CTOCTO Realty Growth, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.70 · now $20.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CTO has typically landed between $19.07 and $22.75 — a range of −7.9% to +9.9% from the issuance price $20.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CTO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$19.07worst · -7.9%$22.75best · +9.9%
  • now $20.7 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.94 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.18–$21.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.07–$22.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−46.0%−46.0%+0.0%
2020-02-19−40.0%−40.0%+2.4%
2008-09-23−39.9%−39.9%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+55.2%−0.3%+58.1%
2008-11-20+50.9%+0.0%+56.6%
2008-11-19+50.0%−1.7%+53.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−0.5%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Mar
55%
+2.4%
n=20
Apr
40%
+0.2%
n=20
May
40%
−0.9%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.2%
n=20
Jul
70%
+1.3%
n=20
Aug
50%
+1.5%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Oct
40%
−0.6%
n=20
Nov
70%
+3.2%
n=20
Dec
55%
+0.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$23$142025-09-12: 2 insider purchases, $22K — Vorakoun Lisa, Greathouse Steven Robert2025-09-11: 4 insider purchases, $135K — Albright John P, Mays Philip, Smith Daniel Earl …2025-09: 6 open-market purchases, $158K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Vorakoun Lisa — Purchase on 2025-09-12, filed same dayofficer Greathouse Steven Robert — Purchase on 2025-09-12, filed same daydirector Albright John P — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed same daydirector Albright John P — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Mays Philip — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed same dayofficer Smith Daniel Earl — Purchase on 2025-09-11, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-09-12Vorakoun LisaofficerPurchase750 @ $16.59$12K+1.6% of holding−6.3%+17.3%46,759Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-12Greathouse Steven RobertofficerPurchase600 @ $16.70$10K+0.3% of holding−6.3%+17.3%184,889Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-11Albright John PdirectorPurchase4,200 @ $16.53$69K+0.7% of holding−7.5%+16.4%632,547Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-11Albright John PdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $16.38$33K+0.3% of holding−7.5%+16.4%634,547Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-09-11Mays PhilipofficerPurchase1,000 @ $16.61$17K+7.2% of holding−7.5%+16.4%14,841Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-11Smith Daniel EarlofficerPurchase1,000 @ $16.50$17K+0.5% of holding−7.5%+16.4%194,496Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-26Albright John PdirectorPurchase3,800 @ $17.05$65K+0.6% of holding−3.9%−4.9%628,347Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-26Brokaw George RdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $16.94$34K+2.2% of holding−3.9%−4.9%91,701Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-26Mays PhilipofficerPurchase1,000 @ $17.29$17K+7.8% of holding−3.9%−4.9%13,841Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-26Smith Daniel EarlofficerPurchase1,000 @ $17.00$17K+0.5% of holding−3.9%−4.9%193,496Form 4 · filed same day
2023-03-17Smith Daniel EarlofficerPurchase1,000 @ $16.00$16K+0.5% of holding−3.3%−5.5%192,496Form 4 · filed 770 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Haga Christopher WdirectorAward / grant1,00432,049Form 4
2026-07-01Gable Robert BlakesleedirectorAward / grant91452,800Form 4
2026-07-01Drew Christopher JdirectorAward / grant77928,183Form 4
2026-07-01FRANKLIN LAURA MdirectorAward / grant59963,197Form 4
2026-04-01Haga Christopher WdirectorAward / grant1,10831,045Form 4
2026-04-01Gable Robert BlakesleedirectorAward / grant1,00951,886Form 4
2026-04-01Drew Christopher JdirectorAward / grant86027,404Form 4
2026-04-01FRANKLIN LAURA MdirectorAward / grant66162,342Form 4
2026-02-11Haga Christopher WdirectorAward / grant3,46229,937Form 4
2026-02-11FRANKLIN LAURA MdirectorAward / grant3,46261,386Form 4
2026-02-11Drew Christopher JdirectorAward / grant3,46226,544Form 4
2026-02-11Brokaw George RdirectorAward / grant3,46296,266Form 4
2026-02-11Gable Robert BlakesleedirectorAward / grant3,46250,877Form 4
2026-02-11Vorakoun LisaofficerAward / grant10,08958,853Form 4
2026-02-11Albright John PdirectorAward / grant37,114695,395Form 4
2026-02-11Mays PhilipofficerAward / grant14,96528,537Form 4
2026-02-11Smith Daniel EarlofficerAward / grant11,266208,842Form 4
2026-02-11Greathouse Steven RobertofficerAward / grant17,487215,541Form 4
2026-01-28Albright John PdirectorWithheld for tax11,727658,281Form 4
2026-01-28Smith Daniel EarlofficerWithheld for tax4,548197,576Form 4
2026-01-28Greathouse Steven RobertofficerWithheld for tax3,513198,054Form 4
2026-01-28Vorakoun LisaofficerWithheld for tax1,87648,764Form 4
2026-01-28Mays PhilipofficerWithheld for tax1,26913,572Form 4
2026-01-12Albright John PdirectorWithheld for tax23,702670,008Form 4
2026-01-12Smith Daniel EarlofficerWithheld for tax7,174202,124Form 4
2026-01-12Greathouse Steven RobertofficerWithheld for tax5,981201,570Form 4
2026-01-12Vorakoun LisaofficerWithheld for tax1,63550,640Form 4
2026-01-12Smith Daniel EarlofficerAward / grant16,997209,298Form 4
2026-01-12Greathouse Steven RobertofficerAward / grant22,662207,551Form 4
2026-01-12Albright John PdirectorAward / grant59,163693,710Form 4
2026-01-12Vorakoun LisaofficerAward / grant5,51652,275Form 4
2026-01-02Haga Christopher WdirectorAward / grant1,16226,475Form 4
2026-01-02Gable Robert BlakesleedirectorAward / grant1,05747,415Form 4
2026-01-02Drew Christopher JdirectorAward / grant90123,082Form 4
2026-01-02FRANKLIN LAURA MdirectorAward / grant69357,924Form 4
2025-12-29Smith Daniel EarlofficerGift2,000192,301Form 4
2025-12-26Smith Daniel EarlofficerGift195194,301Form 4
2025-10-01Haga Christopher WdirectorAward / grant1,26525,313Form 4
2025-10-01Gable Robert BlakesleedirectorAward / grant1,15246,358Form 4
2025-10-01Drew Christopher JdirectorAward / grant98222,181Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.