CTRNCiti Trends, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $58.20 · now $58.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CTRN has typically landed between $44.61 and $75.90 — a range of −23.4% to +30.4% from the issuance price $58.20.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($58.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CTRN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $58.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$44.61worst · -23.4%$75.9best · +30.4%
  • now $58.2 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $59.38 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $53.02–$65.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.61–$75.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−61.2%−61.2%+0.0%
2020-02-21−61.0%−61.0%+0.0%
2020-03-04−60.3%−60.3%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-03+107.7%+0.0%+107.7%
2009-03-05+99.7%−1.3%+99.7%
2009-03-06+97.0%+0.0%+102.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
−5.0%
n=20
Feb
55%
+2.4%
n=20
Mar
50%
+1.6%
n=20
Apr
55%
+2.6%
n=20
May
60%
+2.4%
n=20
Jun
65%
+4.7%
n=20
Jul
45%
−0.8%
n=20
Aug
55%
−3.3%
n=20
Sep
60%
+1.1%
n=20
Oct
60%
+3.3%
n=20
Nov
65%
+3.3%
n=20
Dec
65%
+7.0%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$76$312026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $701K — Powell Lisa A.2026-07-08: 1 insider sale, $7K — George Katrina2026-06-24: 1 insider sale, $42.4M — Fund 1 Investments, LLC2026-04-06: 1 insider sale, $92K — JENKINS MARGARET L2026-03-25: 1 insider purchase, $45K — Heath David A2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $20K — George Katrina2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $11K — George Katrina2025-08-29: 1 insider sale, $36K — JENKINS MARGARET L2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $36K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $11K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $20K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $45K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $92K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $42.4M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $7K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $701K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Powell Lisa A. — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer George Katrina — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed 9 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Fund 1 Investments, LLC — Sale on 2026-06-24, filed same daydirector JENKINS MARGARET L — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Heath David A — Purchase on 2026-03-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer George Katrina — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 32 days after the tradeofficer George Katrina — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector JENKINS MARGARET L — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 7 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Powell Lisa A.officerSale10,000 @ $70.10$701K−41.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open13,970Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-08George KatrinaofficerSale126 @ $56.42$7K−2.2% of holding+25.0%not yet — horizon still open5,713Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2026-06-24Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale750,000 @ $56.50$42.4M−29.1% of holding−1.6%not yet — horizon still open1,823,486Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-06JENKINS MARGARET LdirectorSale2,000 @ $45.91$92K−12.4% of holding−7.7%not yet — horizon still open14,163Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-25Heath David AdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $44.50$45K+12.8% of holding+7.7%not yet — horizon still open8,788Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-05George KatrinaofficerSale450 @ $45.22$20K−7.7% of holding−4.4%−12.6%5,384Form 4 · filed 32 days after the trade
2025-09-03George KatrinaofficerSale316 @ $36.15$11K−5.1% of holding−17.3%+24.4%5,834Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-29JENKINS MARGARET LdirectorSale1,000 @ $36.21$36K−5.8% of holding−16.5%+24.4%16,163Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-06-10George KatrinaofficerSale750 @ $33.94$25K−10.9% of holding−15.3%+27.1%6,150Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-26DUSKIN JONATHANdirectorSale12,000 @ $26.44$317K−26.4% of holding−0.4%+21.4%33,396Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-18George KatrinaofficerSale262 @ $26.86$7K−4.9% of holding+6.5%+19.9%5,079Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

55 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30Powell Lisa A.officerWithheld for tax7123,970Form 4
2026-06-30Plutino Heather LofficerWithheld for tax6620,841Form 4
2026-06-30Koenig KyleofficerWithheld for tax2711,579Form 4
2026-06-30Puri Lovesh KumarofficerWithheld for tax153,943Form 4
2026-06-30George KatrinaofficerWithheld for tax135,839Form 4
2026-06-30Powell Lisa A.officerAward / grant23924,041Form 4
2026-06-30George KatrinaofficerAward / grant415,852Form 4
2026-06-30Koenig KyleofficerAward / grant9511,606Form 4
2026-06-30Plutino Heather LofficerAward / grant23820,907Form 4
2026-06-30Puri Lovesh KumarofficerAward / grant413,958Form 4
2026-06-10Faw Benjamin TaylordirectorAward / grant1,6812,168Form 4
2026-06-10Robinson CaradirectorAward / grant1,68114,633Form 4
2026-06-10JENKINS MARGARET LdirectorAward / grant1,68115,844Form 4
2026-06-10Liu Chaoyang (Charles)directorAward / grant1,6816,969Form 4
2026-06-10Edwards Pamela JdirectorAward / grant1,6813,958Form 4
2026-06-10Kvitko Michael SdirectorAward / grant1,6816,969Form 4
2026-06-10Heath David AdirectorAward / grant1,68110,469Form 4
2026-05-17Powell Lisa A.officerWithheld for tax39823,800Form 4
2026-05-17Plutino Heather LofficerWithheld for tax37120,665Form 4
2026-05-17George KatrinaofficerWithheld for tax1525,789Form 4
2026-05-17Koenig KyleofficerWithheld for tax12311,492Form 4
2026-05-05Powell Lisa A.officerWithheld for tax1,33324,198Form 4
2026-05-05Plutino Heather LofficerWithheld for tax1,25221,036Form 4
2026-05-05Koenig KyleofficerWithheld for tax50411,615Form 4
2026-05-05Puri Lovesh KumarofficerWithheld for tax2633,917Form 4
2026-05-05George KatrinaofficerWithheld for tax2335,941Form 4
2026-04-08Powell Lisa A.officerAward / grant79025,531Form 4
2026-04-08George KatrinaofficerAward / grant7906,174Form 4
2026-04-08Koenig KyleofficerAward / grant79012,119Form 4
2026-04-08Plutino Heather LofficerAward / grant79022,288Form 4
2026-02-19Faw Benjamin TaylordirectorAward / grant487487Form 4
2025-11-18Seipel Kenneth DuanedirectorWithheld for tax7,310685,444Form 4
2025-06-27Plutino Heather LofficerWithheld for tax58421,498Form 4
2025-06-12Powell Lisa A.officerWithheld for tax14724,741Form 4
2025-06-05Heath David AdirectorAward / grant2,2777,788Form 4
2025-06-05Kvitko Michael SdirectorAward / grant2,2775,288Form 4
2025-06-05JENKINS MARGARET LdirectorAward / grant2,27717,163Form 4
2025-06-05Calvert WesleydirectorAward / grant2,2772,277Form 4
2025-06-05Liu Chaoyang (Charles)directorAward / grant2,2775,288Form 4
2025-06-05Edwards Pamela JdirectorAward / grant2,2772,277Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.