CTVACorteva, Inc.Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $81.01 · now $81.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CTVA has typically landed between $72.66 and $91.32 — a range of −10.3% to +12.7% from the issuance price $81.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,817 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($81.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CTVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $81.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$72.66worst · -10.3%$91.32best · +12.7%
  • now $81.01 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $82.12 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $78.1–$86.13
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $72.66–$91.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,817 windows spanning 2019-05-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−31.9%−31.9%+3.2%
2020-02-18−31.0%−33.6%+0.6%
2020-02-21−29.4%−33.3%+0.0%
3 best
2024-01-18+23.4%+0.0%+23.9%
2020-05-06+23.2%−8.4%+23.2%
2020-03-16+23.0%+0.0%+34.7%

1,817 overlapping windows · 2019-05-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$59.7B
market cap
$1.70
EPS (TTM)
52.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$17.4B
'20'25
Net income$1.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr4.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.11
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $81.01$35.58$107.99
  • DCF (intrinsic)$68.98
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$40.57
  • Analyst target · range $86.00–$103.00$90.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$81.01

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
71%
+4.3%
n=7
Feb
57%
+5.4%
n=7
Mar
71%
+1.4%
n=7
Apr
57%
+1.0%
n=7
May
57%
+1.3%
n=7
Jun
50%
+1.2%
n=8
Jul
50%
+0.2%
n=8
Aug
75%
+1.5%
n=8
Sep
38%
−2.9%
n=8
Oct
57%
+2.0%
n=7
Nov
71%
+4.2%
n=7
Dec
57%
+0.7%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$91$612026-02-20: 2 insider sales, $636K — TITUS BRIAN …2025-08-29: 1 insider sale, $2.8M — King Robert D.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $2.8M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $636K↑ buys↓ salesofficer TITUS BRIAN — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer TITUS BRIAN — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer King Robert D. — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-20TITUS BRIANofficerSale4,311 @ $76.57$330K−26.3% of holding+6.8%−4.0%12,090Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20TITUS BRIANofficerSale4,000 @ $76.53$306K−33.1% of holding+6.8%−4.0%8,090Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-29King Robert D.officerSale37,280 @ $74.20$2.8M−43.1% of holding−12.2%+1.1%49,262Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-13FUERER CORNEL BofficerSale55,242 @ $68.06$3.8M−35.2% of holding+4.2%−19.8%101,641Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-20TITUS BRIANofficerSale26,560 @ $63.74$1.7M−70.1% of holding+4.3%+10.2%11,347Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-19Magro Charles V.directorSale46,905 @ $63.82$3.0M−16.8% of holding+5.2%+10.5%231,896Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

148 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Policinski Christopher J.directorAward / grant4132,768Form 4
2026-07-31Nayyar Nayaki RdirectorAward / grant41336,754Form 4
2026-07-31Giesselman Janet PlautdirectorAward / grant9820,248Form 4
2026-06-01KISSAM LUTHER C IVdirectorAward / grant24,13825,138Form 4
2026-04-30Engel Klaus AdirectorWithheld for tax90640,219Form 4
2026-04-30Lutz Marcos MdirectorWithheld for tax90663,053Form 4
2026-04-30Nayyar Nayaki RdirectorAward / grant40136,255Form 4
2026-04-30Giesselman Janet PlautdirectorAward / grant9620,103Form 4
2026-04-28Grimes Karen H.directorAward / grant2,35018,272Form 4
2026-04-28Engel Klaus AdirectorAward / grant2,35041,125Form 4
2026-04-28Gilson Jean-MarcdirectorAward / grant2,3502,350Form 4
2026-04-28Nayyar Nayaki RdirectorAward / grant2,35035,853Form 4
2026-04-28PAGE GREGORY RdirectorAward / grant3,87069,074Form 4
2026-04-28EVERITT DAVID CdirectorAward / grant2,35019,738Form 4
2026-04-28Lutz Marcos MdirectorAward / grant2,35063,959Form 4
2026-04-28Giesselman Janet PlautdirectorAward / grant2,35020,007Form 4
2026-04-28Ward PatdirectorAward / grant2,35038,432Form 4
2026-04-28Preete Kerry JdirectorAward / grant2,35018,467Form 4
2026-04-28Policinski Christopher J.directorAward / grant2,3502,350Form 4
2026-02-28Magro Charles V.directorWithheld for tax4,958349,214Form 4
2026-02-28King Robert D.officerWithheld for tax57468,664Form 4
2026-02-28Eathington Samuel RofficerWithheld for tax47185,048Form 4
2026-02-28Grimm AudreyofficerWithheld for tax28534,641Form 4
2026-02-28O'Connor Judd MofficerWithheld for tax18852,207Form 4
2026-02-28TITUS BRIANofficerWithheld for tax11110,064Form 4
2026-02-24Magro Charles V.directorAward / grant108,376354,172Form 4
2026-02-24King Robert D.officerAward / grant15,00669,238Form 4
2026-02-24Johnson David PaulofficerAward / grant24,11281,828Form 4
2026-02-24Johnson Jennifer AmyofficerAward / grant12,92217,216Form 4
2026-02-24TITUS BRIANofficerAward / grant2,08510,175Form 4
2026-02-24Grimm AudreyofficerAward / grant11,25534,926Form 4
2026-02-24Eathington Samuel RofficerAward / grant14,17385,519Form 4
2026-02-24O'Connor Judd MofficerAward / grant14,17352,395Form 4
2026-02-20Magro Charles V.directorWithheld for tax6,026245,796Form 4
2026-02-20TITUS BRIANofficerOption exercise4,31116,401Form 4
2026-02-20King Robert D.officerWithheld for tax57654,232Form 4
2026-02-20Eathington Samuel RofficerWithheld for tax57271,346Form 4
2026-02-20Grimm AudreyofficerWithheld for tax38723,671Form 4
2026-02-20O'Connor Judd MofficerWithheld for tax24738,222Form 4
2026-02-20TITUS BRIANofficerWithheld for tax13212,090Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Gary PetersSenatesale2026-05-112026-04-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatesale2025-08-122024-01-04$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2025-07-302023-01-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-22$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.