Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.76 · now $13.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CTNM has typically landed between $10.01 and $18.88 — a range of −27.2% to +37.2% from the issuance price $13.76.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
593 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-04-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CTNM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.76 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.66 (-0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.12–$15.21
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.01–$18.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 593 windows spanning 2024-04-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-12 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +4.6% |
| 2025-03-13 | −43.8% | −43.8% | +10.8% |
| 2025-03-25 | −42.9% | −49.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-08 | +93.5% | −0.6% | +93.5% |
| 2025-07-29 | +92.5% | +0.0% | +99.8% |
| 2025-07-17 | +92.2% | +0.0% | +92.2% |
593 overlapping windows · 2024-04-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−4.2%
n=2
Feb
50%
−10.3%
n=2
Mar
0%
−7.9%
n=2
Apr
0%
−21.5%
n=2
May
33%
−2.5%
n=3
Jun
100%
+15.0%
n=3
Jul
67%
+19.0%
n=3
Aug
67%
+26.4%
n=3
Sep
33%
−1.5%
n=3
Oct
0%
−9.4%
n=2
Nov
50%
−5.2%
n=2
Dec
50%
+0.8%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $16.46 | $41K | −12.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,217 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $16.01 | $40K | −12.7% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,217 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 25 @ $16.00 | $400 | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $16.00 | $40K | −12.7% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,217 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-08 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 1,015 @ $16.00 | $16K | −0.7% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 5,852 @ $15.67 | $92K | −4.1% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,703 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 2,501 @ $16.24 | $41K | −1.8% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,202 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 28,826 @ $16.04 | $462K | −17.1% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,372 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Watkins Tim | officer | Sale | 10,833 @ $16.02 | $174K | −54.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,961 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $16.01 | $160K | −36.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,217 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 4,170 @ $13.16 | $55K | −2.9% of holding | +17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,372 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 3,870 @ $13.06 | $51K | −2.6% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 143,842 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 300 @ $13.84 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 143,542 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 4,170 @ $13.43 | $56K | −2.7% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,712 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 4,170 @ $15.01 | $63K | −2.7% of holding | −9.9% | −6.5% | 151,882 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Watkins Tim | officer | Sale | 3,611 @ $15.02 | $54K | −100.0% of holding | −9.9% | −6.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-25 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 3,824 @ $16.01 | $61K | −2.4% of holding | −6.8% | −3.2% | 156,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $16.02 | $43K | −15.3% of holding | −6.8% | −3.2% | 14,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Sale | 4,400 @ $16.02 | $70K | −22.7% of holding | −12.5% | −5.0% | 14,954 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 4,300 @ $16.03 | $69K | −2.7% of holding | −12.5% | −5.0% | 156,052 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 100 @ $16.00 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −18.7% | −11.9% | 156,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 400 @ $16.00 | $6K | −0.3% of holding | −10.5% | −12.8% | 156,052 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Sale | 400 @ $16.00 | $6K | −2.6% of holding | −10.5% | −12.8% | 14,954 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $14.82 | $44K | −1.9% of holding | −8.0% | −11.8% | 157,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 1,170 @ $15.25 | $18K | −0.7% of holding | −8.0% | −11.8% | 156,052 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Watkins Tim | officer | Sale | 2,800 @ $14.09 | $39K | −77.5% of holding | +7.7% | +1.9% | 811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Watkins Tim | officer | Sale | 811 @ $14.48 | $12K | −100.0% of holding | +7.7% | +1.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 3,670 @ $10.35 | $38K | −2.2% of holding | +48.2% | +47.5% | 160,722 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 500 @ $11.13 | $6K | −0.3% of holding | +48.2% | +47.5% | 160,222 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Watkins Tim | officer | Sale | 3,611 @ $12.06 | $44K | −100.0% of holding | +20.1% | +17.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Sale | 4,170 @ $12.23 | $51K | −2.5% of holding | +4.4% | +8.7% | 164,392 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
69 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 19,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 274,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 19,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 276,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 25 | 135,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 25 | 33,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 19,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 1,015 | 136,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 279,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 1,015 | 33,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 4,183 | 143,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 4,183 | 34,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Watkins Tim | officer | Option exercise | 10,833 | 19,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 28,826 | 168,198 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 24,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 27,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Watkins Tim | officer | Option exercise | 10,833 | 238,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 118,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 281,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 28,826 | 38,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Ignelzi Troy A. | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Boyce Sarah | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Brady Todd R. | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Schimmelpennink Evert B. | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Ware Olivia C | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Lyons-Williams Lori | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Miralles Gines Diego | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Watkins Tim | officer | Option exercise | 3,611 | 3,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Watkins Tim | officer | Option exercise | 3,611 | 249,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 3,824 | 159,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 2,700 | 17,654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 3,824 | 67,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-25 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 2,700 | 120,917 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 4,400 | 19,354 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 4,300 | 160,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 4,400 | 123,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 4,300 | 71,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 156,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Lorrain Daniel S. | officer | Option exercise | 100 | 75,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Stengone Carmine N. | director | Option exercise | 400 | 15,354 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.