CTRECareTrust REIT, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilitiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.98 · now $37.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CTRE has typically landed between $34.27 and $42.25 — a range of −9.8% to +11.2% from the issuance price $37.98.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,072 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-05-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CTRE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$34.27worst · -9.8%$42.25best · +11.2%
  • now $37.98 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $38.76 (+2.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.26–$40.27
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.27–$42.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,072 windows spanning 2014-05-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−65.3%−65.3%+1.1%
2020-02-14−58.1%−58.1%+0.3%
2020-02-13−56.1%−56.1%+2.2%
3 best
2020-03-18+119.2%+0.0%+138.9%
2014-10-10+97.4%+0.0%+99.4%
2014-10-09+96.2%−1.6%+96.2%

3,072 overlapping windows · 2014-05-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+2.0%
n=12
Feb
42%
−1.8%
n=12
Mar
83%
+3.4%
n=12
Apr
67%
+0.5%
n=12
May
75%
+5.8%
n=12
Jun
54%
+0.5%
n=13
Jul
77%
+2.4%
n=13
Aug
69%
+1.6%
n=13
Sep
38%
−3.0%
n=13
Oct
50%
+7.6%
n=12
Nov
58%
+1.9%
n=12
Dec
33%
+1.7%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$43$32↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

38 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-01-31Sedgwick David M.officerWithheld for tax114,274431,109Form 4
2026-01-31Callister JamesofficerWithheld for tax46,267117,750Form 4
2026-01-31BEALE LAURENofficerWithheld for tax12,20870,006Form 4
2026-01-31Callister JamesofficerAward / grant58,379164,017Form 4
2026-01-31Sedgwick David M.officerAward / grant99,240545,383Form 4
2026-01-02BEALE LAURENofficerAward / grant11,13382,214Form 4
2026-01-02Callister JamesofficerAward / grant23,83823,838Form 4
2026-01-02Sedgwick David M.officerAward / grant73,82173,821Form 4
2026-01-02Callister JamesofficerAward / grant23,83823,838Form 4
2026-01-02Bunker Derek JofficerAward / grant11,14511,145Form 4
2026-01-02LAING DIANAdirectorAward / grant3,1053,105Form 4
2026-01-02Olson AnnedirectorAward / grant3,1053,105Form 4
2026-01-02Plumb Spencer GdirectorAward / grant5,7815,781Form 4
2026-01-02Williams Careina D.directorAward / grant3,1053,105Form 4
2026-01-02Sedgwick David M.officerAward / grant73,82173,821Form 4
2026-01-02Plumb Spencer GdirectorAward / grant5,7815,781Form 4
2026-01-02Stapley Gregory K.directorAward / grant5,7815,781Form 4
2026-01-02Williams Careina D.directorAward / grant3,1053,105Form 4
2026-01-02Stapley Gregory K.directorAward / grant5,7815,781Form 4
2026-01-02Bunker Derek JofficerAward / grant11,14511,145Form 4
2026-01-02Olson AnnedirectorAward / grant3,1053,105Form 4
2026-01-02LAING DIANAdirectorAward / grant3,1053,105Form 4
2025-04-29LAING DIANAdirectorAward / grant5,03736,771Form 4
2025-04-29Olson AnnedirectorAward / grant5,03723,155Form 4
2025-04-29Williams Careina D.directorAward / grant5,03723,155Form 4
2025-04-29Plumb Spencer GdirectorAward / grant5,03745,777Form 4
2025-01-31Sedgwick David M.officerWithheld for tax56,378446,143Form 4
2025-01-31Wagner William MofficerWithheld for tax37,797290,522Form 4
2025-01-31Callister JamesofficerWithheld for tax10,915105,638Form 4
2025-01-31BEALE LAURENofficerWithheld for tax8,11171,081Form 4
2025-01-28Sedgwick David M.officerAward / grant45,713502,521Form 4
2025-01-28Wagner William MofficerAward / grant44,468307,151Form 4
2025-01-28Wagner William MofficerAward / grant21,168328,319Form 4
2025-01-28BEALE LAURENofficerAward / grant7,36179,192Form 4
2025-01-28Sedgwick David M.officerAward / grant58,988456,808Form 4
2025-01-28Callister JamesofficerAward / grant21,168116,553Form 4
2024-12-18Wagner William MofficerAward / grant28,308285,747Form 4
2024-12-18Sedgwick David M.officerAward / grant87,657416,747Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.