49,326 | 209,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Lukes David R | director | Gift | 42,000 | 42,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Lukes David R | director | Gift | 126,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Solomon Lesley H | officer | Withheld for tax | 408 | 24,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Lukes David R | director | Withheld for tax | 77,816 | 756,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,562 | 159,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Cattonar John M | director | Withheld for tax | 9,320 | 138,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Lukes David R | director | Withheld for tax | 11,537 | 833,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,402 | 179,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Cattonar John M | director | Withheld for tax | 1,893 | 147,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Solomon Lesley H | officer | Withheld for tax | 640 | 24,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Yarian Christina M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 154 | 25,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Award / grant | 9,564 | 183,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Yarian Christina M. | officer | Award / grant | 2,204 | 25,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-22 | Solomon Lesley H | officer | Award / grant | 3,828 | 25,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Lukes David R | director | Gift | 126,000 | 630,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Lukes David R | director | Gift | 126,000 | 126,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,472 | 174,088 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Cattonar John M | director | Withheld for tax | 1,746 | 149,351 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-08 | Solomon Lesley H | officer | Withheld for tax | 411 | 21,618 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Lukes David R | director | Withheld for tax | 70,771 | 1,045,362 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,775 | 204,560 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Cattonar John M | director | Withheld for tax | 6,248 | 151,097 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Lukes David R | director | Withheld for tax | 21,054 | 1,116,133 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,769 | 219,335 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Cattonar John M | director | Withheld for tax | 1,989 | 157,345 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Solomon Lesley H | officer | Withheld for tax | 404 | 22,029 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Yarian Christina M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 150 | 23,412 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Fennerty Conor | officer | Award / grant | 10,124 | 223,104 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Cattonar John M | director | Award / grant | 6,076 | 159,334 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Yarian Christina M. | officer | Award / grant | 988 | 23,562 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-22 | Solomon Lesley H | officer | Award / grant | 4,052 | 22,433 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.