Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.05 · now $9.05 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CTOS has typically landed between $7.11 and $11.05 — a range of −21.5% to +22.1% from the issuance price $9.05.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,226 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-10-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CTOS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.05 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.02 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.26–$9.79
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.11–$11.05
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −56.6% | −56.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −46.6% | −54.9% | +1.3% |
| 2020-02-21 | −43.0% | −55.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-15 | +89.3% | +0.0% | +89.3% |
| 2024-10-25 | +81.5% | +0.0% | +81.5% |
| 2020-05-29 | +80.6% | −7.7% | +87.9% |
2,226 overlapping windows · 2017-10-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-30 | PE One Source Holdings, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,143,635 @ $4.00 | $32.6M | +5.5% of holding | −18.2% | +13.1% | 156,743,635 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-30 | PLATINUM EQUITY, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,143,635 @ $4.00 | $32.6M | +5.5% of holding | −18.2% | +13.1% | 156,743,635 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
122 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | McMonagle Ryan | director | Withheld for tax | 54,906 | 695,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eperjesy Christopher J | officer | Withheld for tax | 40,547 | 283,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ross Fredrick M. Jr. | director | Withheld for tax | 39,441 | 540,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ross Joe P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 33,788 | 377,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rich Thomas R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,538 | 363,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | JOLAS PAUL M | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,923 | 81,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | JOLAS PAUL M | officer | Award / grant | 72,500 | 72,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | JOLAS PAUL M | officer | Option exercise | 50,625 | 101,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | BADER PAUL T | director | Award / grant | 19,225 | 19,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rich Thomas R. | officer | Option exercise | 75,000 | 386,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rich Thomas R. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rich Thomas R. | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rich Thomas R. | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eperjesy Christopher J | officer | Option exercise | 22,500 | 67,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McMonagle Ryan | director | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | EIN MARK | director | Award / grant | 19,225 | 19,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eperjesy Christopher J | officer | Award / grant | 95,000 | 95,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eperjesy Christopher J | officer | Option exercise | 90,000 | 324,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | NELSON GEORGIA R | director | Award / grant | 19,225 | 19,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eperjesy Christopher J | officer | Option exercise | 22,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McMonagle Ryan | director | Option exercise | 40,625 | 121,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McMonagle Ryan | director | Option exercise | 81,250 | 81,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Jackson Mary M. | director | Award / grant | 19,225 | 19,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Eperjesy Christopher J | officer | Option exercise | 45,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Heinberg Marshall A | director | Award / grant | 34,605 | 34,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McMonagle Ryan | director | Option exercise | 121,875 | 750,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | JOLAS PAUL M | officer | Option exercise | 16,875 | 16,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ross Fredrick M. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 131,250 | 579,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ross Fredrick M. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 87,500 | 87,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ross Fredrick M. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 43,750 | 131,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ross Joe P. | officer | Option exercise | 75,000 | 411,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ross Fredrick M. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ross Joe P. | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ross Joe P. | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ross Joe P. | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | JOLAS PAUL M | officer | Option exercise | 16,875 | 33,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | JOLAS PAUL M | officer | Option exercise | 16,875 | 50,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | EIN MARK | director | Option exercise | 26,859 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | BADER PAUL T | director | Option exercise | 26,859 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Jackson Mary M. | director | Option exercise | 26,859 | 82,032 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.