Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.77 · now $2.77 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CTMX has typically landed between $2.01 and $4.10 — a range of −27.5% to +47.9% from the issuance price $2.77.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,727 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-10-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CTMX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.77 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.68 (-3.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.32–$3.04
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.01–$4.1
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-03 | −62.1% | −62.1% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-06 | −61.8% | −61.8% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-02 | −61.1% | −62.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-10 | +405.5% | +0.0% | +405.5% |
| 2025-04-11 | +346.9% | +0.0% | +369.5% |
| 2025-04-29 | +306.7% | +0.0% | +306.7% |
2,727 overlapping windows · 2015-10-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Sale | 1,624 @ $3.05 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | +21.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 295,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | McCarthy Sean A. | director | Sale | 118,969 @ $6.42 | $764K | −9.9% of holding | −15.2% | −62.2% | 1,078,922 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | BELVIN MARCIA | officer | Sale | 31,492 @ $6.42 | $202K | −9.5% of holding | −15.2% | −62.2% | 300,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Chu Yu-Waye | officer | Sale | 21,279 @ $6.42 | $137K | −10.1% of holding | −15.2% | −62.2% | 189,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Sale | 19,323 @ $6.42 | $124K | −6.1% of holding | −15.2% | −62.2% | 296,948 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | McCarthy Sean A. | director | Sale | 101,793 @ $4.54 | $462K | −9.3% of holding | −9.6% | −18.8% | 987,891 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | McCarthy Sean A. | director | Sale | 55,511 @ $2.69 | $149K | −4.8% of holding | −7.8% | +54.3% | 1,089,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | BELVIN MARCIA | officer | Sale | 13,884 @ $2.69 | $37K | −4.9% of holding | −7.8% | +54.3% | 272,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Sale | 10,614 @ $2.69 | $29K | −4.5% of holding | −7.8% | +54.3% | 226,271 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Sale | 1,641 @ $2.95 | $5K | −0.8% of holding | −18.0% | +37.5% | 199,385 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | McCarthy Sean A. | director | Sale | 37,656 @ $0.60 | $23K | −3.6% of holding | +10.3% | +219.2% | 995,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | BELVIN MARCIA | officer | Sale | 19,512 @ $0.60 | $12K | −7.3% of holding | +10.3% | +219.2% | 248,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | ROWLAND LLOYD A | officer | Sale | 10,203 @ $0.60 | $6K | −7.8% of holding | +10.3% | +219.2% | 120,594 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Sale | 8,551 @ $0.60 | $5K | −4.1% of holding | +10.3% | +219.2% | 201,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Chu Yu-Waye | officer | Sale | 4,025 @ $0.60 | $2K | −2.9% of holding | +10.3% | +219.2% | 135,725 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Carvajal Alejandra | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Carvajal Alejandra | officer | Award / grant | 450,000 | 450,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-24 | Fuchs Charles S. | director | Award / grant | 118,000 | 118,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Gilbert Halley E | director | Award / grant | 59,000 | 59,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Meyers James R | director | Award / grant | 59,000 | 59,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Young Matthew P. | director | Award / grant | 59,000 | 59,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Su Zhen | director | Award / grant | 59,000 | 59,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mohindru Mani | director | Award / grant | 59,000 | 59,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ashworth Alan | director | Award / grant | 59,000 | 59,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Jones Elaine V | director | Award / grant | 59,000 | 59,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | McCarthy Sean A. | director | Award / grant | 210,000 | 1,197,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | BELVIN MARCIA | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 332,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | BELVIN MARCIA | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 325,000 | 325,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 90,000 | 316,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | McCarthy Sean A. | director | Award / grant | 980,000 | 980,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Chu Yu-Waye | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 210,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Chu Yu-Waye | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Lester Rachael | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Lester Rachael | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Lester Rachael | officer | Award / grant | 650,000 | 650,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | BELVIN MARCIA | officer | Award / grant | 18,150 | 18,150 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | Chu Yu-Waye | officer | Award / grant | 87,500 | 87,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | Chu Yu-Waye | officer | Award / grant | 43,750 | 43,750 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 39,150 | 39,150 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | McCarthy Sean A. | director | Award / grant | 285,000 | 285,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 78,250 | 78,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | McCarthy Sean A. | director | Award / grant | 570,000 | 570,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | BELVIN MARCIA | officer | Award / grant | 36,300 | 36,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | McCarthy Sean A. | director | Option exercise | 150,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | McCarthy Sean A. | director | Option exercise | 150,000 | 1,145,195 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | BELVIN MARCIA | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 286,136 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | BELVIN MARCIA | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Ogden Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 236,885 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Mohindru Mani | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Young Matthew P. | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Jones Elaine V | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Meyers James R | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Ashworth Alan | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.