CSTMConstellium SEBasic Materials · Aluminumas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $25.93 · now $25.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CSTM has typically landed between $21.71 and $30.71 — a range of −16.3% to +18.4% from the issuance price $25.93.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,328 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-05-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($25.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CSTM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $25.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$21.71worst · -16.3%$30.71best · +18.4%
  • now $25.93 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.27 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.33–$28.22
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.71–$30.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,328 windows spanning 2013-05-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−70.9%−70.9%+1.5%
2020-02-21−70.3%−71.4%+0.0%
2020-02-18−66.8%−66.8%+13.5%
3 best
2015-10-29+140.2%+0.0%+142.1%
2015-10-30+129.7%+0.0%+135.0%
2015-10-28+117.5%−7.3%+124.3%

3,328 overlapping windows · 2013-05-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
54%
+5.2%
n=13
Feb
85%
+5.7%
n=13
Mar
31%
−6.7%
n=13
Apr
69%
+7.4%
n=13
May
62%
+0.7%
n=13
Jun
50%
−0.5%
n=14
Jul
64%
+6.8%
n=14
Aug
36%
+0.0%
n=14
Sep
36%
−3.4%
n=14
Oct
38%
−9.2%
n=13
Nov
69%
+16.7%
n=13
Dec
54%
−0.2%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$36$142026-08-03: 1 insider purchase, $41K — Deslarzes Jean-Christophe2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $280K — Ormerod John2026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $363K — Becker Marcus2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $158K — Jarrett Martin2026-05-14: 1 insider purchase, $85K — Soultz Bradley Lee2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $34K — Piquier Ludovic2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $902K — Brun Nicolas2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $168K — Corre Stephane2026-05-05: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Guo Jack Q., Brandjes Michiel2026-05-01: 3 insider sales, $3.3M — Hoffmann Philippe, Jurkovic Philip Ryan, Corre Stephane2026-05-01: 1 insider purchase, $41K — Deslarzes Jean-Christophe2026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $251K — Becker Marcus2026-03-10: 6 insider sales, $2.2M — Guo Jack Q., Jurkovic Philip Ryan, Hoffmann Philippe, Joerg Ingrid …2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $437K — Brun Nicolas2026-03-09: 3 insider purchases, $0 — Hoffmann Philippe, Becker Marcus, Corre Stephane2026-03-04: 2 insider sales, $2.1M — Hoffmann Philippe …2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $41K — Deslarzes Jean-Christophe2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $74K — Corre Stephane2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $258K — Boccon-Gibod Isabelle2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $82K — Corre Stephane2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $38K — Walters Stephen Charles2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $398K — Becker Marcus2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $850K2026-03: 4 open-market purchases, $41K2026-03: 10 open-market sales, $5.0M2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $126K2026-05: 10 open-market sales, $6.1M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $280K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $41K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Deslarzes Jean-Christophe — Purchase on 2026-08-03, filed same daydirector Ormerod John — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Becker Marcus — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Jarrett Martin — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Soultz Bradley Lee — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Piquier Ludovic — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brun Nicolas — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Corre Stephane — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Guo Jack Q. — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Brandjes Michiel — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Philippe — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Jurkovic Philip Ryan — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Corre Stephane — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Deslarzes Jean-Christophe — Purchase on 2026-05-01, filed same dayofficer Becker Marcus — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Guo Jack Q. — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jurkovic Philip Ryan — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Philippe — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Joerg Ingrid — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Corre Stephane — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Becker Marcus — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brun Nicolas — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Philippe — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Becker Marcus — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Corre Stephane — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Philippe — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hoffmann Philippe — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Deslarzes Jean-Christophe — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 15 days after the tradeofficer Corre Stephane — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Boccon-Gibod Isabelle — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Corre Stephane — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Walters Stephen Charles — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Becker Marcus — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Deslarzes Jean-ChristophedirectorPurchase1,490 @ $27.24$41K+3.5% of holding−5.9%not yet — horizon still open43,515Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-04Ormerod JohndirectorSale8,000 @ $35.01$280K−24.3% of holding−16.5%not yet — horizon still open24,873Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Becker MarcusofficerSale10,391 @ $34.93$363K−38.2% of holding−7.7%not yet — horizon still open16,784Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14Jarrett MartinofficerSale4,716 @ $33.46$158K−23.5% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open15,375Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-14Soultz Bradley LeedirectorPurchase2,500 @ $33.84$85Kownership Δ n/a+2.7%not yet — horizon still open2,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-12Piquier LudovicofficerSale1,000 @ $33.57$34K−0.4% of holding+4.4%not yet — horizon still open241,713Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Brun NicolasofficerSale26,661 @ $33.85$902K−20.3% of holding−2.7%not yet — horizon still open104,891Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Corre StephaneofficerSale5,000 @ $33.52$168K−7.4% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open62,313Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05Guo Jack Q.officerSale25,201 @ $32.62$822K−12.0% of holding+5.1%not yet — horizon still open185,368Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-05Brandjes MichieldirectorSale10,400 @ $31.25$325K−20.0% of holding+5.1%not yet — horizon still open41,600Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01Hoffmann PhilippeofficerSale50,000 @ $31.92$1.6M−25.8% of holding+7.3%not yet — horizon still open144,153Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-01Jurkovic Philip RyanofficerSale48,784 @ $32.01$1.6M−22.1% of holding+7.3%not yet — horizon still open172,149Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01Corre StephaneofficerSale5,000 @ $32.04$160K−6.9% of holding+7.3%not yet — horizon still open67,313Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-01Deslarzes Jean-ChristophedirectorPurchase1,325 @ $31.13$41K+3.3% of holding+7.3%not yet — horizon still open42,025Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16Becker MarcusofficerSale10,000 @ $25.09$251K−26.9% of holding+12.2%−12.8%27,175Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Guo Jack Q.officerSale41,717 @ $25.87$1.1M−17.9% of holding+14.9%−6.5%190,879Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Jurkovic Philip RyanofficerSale29,900 @ $25.87$774K−12.4% of holding+14.9%−6.5%210,723Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Hoffmann PhilippeofficerSale4,728 @ $25.87$122K−2.5% of holding+14.9%−6.5%182,120Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Joerg IngriddirectorSale4,614 @ $25.87$119K−1.2% of holding+14.9%−6.5%378,090Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Corre StephaneofficerSale1,500 @ $25.89$39K−2.3% of holding+14.9%−6.5%65,020Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Becker MarcusofficerSale1,113 @ $25.87$29K−3.2% of holding+14.9%−6.5%33,237Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Brun NicolasofficerSale17,701 @ $24.67$437K−14.6% of holding+14.7%−4.4%103,466Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Hoffmann PhilippeofficerPurchase71,132 @ $0.00$0+61.5% of holding+14.7%−4.4%186,848Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Becker MarcusofficerPurchase14,592 @ $0.00$0+73.9% of holding+14.7%−4.4%34,350Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Corre StephaneofficerPurchase8,026 @ $0.00$0+13.7% of holding+14.7%−4.4%66,520Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04Hoffmann PhilippeofficerSale50,000 @ $26.03$1.3M−36.9% of holding+7.7%−12.4%85,425Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04Hoffmann PhilippeofficerSale30,000 @ $27.14$814K−35.1% of holding+7.7%−12.4%55,425Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Deslarzes Jean-ChristophedirectorPurchase1,665 @ $24.77$41K+4.3% of holding−0.7%−10.9%40,700Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade
2026-02-27Corre StephaneofficerSale3,000 @ $24.69$74K−6.3% of holding+0.3%−4.3%44,444Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26Boccon-Gibod IsabelledirectorSale10,000 @ $25.77$258K−30.3% of holding−2.2%−6.8%23,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25Corre StephaneofficerSale3,200 @ $25.71$82K−6.3% of holding−1.2%−6.5%47,444Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Walters Stephen CharlesofficerSale1,500 @ $25.39$38K−100.0% of holding+1.1%−7.6%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20Becker MarcusofficerSale15,570 @ $25.58$398K−100.0% of holding−1.6%−5.4%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

19 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-10Joerg IngriddirectorWithheld for tax2,984406,464Form 4
2026-03-12Joerg IngriddirectorAward / grant31,358409,448Form 4
2026-03-12Corre StephaneofficerAward / grant7,29372,313Form 4
2026-03-12Walters Stephen CharlesofficerAward / grant5,83425,068Form 4
2026-03-12Weiler WiebkedirectorAward / grant625625Form 4
2026-03-12Guo Jack Q.officerAward / grant19,690210,569Form 4
2026-03-12Piquier LudovicofficerAward / grant5,469242,713Form 4
2026-03-12Brun NicolasofficerAward / grant4,376131,552Form 4
2026-03-12Becker MarcusofficerAward / grant3,93837,175Form 4
2026-03-12Jurkovic Philip RyanofficerAward / grant10,210220,933Form 4
2026-03-12Perkins Matthew B.officerAward / grant10,21033,212Form 4
2026-03-12Schild NiklausofficerAward / grant3,35538,703Form 4
2026-03-12Hoffmann PhilippeofficerAward / grant12,033194,153Form 4
2026-03-09Jurkovic Philip RyanofficerAward / grant59,276240,623Form 4
2026-03-09Piquier LudovicofficerAward / grant30,350237,244Form 4
2026-03-09Schild NiklausofficerAward / grant5,10635,348Form 4
2026-03-09Joerg IngriddirectorAward / grant71,132382,704Form 4
2026-03-09Guo Jack Q.officerAward / grant75,874232,596Form 4
2026-03-09Brun NicolasofficerAward / grant23,710127,176Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.