Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.48 · now $35.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CSTL has typically landed between $26.14 and $46.29 — a range of −26.3% to +30.5% from the issuance price $35.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,775 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-07-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CSTL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $35.48 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.35 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.77–$39.94
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.14–$46.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,775 windows spanning 2019-07-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-05-23 | −50.7% | −54.8% | +0.7% |
| 2023-05-24 | −50.4% | −54.9% | +0.7% |
| 2022-03-29 | −49.9% | −51.1% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-10-22 | +70.5% | −5.6% | +72.8% |
| 2019-10-23 | +70.5% | +0.0% | +83.0% |
| 2022-06-17 | +69.2% | +0.0% | +69.2% |
1,775 overlapping windows · 2019-07-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
71%
+2.8%
n=7
Feb
29%
−9.4%
n=7
Mar
29%
−2.7%
n=7
Apr
43%
−7.3%
n=7
May
43%
−0.8%
n=7
Jun
43%
+1.4%
n=7
Jul
71%
+7.2%
n=7
Aug
100%
+23.9%
n=8
Sep
25%
−7.9%
n=8
Oct
43%
+5.4%
n=7
Nov
57%
+6.8%
n=7
Dec
57%
+9.4%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Juvenal Tobin W | officer | Sale | 3,294 @ $35.14 | $116K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 58,584 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Juvenal Tobin W | officer | Sale | 3,306 @ $32.32 | $107K | −5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 61,878 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 8,361 @ $32.00 | $268K | −27.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,702 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 3,124 @ $32.00 | $100K | −17.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,517 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 2,656 @ $32.00 | $85K | −17.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,339 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 223 @ $32.78 | $7K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 83 @ $32.78 | $3K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,434 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 71 @ $32.78 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,268 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Oelschlager Kristen M | officer | Sale | 3,952 @ $33.36 | $132K | −22.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Oelschlager Kristen M | officer | Sale | 200 @ $34.02 | $7K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,356 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Juvenal Tobin W | officer | Sale | 1,730 @ $32.81 | $57K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 65,184 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 11,472 @ $33.14 | $380K | −33.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,435 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 2,505 @ $33.14 | $83K | −12.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,850 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 2,129 @ $33.14 | $71K | −12.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,172 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 956 @ $33.88 | $32K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 257 @ $33.14 | $9K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,277 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 209 @ $33.88 | $7K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,641 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 177 @ $33.88 | $6K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,995 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 21 @ $33.88 | $711 | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,256 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Juvenal Tobin W | officer | Sale | 9,050 @ $35.04 | $317K | −11.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 66,914 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Oelschlager Kristen M | officer | Sale | 7,161 @ $34.26 | $245K | −8.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Oelschlager Kristen M | officer | Sale | 5,223 @ $34.64 | $181K | −6.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 72,649 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Oelschlager Kristen M | officer | Sale | 12,218 @ $33.69 | $412K | −12.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 85,033 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Juvenal Tobin W | officer | Sale | 1,730 @ $29.59 | $51K | −2.2% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Stokes Frank | director | Sale | 24,908 @ $29.77 | $742K | −41.5% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,177 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 2,714 @ $30.02 | $81K | −11.8% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,355 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 2,306 @ $30.02 | $69K | −11.8% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,301 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $30.02 | $33K | −4.9% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 278 @ $30.02 | $8K | −2.4% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,534 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 2,546 @ $30.68 | $78K | −10.6% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 556 @ $30.68 | $17K | −2.4% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,069 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 473 @ $30.68 | $15K | −2.4% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,607 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 11,935 @ $31.34 | $374K | −35.7% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 8,421 @ $30.79 | $259K | −20.1% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 4,782 @ $31.34 | $150K | −16.8% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 4,063 @ $31.34 | $127K | −16.8% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 3,374 @ $30.79 | $104K | −10.6% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 2,866 @ $30.79 | $88K | −10.6% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,143 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 10,664 @ $30.35 | $324K | −33.2% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Oelschlager Kristen M | officer | Sale | 4,486 @ $30.00 | $135K | −23.8% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,388 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 4,232 @ $30.35 | $128K | −11.8% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 3,597 @ $30.35 | $109K | −11.8% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,009 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Oelschlager Kristen M | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $29.12 | $87K | −13.7% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,874 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Juvenal Tobin W | officer | Sale | 1,730 @ $28.25 | $49K | −2.1% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Oelschlager Kristen M | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $30.62 | $34K | −7.6% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Juvenal Tobin W | officer | Sale | 8,149 @ $28.84 | $235K | −8.3% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,886 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Juvenal Tobin W | officer | Sale | 7,270 @ $29.58 | $215K | −8.1% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,616 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 6,480 @ $30.15 | $195K | −23.2% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 1,983 @ $30.15 | $60K | −5.2% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,013 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Juvenal Tobin W | officer | Sale | 1,891 @ $30.26 | $57K | −2.3% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,725 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 1,690 @ $30.15 | $51K | −5.2% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,606 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 5,982 @ $24.13 | $144K | −21.6% of holding | +39.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,711 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 1,307 @ $24.13 | $32K | −3.3% of holding | +39.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,046 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 1,110 @ $24.13 | $27K | −3.3% of holding | +39.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 268 @ $24.13 | $6K | −2.2% of holding | +39.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,822 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 232 @ $25.06 | $6K | −1.1% of holding | +39.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 50 @ $25.06 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | +39.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,996 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 43 @ $25.06 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | +39.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 10 @ $25.06 | $251 | −0.1% of holding | +39.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,812 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Sale | 1,357 @ $22.92 | $31K | −3.3% of holding | +33.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
149 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 8,584 | 30,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 8,584 | 16,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Oelschlager Kristen M | officer | Option exercise | 4,152 | 17,508 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Oelschlager Kristen M | officer | Option exercise | 4,152 | 12,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 12,428 | 33,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 12,428 | 25,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 1,100 | 22,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 1,100 | 37,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 2,546 | 24,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 2,546 | 38,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 20,356 | 41,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 20,356 | 41,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 10,664 | 32,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 10,664 | 61,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,480 | 27,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,480 | 72,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,214 | 27,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,214 | 78,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 550 | 22,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 550 | 85,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,214 | 27,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,214 | 85,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 550 | 22,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 550 | 91,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,010 | 27,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 204 | 21,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 6,010 | 92,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | MAETZOLD DEREK J | director | Option exercise | 204 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Caple Kim | director | Award / grant | 11,766 | 11,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BRADBURY DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 11,766 | 11,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Cole G Bradley | director | Award / grant | 11,766 | 11,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Cotton Rodney | director | Award / grant | 11,766 | 11,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Harrison Miles | director | Award / grant | 11,766 | 11,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Goldberg Ellen | director | Award / grant | 11,766 | 11,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Olson Tiffany | director | Award / grant | 11,766 | 11,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Goldberg Ellen | director | Option exercise | 13,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Cotton Rodney | director | Option exercise | 13,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Olson Tiffany | director | Option exercise | 13,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Cole G Bradley | director | Option exercise | 13,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Harrison Miles | director | Option exercise | 13,667 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.