Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.95 · now $4.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CSBR has typically landed between $3.99 and $6.22 — a range of −19.4% to +25.6% from the issuance price $4.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,904 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-02-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CSBR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.85 (-2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.48–$5.22
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.99–$6.22
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2007-12-24 | −52.9% | −52.9% | +0.0% |
| 2011-02-18 | −52.6% | −52.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −50.0% | −60.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2007-09-25 | +296.2% | +0.0% | +296.2% |
| 2007-09-24 | +278.4% | +0.0% | +278.4% |
| 2007-09-26 | +267.9% | +0.0% | +296.2% |
4,904 overlapping windows · 2007-02-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
18 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-05 | TOBIN SCOTT R | director | Award / grant | 25,460 | 25,460 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | ACKERMAN JOEL | director | Award / grant | 21,216 | 21,216 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | SIDRANSKY DAVID | director | Award / grant | 21,216 | 21,216 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Mendelson Daniel Newman | director | Award / grant | 13,790 | 13,790 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Breitfeld Philip P. | director | Award / grant | 13,790 | 13,790 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-30 | ACKERMAN JOEL | director | Option exercise | 94,405 | 1,056,539 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-30 | ACKERMAN JOEL | director | Option exercise | 94,405 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-16 | Brainin Robert Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 225,000 | 299,163 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-16 | Brainin Robert Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 574,163 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-16 | Brainin Robert Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 674,163 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-16 | Brainin Robert Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 774,163 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-16 | Brainin Robert Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 62,500 | 361,663 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-16 | Brainin Robert Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 62,500 | 424,163 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-25 | Breitfeld Philip P. | director | Other acquisition | 4,150 | 5,717 | Form 4 |
| 2024-11-12 | Brainin Robert Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 23,030 | 74,163 | Form 4 |
| 2023-11-03 | Brainin Robert Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 19,070 | 51,133 | Form 4 |
| 2022-11-01 | Brainin Robert Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 14,130 | 32,063 | Form 4 |
| 2021-11-05 | Brainin Robert Lawrence | director | Award / grant | 9,901 | 17,933 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.