CTASCintas CorporationIndustrials · Specialty Business Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $199.46 · now $199.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CTAS has typically landed between $182.41 and $219.29 — a range of −8.6% to +9.9% from the issuance price $199.46.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($199.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CTAS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $199.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$182.41worst · -8.6%$219.29best · +9.9%
  • now $199.46 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $203.16 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $195.53–$210.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $182.41–$219.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−46.4%−46.4%+0.0%
2020-03-04−42.3%−45.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−41.2%−41.2%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06+38.2%−1.6%+39.8%
2009-03-05+37.7%−2.2%+39.1%
2020-05-07+36.6%−6.5%+36.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$82.4B
market cap
$4.91
EPS (TTM)
41.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-23
next earnings
Revenue$11.3B
'21'26
Net income$2.0B
'21'26
Free cash flow$1.9B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr17.8%
'21'26
ROE · by yr38.9%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.53
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $199.46$137.07$258.36
  • DCF (intrinsic)$145.44
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$150.51
  • Analyst target · range $214.00–$250.00$230.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$199.46

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+0.4%
n=18
Feb
68%
+0.9%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.8%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.7%
n=19
May
74%
+2.4%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.7%
n=19
Jul
84%
+6.9%
n=19
Aug
68%
+2.2%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.0%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.1%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.9%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$223$1632026-07-22: 1 insider sale, $872K — TYSOE RONALD W2026-07-16: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Barstad Melanie W.2026-04-20: 1 insider sale, $835K — TYSOE RONALD W2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $835K2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $2.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector TYSOE RONALD W — Sale on 2026-07-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Barstad Melanie W. — Sale on 2026-07-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TYSOE RONALD W — Sale on 2026-04-20, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-22TYSOE RONALD WdirectorSale4,363 @ $199.90$872K−16.3% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open22,448Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16Barstad Melanie W.directorSale9,142 @ $202.94$1.9M−25.6% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open26,592Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-20TYSOE RONALD WdirectorSale4,666 @ $178.87$835K−17.2% of holding−6.9%not yet — horizon still open22,448Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-30TYSOE RONALD WdirectorSale5,084 @ $223.47$1.1M−18.8% of holding−8.7%−24.6%21,945Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28Schneider Todd M.directorSale17,301 @ $220.90$3.8M−2.7% of holding−4.5%−22.7%622,712Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21MUCCI MARTINdirectorPurchase1,200 @ $222.55$267K+84.4% of holding−3.8%−20.5%2,621Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-14TYSOE RONALD WdirectorSale8,521 @ $208.96$1.8M−24.0% of holding−6.8%−33.4%27,029Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07Rozakis JimofficerSale2,000 @ $190.37$381K−0.8% of holding+1.6%−28.5%256,528Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

292 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Schneider Todd M.directorAward / grant57,944727,006Form 4
2026-08-10Schneider Todd M.directorWithheld for tax35,599691,407Form 4
2026-08-10FARMER SCOTT DdirectorWithheld for tax15,92387,899Form 4
2026-08-10Rozakis JimofficerAward / grant10,695285,808Form 4
2026-08-10Garula ScottofficerAward / grant10,695108,453Form 4
2026-08-10Denton David BrockofficerAward / grant5,34831,205Form 4
2026-08-10Rozakis JimofficerWithheld for tax3,643282,720Form 4
2026-08-10Denton David BrockofficerWithheld for tax3,47928,096Form 4
2026-08-10Garula ScottofficerWithheld for tax2,958105,495Form 4
2026-08-10FARMER SCOTT DdirectorAward / grant830103,822Form 4
2026-08-10Rozakis JimofficerAward / grant555286,363Form 4
2026-08-10Denton David BrockofficerAward / grant37031,575Form 4
2026-08-10Rozakis JimofficerAward / grant5,9885,988Form 4
2026-08-10Rozakis JimofficerAward / grant35,99535,995Form 4
2026-08-10Denton David BrockofficerAward / grant17,99917,999Form 4
2026-08-10Denton David BrockofficerAward / grant4,4354,435Form 4
2026-07-28Barstad Melanie W.directorAward / grant1484,734Form 4
2026-07-28CARNAHAN KAREN LdirectorAward / grant1346,816Form 4
2026-07-28Coletti Robert E.directorAward / grant11611,363Form 4
2026-07-22TYSOE RONALD WdirectorWithheld for tax68526,811Form 4
2026-07-22TYSOE RONALD WdirectorOption exercise5,04827,496Form 4
2026-07-22TYSOE RONALD WdirectorOption exercise5,0480Form 4
2026-07-16Barstad Melanie W.directorWithheld for tax1,40635,734Form 4
2026-07-16Barstad Melanie W.directorOption exercise10,54837,140Form 4
2026-07-16Barstad Melanie W.directorOption exercise10,5480Form 4
2026-07-01Garula ScottofficerWithheld for tax24997,758Form 4
2026-06-15TYSOE RONALD WdirectorAward / grant10038,839Form 4
2026-06-15Coletti Robert E.directorAward / grant2911,247Form 4
2026-06-15CARNAHAN KAREN LdirectorAward / grant176,682Form 4
2026-06-15Barstad Melanie W.directorAward / grant124,586Form 4
2026-04-20TYSOE RONALD WdirectorWithheld for tax83427,114Form 4
2026-04-20TYSOE RONALD WdirectorOption exercise5,50027,948Form 4
2026-04-20TYSOE RONALD WdirectorOption exercise5,5005,048Form 4
2026-04-14Barstad Melanie W.directorAward / grant1814,574Form 4
2026-04-14CARNAHAN KAREN LdirectorAward / grant1636,665Form 4
2026-04-14Coletti Robert E.directorAward / grant14211,218Form 4
2026-04-09Coletti Robert E.directorOption exercise10,54826,744Form 4
2026-04-09Coletti Robert E.directorOption exercise1,99616,196Form 4
2026-04-09Coletti Robert E.directorOption exercise1,9960Form 4
2026-04-09Coletti Robert E.directorOption exercise10,5480Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-10-222025-09-11$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.