Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.11 · now $18.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CTGO has typically landed between $13.96 and $23.48 — a range of −22.9% to +29.7% from the issuance price $18.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,934 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-12-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CTGO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.13 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.35–$19.91
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.96–$23.48
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-06-19 | −48.8% | −48.8% | +2.0% |
| 2024-11-19 | −46.9% | −47.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-02 | −46.8% | −46.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-07-25 | +140.0% | +0.0% | +140.0% |
| 2016-07-26 | +139.0% | +0.0% | +139.0% |
| 2016-07-28 | +134.1% | +0.0% | +139.0% |
3,934 overlapping windows · 2010-12-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Clark Michael Aaron | officer | Sale | 1,289 @ $20.94 | $27K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,709 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Larimer David Gregory | officer | Sale | 96 @ $20.94 | $2K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,997 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-25 | Van Nieuwenhuyse Rick | director | Purchase | 4,111 @ $15.24 | $63K | +0.7% of holding | +9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 555,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Nauman Clynton R. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $18.56 | $186K | +68.7% of holding | +14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,550 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Van Nieuwenhuyse Rick | director | Sale | 21,621 @ $17.92 | $387K | −4.0% of holding | +30.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 517,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Clark Michael Aaron | officer | Sale | 10,075 @ $17.92 | $181K | −20.2% of holding | +30.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,798 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Larimer David Gregory | officer | Sale | 2,775 @ $17.92 | $50K | −17.8% of holding | +30.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Van Nieuwenhuyse Rick | director | Sale | 19,608 @ $26.00 | $510K | −3.5% of holding | +9.6% | −46.7% | 538,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Clark Michael Aaron | officer | Sale | 10,097 @ $26.00 | $263K | −16.8% of holding | +9.6% | −46.7% | 49,873 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Shortz Richard | director | Sale | 33,150 @ $21.08 | $699K | −28.3% of holding | +6.8% | +12.4% | 84,050 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-18 | Clark Michael Aaron | officer | Sale | 2,822 @ $21.66 | $61K | −4.5% of holding | +6.8% | +12.4% | 59,970 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-10 | Green Darwin | director | Sale | 1,818 @ $20.23 | $37K | −5.1% of holding | −2.2% | +19.4% | 33,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-22 | Van Nieuwenhuyse Rick | director | Purchase | 7,500 @ $13.70 | $103K | +1.4% of holding | +15.3% | +40.4% | 558,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Van Nieuwenhuyse Rick | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $10.22 | $51K | +0.9% of holding | +34.9% | +131.6% | 550,869 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Green Darwin | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $10.40 | $16K | −4.0% of holding | +38.6% | +124.4% | 35,812 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Van Nieuwenhuyse Rick | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $9.98 | $100K | +1.9% of holding | +54.6% | +137.0% | 545,869 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | JUNEAU JOHN B | director | Purchase | 8,300 @ $11.83 | $98K | +2.7% of holding | −3.4% | +86.8% | 319,411 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Van Nieuwenhuyse Rick | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $12.89 | $129K | +2.0% of holding | −12.3% | +68.2% | 498,332 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | COMPOFELICE JOSEPH S | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $12.10 | $121K | +6.7% of holding | −12.3% | +68.2% | 158,498 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-09 | JUNEAU JOHN B | director | Purchase | 4,999 @ $12.04 | $60K | +1.6% of holding | −10.3% | +74.4% | 311,111 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-06 | JUNEAU JOHN B | director | Purchase | 4,992 @ $11.76 | $59K | +1.7% of holding | −8.0% | +70.9% | 306,112 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-05 | JUNEAU JOHN B | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $12.22 | $61K | +1.7% of holding | −11.7% | +63.4% | 301,120 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
22 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | Khunkhun Shawn | director | Option exercise | 20,650 | 90,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Khunkhun Shawn | director | Option exercise | 20,650 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Devine Darren Paul | director | Option exercise | 10,325 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Devine Darren Paul | director | Option exercise | 10,325 | 49,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Larimer David Gregory | officer | Award / grant | 5,300 | 18,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Nauman Clynton R. | director | Award / grant | 10,800 | 35,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Van Nieuwenhuyse Rick | director | Award / grant | 57,500 | 57,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Clark Michael Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 16,200 | 55,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Clark Michael Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 27,500 | 27,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Cinnamond Michael Andrew | director | Award / grant | 10,800 | 26,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Larimer David Gregory | officer | Award / grant | 9,000 | 9,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | JUNEAU JOHN B | director | Award / grant | 10,800 | 353,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Van Nieuwenhuyse Rick | director | Award / grant | 34,000 | 551,140 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Cinnamond Michael Andrew | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 15,694 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Nauman Clynton R. | director | Award / grant | 7,550 | 14,550 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-19 | Van Nieuwenhuyse Rick | director | Award / grant | 98,300 | 535,869 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-19 | COMPOFELICE JOSEPH S | director | Award / grant | 19,050 | 167,548 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-19 | Clark Michael Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 36,700 | 62,792 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-19 | Green Darwin | director | Award / grant | 19,050 | 37,312 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-19 | JUNEAU JOHN B | director | Award / grant | 22,900 | 342,311 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-19 | Freeman Curtis J. | director | Award / grant | 19,050 | 162,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-19 | Shortz Richard | director | Award / grant | 19,050 | 117,200 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.