Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.56 · now $33.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CTEV has typically landed between $19.39 and $54.79 — a range of −42.2% to +63.3% from the issuance price $33.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
372 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-02-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CTEV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $33.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.11 (+4.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.71–$43.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.39–$54.79
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 372 windows spanning 2025-02-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-23 | −53.0% | −53.0% | +0.0% |
| 2025-11-07 | −50.9% | −52.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-28 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-15 | +121.1% | +0.0% | +130.9% |
| 2025-05-06 | +89.3% | +0.0% | +89.6% |
| 2025-05-07 | +86.3% | +0.0% | +86.3% |
372 overlapping windows · 2025-02-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−36.5%
n=1
Feb
0%
−50.4%
n=1
Mar
50%
+9.8%
n=2
Apr
100%
+28.8%
n=2
May
100%
+37.3%
n=2
Jun
100%
+26.6%
n=2
Jul
0%
−22.5%
n=2
Aug
100%
+74.1%
n=2
Sep
0%
−19.4%
n=2
Oct
100%
+22.6%
n=1
Nov
0%
−16.9%
n=1
Dec
0%
−20.9%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Dalton Travis | director | Purchase | 1,950 @ $38.48 | $75K | +3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,322 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Dalton Travis | director | Purchase | 4,500 @ $38.81 | $175K | +9.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,372 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Misencik Tiffani | officer | Sale | 8,850 @ $40.07 | $355K | −6.7% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,723 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Mintz William B. | officer | Sale | 8,431 @ $34.24 | $289K | −10.6% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Carol Nutter | officer | Purchase | 875 @ $28.41 | $25K | +1.9% of holding | +7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Prince John Michael | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $16.00 | $160K | +46.2% of holding | +79.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,662 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Dalton Travis | director | Purchase | 11,200 @ $11.88 | $133K | +32.3% of holding | +80.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Dalton Travis | director | Purchase | 9,720 @ $12.92 | $126K | +39.0% of holding | +80.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Kim Michael | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $16.65 | $50K | +1.6% of holding | +80.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 185,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Purchase | 1,300 @ $17.69 | $23K | +0.6% of holding | +3.1% | +88.1% | 206,152 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Kim Michael | officer | Purchase | 15,000 @ $16.50 | $248K | +8.9% of holding | +5.1% | +109.2% | 182,878 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | O'Neil Tara | officer | Purchase | 750 @ $12.99 | $10K | +2.8% of holding | +18.2% | +163.7% | 27,199 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Kim Michael | officer | Purchase | 30,000 @ $14.30 | $429K | +27.8% of holding | +25.0% | +179.7% | 137,973 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Dalton Travis | director | Purchase | 15,380 @ $13.00 | $200K | +160.7% of holding | +25.0% | +179.7% | 24,952 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Dalton Travis | director | Purchase | 5,290 @ $47.23 | $250K | +123.5% of holding | −10.5% | −67.6% | 9,572 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Kim Michael | officer | Purchase | 9,600 @ $38.25 | $367K | +10.0% of holding | −0.1% | −56.3% | 105,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Mintz William B. | officer | Purchase | 916 @ $38.00 | $35K | +1.4% of holding | −0.1% | −56.3% | 65,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | O'Neil Tara | officer | Purchase | 625 @ $38.84 | $24K | +2.6% of holding | −0.1% | −56.3% | 25,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | H&F Corporate Investors VIII, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 789,936 @ $48.67 | $38.4M | −28.1% of holding | −35.9% | −85.1% | 2,024,899 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | H&F Corporate Investors VIII, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 354,524 @ $48.67 | $17.3M | −28.1% of holding | −35.9% | −85.1% | 908,778 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | H&F Corporate Investors VIII, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 264,336 @ $48.67 | $12.9M | −28.1% of holding | −35.9% | −85.1% | 677,590 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | H&F Corporate Investors VIII, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 66,997 @ $48.67 | $3.3M | −28.1% of holding | −35.9% | −85.1% | 171,740 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | H&F Corporate Investors VIII, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,722 @ $48.67 | $1.0M | −28.1% of holding | −35.9% | −85.1% | 53,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | H&F Corporate Investors VIII, Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,485 @ $48.67 | $170K | −28.1% of holding | −35.9% | −85.1% | 8,932 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Dalton Travis | director | Purchase | 3,982 @ $58.30 | $232K | +1327.3% of holding | +0.0% | −73.6% | 4,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Dalton Travis | director | Purchase | 300 @ $54.21 | $16K | ownership Δ n/a | +25.5% | −67.7% | 300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Hogge Jerome | officer | Purchase | 5,621 @ $53.51 | $301K | +6.7% of holding | +28.8% | −62.7% | 90,023 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Hogge Jerome | officer | Purchase | 12,500 @ $27.94 | $349K | +17.4% of holding | +46.4% | +26.2% | 84,402 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Purchase | 3,600 @ $27.73 | $100K | +2.6% of holding | +46.4% | +26.2% | 143,861 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Dalton Travis | director | Purchase | 3,773 @ $26.50 | $100K | +1.6% of holding | +43.6% | +47.1% | 243,058 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Purchase | 17,060 @ $22.02 | $376K | +59.3% of holding | +77.0% | +147.6% | 45,810 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Purchase | 11,689 @ $21.95 | $257K | +141.9% of holding | +77.0% | +147.6% | 19,927 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | O'Neil Tara | officer | Purchase | 440 @ $21.83 | $10K | +1.8% of holding | +70.2% | +200.0% | 24,403 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Purchase | 8,238 @ $19.62 | $162K | ownership Δ n/a | +20.2% | +281.8% | 8,238 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Dalton Travis | director | Purchase | 5,252 @ $19.20 | $101K | +2.2% of holding | +20.2% | +281.8% | 239,285 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Purchase | 345 @ $21.08 | $7K | ownership Δ n/a | +20.2% | +281.8% | 345 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Purchase | 336 @ $20.80 | $7K | ownership Δ n/a | +20.2% | +281.8% | 336 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
103 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Letham Thomas Benjamin | director | Award / grant | 2,880 | 2,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,711 | 194,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Mintz William B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,622 | 79,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Albinson Brock | officer | Award / grant | 3,649 | 33,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Clarke Richard A | director | Award / grant | 8,977 | 24,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Klein Michael Stuart | director | Award / grant | 8,977 | 24,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Klapstein Julie D | director | Award / grant | 8,977 | 24,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Kap Jason Lamar | director | Award / grant | 8,977 | 16,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Colaluca Anthony Jr | director | Award / grant | 8,977 | 24,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | HARRIS C MARTIN | director | Award / grant | 8,977 | 24,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Prince John Michael | director | Award / grant | 8,977 | 21,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Albinson Brock | officer | Award / grant | 2,956 | 30,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Dalton Travis | director | Withheld for tax | 13,806 | 229,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | White Dale A. | director | Withheld for tax | 12,542 | 145,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Dalton Travis | director | Withheld for tax | 9,824 | 219,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,331 | 138,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Hogge Jerome | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,894 | 93,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kim Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,107 | 133,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Hogge Jerome | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,906 | 96,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Misencik Tiffani | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,660 | 106,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | White Dale A. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,616 | 158,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kim Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,608 | 136,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Carol Nutter | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,229 | 29,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | O'Neil Tara | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,223 | 24,983 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Mintz William B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,137 | 64,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Carol Nutter | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,085 | 27,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kim Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 678 | 135,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | O'Neil Tara | officer | Withheld for tax | 531 | 26,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Carol Nutter | officer | Withheld for tax | 498 | 29,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | O'Neil Tara | officer | Withheld for tax | 373 | 26,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kim Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 189 | 137,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | O'Neil Tara | officer | Withheld for tax | 89 | 27,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Carol Nutter | officer | Disposition | 6,127 | 6,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Albinson Brock | officer | Award / grant | 23,243 | 27,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | O'Neil Tara | officer | Disposition | 6,967 | 6,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kim Michael | officer | Award / grant | 34,487 | 167,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Hogge Jerome | officer | Disposition | 23,820 | 23,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Award / grant | 66,322 | 204,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Garis Douglas Michael | officer | Disposition | 25,488 | 25,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Misencik Tiffani | officer | Disposition | 10,123 | 10,124 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.