Issued 2026-09-25 at $106.70 · now $106.70 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, CSCO has typically landed between $96.62 and $118.57 — a range of −9.4% to +11.1% from the issuance price $106.70.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($106.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CSCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $106.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $106.7 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $108.17 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $103.56–$112.78
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $96.62–$118.57
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −32.5% | −32.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −32.4% | −32.4% | +1.6% |
| 2008-09-25 | −30.5% | −30.5% | +1.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-15 | +40.3% | +0.0% | +40.3% |
| 2026-04-16 | +39.9% | +0.0% | +39.9% |
| 2026-05-01 | +39.4% | −0.2% | +39.4% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$48.21
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$102.61
- Analyst target · range $100.00–$137.00$130.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$106.70
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Sale | 680 @ $110.18 | $75K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 163,337 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Sale | 312 @ $110.18 | $34K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 127,661 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 1,795 @ $108.87 | $195K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 165,778 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Fink Nichlas A | officer | Sale | 2,274 @ $109.36 | $249K | −6.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 31,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Sale | 3,605 @ $111.75 | $403K | −2.7% of holding | +0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Sale | 2,227 @ $111.00 | $247K | −1.7% of holding | +0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 131,987 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Robbins Charles | director | Sale | 14,829 @ $111.56 | $1.7M | −2.4% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 605,709 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Sale | 4,870 @ $111.58 | $543K | −2.1% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 231,593 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Sale | 4,487 @ $111.60 | $501K | −2.6% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,816 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 3,788 @ $111.60 | $423K | −2.2% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,627 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Robbins Charles | director | Sale | 3,800 @ $110.59 | $420K | −0.6% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 620,538 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Sale | 2,760 @ $112.46 | $310K | −1.6% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 165,276 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Robbins Charles | director | Sale | 2,699 @ $112.50 | $304K | −0.4% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 603,010 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $110.68 | $144K | −0.7% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,303 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $110.64 | $144K | −0.5% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,463 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Sale | 900 @ $112.61 | $101K | −0.4% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,693 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 904 @ $110.60 | $100K | −0.5% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,415 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Sale | 700 @ $112.63 | $79K | −0.4% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,116 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 500 @ $112.52 | $56K | −0.3% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,127 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Robbins Charles | director | Sale | 300 @ $113.49 | $34K | −0.0% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 602,710 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Sale | 100 @ $113.51 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,593 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Sale | 5,219 @ $119.69 | $625K | −3.5% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 142,765 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Sale | 1,908 @ $120.51 | $230K | −1.3% of holding | −5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 140,857 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 2,546 @ $121.75 | $310K | −1.4% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,717 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $118.36 | $189K | −0.9% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,214 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Sale | 1,407 @ $121.77 | $171K | −0.8% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,827 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $120.44 | $132K | −0.6% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 180,263 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $117.60 | $129K | −0.6% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,814 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 851 @ $119.44 | $102K | −0.5% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,363 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Sale | 700 @ $120.51 | $84K | −0.4% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,234 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Sale | 400 @ $119.59 | $48K | −0.2% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,934 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 200 @ $122.39 | $24K | −0.1% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,517 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Sale | 100 @ $122.44 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | −5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,727 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Robbins Charles | director | Sale | 12,862 @ $120.37 | $1.5M | −2.0% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 637,085 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Robbins Charles | director | Sale | 8,038 @ $119.58 | $961K | −1.2% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 649,947 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Robbins Charles | director | Sale | 500 @ $118.48 | $59K | −0.1% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 657,985 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Sale | 3,469 @ $117.95 | $409K | −1.4% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 246,737 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Sale | 3,149 @ $116.87 | $368K | −1.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 250,206 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Sale | 2,842 @ $117.24 | $333K | −1.6% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,567 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Sale | 2,761 @ $114.61 | $316K | −1.5% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 180,877 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Sale | 2,344 @ $118.10 | $277K | −1.3% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,223 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 2,005 @ $117.34 | $235K | −1.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,025 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 1,712 @ $118.16 | $202K | −0.9% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,313 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 1,495 @ $116.65 | $174K | −0.8% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,030 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $116.42 | $128K | −0.6% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,409 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Sale | 351 @ $115.89 | $41K | −0.1% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,355 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 300 @ $115.08 | $35K | −0.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 196,525 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Sale | 300 @ $114.97 | $34K | −0.2% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,509 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Sale | 200 @ $114.62 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,706 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 2,501 @ $78.26 | $196K | −1.2% of holding | +7.6% | +25.3% | 200,041 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Patterson Mark | officer | Sale | 2,391 @ $77.68 | $186K | −1.2% of holding | +7.6% | +25.3% | 202,542 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Sale | 3,132 @ $79.74 | $250K | −1.6% of holding | +4.1% | +27.8% | 188,613 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Sale | 7,981 @ $79.50 | $635K | −4.1% of holding | +2.3% | +24.4% | 187,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Sale | 1,744 @ $77.07 | $134K | −1.1% of holding | +3.2% | +30.2% | 156,693 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Wong Maria Victoria | officer | Sale | 551 @ $77.54 | $43K | −1.9% of holding | +5.1% | +26.2% | 27,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Wong Maria Victoria | officer | Sale | 2,179 @ $77.74 | $169K | −7.0% of holding | +8.9% | +31.5% | 28,807 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-19 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Sale | 8,433 @ $78.50 | $662K | −4.9% of holding | +3.8% | +28.8% | 161,953 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $79.05 | $142K | −1.1% of holding | +3.8% | +28.8% | 160,153 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Robbins Charles | director | Sale | 11,345 @ $76.92 | $873K | −1.7% of holding | +4.8% | +34.3% | 671,095 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Sale | 6,548 @ $76.92 | $504K | −2.4% of holding | +4.8% | +34.3% | 262,776 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
153 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Award / grant | 55,690 | 222,806 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Award / grant | 55,690 | 183,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Award / grant | 139,225 | 369,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Award / grant | 69,613 | 232,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Fink Nichlas A | officer | Award / grant | 7,826 | 39,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Patterson Mark | officer | Award / grant | 92,817 | 258,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Robbins Charles | director | Award / grant | 167,069 | 769,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | JOHNSON KRISTINA M | director | Award / grant | 417 | 63,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Tessel Marianna | director | Award / grant | 274 | 37,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Weil Kevin | director | Award / grant | 274 | 7,793 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Patterson Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,553 | 167,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,260 | 164,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Withheld for tax | 409 | 127,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Robbins Charles | director | Withheld for tax | 15,656 | 624,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Withheld for tax | 9,400 | 237,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Withheld for tax | 7,646 | 134,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Withheld for tax | 4,209 | 173,603 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Patterson Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,066 | 174,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,146 | 168,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fink Nichlas A | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,205 | 33,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,259 | 170,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | JOHNSON KRISTINA M | director | Award / grant | 351 | 62,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Weil Kevin | director | Award / grant | 251 | 7,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Tessel Marianna | director | Award / grant | 251 | 37,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Patterson Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,399 | 184,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,543 | 175,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,715 | 147,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Fink Nichlas A | officer | Award / grant | 4,501 | 34,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Robbins Charles | director | Withheld for tax | 15,747 | 658,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Patel Jeetendra I | director | Withheld for tax | 9,399 | 253,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Subaiya Thimaya K. | director | Withheld for tax | 7,629 | 149,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Stahlkopf Deborah L | director | Withheld for tax | 4,069 | 183,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Patterson Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,640 | 196,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,146 | 183,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Wong Maria Victoria | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,268 | 26,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tuszik Oliver | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,260 | 186,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Shimer Peter A | director | Award / grant | 2,333 | 2,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Tessel Marianna | director | Award / grant | 383 | 37,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | JOHNSON KRISTINA M | director | Award / grant | 383 | 62,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Weil Kevin | director | Award / grant | 383 | 7,206 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-07-09 | 2026-06-12 | $1–15K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-07-09 | 2026-06-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | purchase | 2026-04-21 | 2026-03-19 | $15–50K |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | purchase | 2026-04-21 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $50–100K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.