Issued 2026-09-16 at $30.36 · now $30.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CSGP has typically landed between $25.86 and $34.50 — a range of −14.8% to +13.6% from the issuance price $30.36.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($30.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CSGP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $30.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $30.36 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $29.91 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.17–$31.66
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.86–$34.5
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −39.8% | −39.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −38.1% | −38.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −35.5% | −35.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +31.2% | −3.2% | +31.2% |
| 2009-03-09 | +30.6% | +0.0% | +35.5% |
| 2022-07-14 | +29.5% | +0.0% | +29.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$24.32
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$1.91
- Analyst target · range $26.00–$67.00$44.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$30.36
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Sale | 4,788 @ $30.78 | $147K | −20.3% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,822 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Hill John W | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $30.21 | $106K | −13.2% of holding | +4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,993 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | FLORANCE ANDREW C | director | Purchase | 83,300 @ $29.89 | $2.5M | +4.8% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,806,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | FLORANCE ANDREW C | director | Purchase | 68,330 @ $35.17 | $2.4M | +4.1% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,719,765 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | FLORANCE ANDREW C | director | Purchase | 3,100 @ $35.82 | $111K | +0.2% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,722,865 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Sams Louise S | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $48.36 | $48K | +5.2% of holding | −16.7% | −51.3% | 20,409 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | SAINT FREDERICK G. | officer | Purchase | 20,000 @ $45.33 | $907K | +7.7% of holding | −5.7% | −41.3% | 279,851 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Glaser Rachel C | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $44.94 | $45K | +31.7% of holding | −5.7% | −41.3% | 4,157 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | FLORANCE ANDREW C | director | Purchase | 55,720 @ $44.52 | $2.5M | +3.6% of holding | −0.8% | −40.6% | 1,586,866 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Hill John W | director | Sale | 2,250 @ $68.68 | $155K | −11.0% of holding | −8.3% | −62.1% | 18,231 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Sale | 1,841 @ $68.79 | $127K | −7.3% of holding | −8.3% | −62.1% | 23,211 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | SAINT FREDERICK G. | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $90.33 | $2.3M | −7.9% of holding | −9.3% | −56.4% | 293,103 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | SAINT FREDERICK G. | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $93.23 | $2.3M | −7.3% of holding | −5.6% | −38.9% | 319,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Sale | 2,033 @ $92.85 | $189K | −7.3% of holding | −5.6% | −38.9% | 25,771 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | SAINT FREDERICK G. | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $81.10 | $2.0M | −6.8% of holding | +0.5% | −32.0% | 344,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Sale | 1,749 @ $79.90 | $140K | −5.6% of holding | +2.8% | −6.4% | 29,456 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | Hill John W | director | Sale | 2,735 @ $76.76 | $210K | −13.5% of holding | −6.1% | +6.5% | 17,499 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-11 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Sale | 1,310 @ $76.85 | $101K | −4.7% of holding | +0.8% | +1.0% | 26,485 | Form 4 · filed 123 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-31 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $78.20 | $94K | −4.1% of holding | −2.5% | −11.8% | 27,795 | Form 4 · filed 226 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
115 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | SAINT FREDERICK G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,436 | 278,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,077 | 23,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Award / grant | 26,078 | 26,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Rossmann Robin Jack | officer | Award / grant | 34,771 | 34,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | LOWN CHRISTIAN M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,597 | 129,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | BERISFORD JOHN L | director | Award / grant | 8,262 | 11,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Hill John W | director | Award / grant | 8,262 | 26,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Musslewhite Robert W | director | Award / grant | 8,262 | 26,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Glaser Rachel C | director | Award / grant | 8,262 | 12,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | McCarthy Christine M | director | Award / grant | 8,262 | 11,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Brunner Angelique G. | director | Award / grant | 8,262 | 18,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Sams Louise S | director | Award / grant | 8,262 | 28,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Withheld for tax | 461 | 24,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | SIMURO FRANK | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,107 | 414,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Ruggles Lisa | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,977 | 174,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | DESMARAIS MICHAEL J | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,873 | 87,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,194 | 25,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Boxer Gene | officer | Withheld for tax | 428 | 95,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | FLORANCE ANDREW C | director | Award / grant | 124,162 | 1,651,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Boxer Gene | officer | Award / grant | 21,920 | 95,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | LOWN CHRISTIAN M. | officer | Award / grant | 12,268 | 135,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Award / grant | 4,374 | 26,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Boxer Gene | officer | Award / grant | 21,920 | 95,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | DESMARAIS MICHAEL J | officer | Award / grant | 17,676 | 90,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Award / grant | 4,374 | 26,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | DESMARAIS MICHAEL J | officer | Award / grant | 17,676 | 90,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | FLORANCE ANDREW C | director | Award / grant | 124,162 | 1,651,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | LOWN CHRISTIAN M. | officer | Award / grant | 12,268 | 135,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | FLORANCE ANDREW C | director | Withheld for tax | 59,593 | 1,527,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | SIMURO FRANK | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,702 | 425,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | SAINT FREDERICK G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,096 | 259,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Ruggles Lisa | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,931 | 177,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | LOWN CHRISTIAN M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,175 | 122,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | DESMARAIS MICHAEL J | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,353 | 72,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Boxer Gene | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,547 | 74,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Cann Cynthia Cammett | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,385 | 21,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Ruggles Lisa | officer | Award / grant | 28,197 | 28,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Boxer Gene | officer | Award / grant | 26,888 | 26,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | SIMURO FRANK | officer | Award / grant | 52,869 | 52,869 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | LOWN CHRISTIAN M. | officer | Award / grant | 39,652 | 39,652 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-28 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.