Issued 2026-09-16 at $83.35 · now $83.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRWV has typically landed between $55.74 and $133.87 — a range of −33.1% to +60.6% from the issuance price $83.35.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
348 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-03-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($83.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRWV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $83.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $83.35 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $82.32 (-1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $65.33–$99.31
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.74–$133.87
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 348 windows spanning 2025-03-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-29 | −47.7% | −50.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-27 | −47.6% | −49.1% | +2.8% |
| 2025-10-16 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-05 | +219.7% | +0.0% | +219.7% |
| 2025-05-09 | +201.5% | +0.0% | +217.5% |
| 2025-04-25 | +198.4% | −0.6% | +198.4% |
348 overlapping windows · 2025-03-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+30.1%
n=1
Feb
0%
−14.6%
n=1
Mar
0%
−2.6%
n=1
Apr
100%
+27.7%
n=2
May
50%
+83.8%
n=2
Jun
50%
+18.7%
n=2
Jul
0%
−29.0%
n=2
Aug
50%
+4.3%
n=2
Sep
50%
+15.5%
n=2
Oct
0%
−2.3%
n=1
Nov
0%
−45.3%
n=1
Dec
0%
−2.1%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Sale | 63,408 @ $83.64 | $5.3M | −24.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 191,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Sale | 3,168 @ $84.88 | $269K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 188,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 55,614 @ $102.96 | $5.7M | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,097,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Sale | 55,945 @ $93.54 | $5.2M | −25.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 164,868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Sale | 41,555 @ $94.47 | $3.9M | −25.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 123,313 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 39,261 @ $99.85 | $3.9M | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,189,815 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 29,945 @ $102.96 | $3.1M | −84.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,538 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 26,286 @ $95.79 | $2.5M | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,247,875 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 21,139 @ $99.85 | $2.1M | −27.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 55,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 20,926 @ $100.85 | $2.1M | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,168,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 15,861 @ $101.97 | $1.6M | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,153,028 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 14,154 @ $95.79 | $1.4M | −14.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 86,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Goldberg Chen | officer | Sale | 13,042 @ $92.97 | $1.2M | −17.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 59,932 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 11,274 @ $100.85 | $1.1M | −20.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 10,155 @ $103.72 | $1.1M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,087,259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Goldberg Chen | officer | Sale | 9,382 @ $100.00 | $938K | −15.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 8,539 @ $101.97 | $871K | −19.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 8,808 @ $94.60 | $833K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,274,161 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 8,464 @ $96.57 | $817K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,239,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 7,995 @ $98.75 | $790K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,229,076 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 5,468 @ $103.72 | $567K | −98.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 70 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 4,742 @ $94.60 | $449K | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 100,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 4,556 @ $96.57 | $440K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 82,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 4,305 @ $98.75 | $425K | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,435 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 4,160 @ $93.35 | $388K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,282,969 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 2,340 @ $98.02 | $229K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,237,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 2,240 @ $93.35 | $209K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 105,452 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 1,260 @ $98.02 | $124K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 80,740 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 130 @ $104.44 | $14K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,087,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 70 @ $104.44 | $7K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 130,609 @ $81.85 | $10.7M | −9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,293,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Sale | 94,307 @ $81.85 | $7.7M | −42.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 129,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 70,329 @ $81.85 | $5.8M | −95.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,271 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 63,315 @ $81.20 | $5.1M | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,423,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Sale | 55,506 @ $81.16 | $4.5M | −19.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 223,807 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 34,092 @ $81.20 | $2.8M | −31.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 73,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Sale | 6,187 @ $82.50 | $510K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 123,313 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 6,076 @ $82.54 | $502K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,287,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 3,271 @ $82.54 | $270K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Sale | 1,144 @ $88.18 | $101K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 123,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Sale | 724 @ $87.39 | $63K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 124,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Sale | 232 @ $89.24 | $21K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 123,313 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 134,067 @ $88.31 | $11.8M | −7.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,553,062 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 72,186 @ $88.31 | $6.4M | −67.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,506 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 62,293 @ $89.17 | $5.6M | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,490,769 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 33,546 @ $89.17 | $3.0M | −94.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,960 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Sale | 3,909 @ $88.37 | $345K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 134,196 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 3,640 @ $89.93 | $327K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,487,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Sale | 1,960 @ $89.93 | $176K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $89.24 | $134K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 132,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Sale | 100 @ $90.04 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 132,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McBee Brannin | officer | Sale | 57,544 @ $86.00 | $4.9M | −13.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 363,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McBee Brannin | officer | Sale | 36,171 @ $86.48 | $3.1M | −9.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 327,691 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McBee Brannin | officer | Sale | 25,813 @ $83.93 | $2.2M | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 445,878 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McBee Brannin | officer | Sale | 24,472 @ $84.63 | $2.1M | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 421,406 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McBee Brannin | officer | Sale | 15,988 @ $86.00 | $1.4M | −61.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,046 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McBee Brannin | officer | Sale | 10,046 @ $86.48 | $869K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McBee Brannin | officer | Sale | 9,993 @ $86.00 | $859K | −61.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McBee Brannin | officer | Sale | 9,986 @ $86.00 | $859K | −61.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,285 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McBee Brannin | officer | Sale | 7,171 @ $83.93 | $602K | −17.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 32,829 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
213 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | WHITMAN MARGARET C | director | Option exercise | 1,200 | 7,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | WHITMAN MARGARET C | director | Option exercise | 1,200 | 7,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Option exercise | 122,340 | 254,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Option exercise | 122,340 | 254,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Option exercise | 122,340 | 734,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Option exercise | 122,340 | 734,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Option exercise | 122,340 | 734,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Agrawal Nitin | officer | Option exercise | 122,340 | 254,936 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Option exercise | 97,500 | 220,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Option exercise | 97,500 | 579,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Option exercise | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Option exercise | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Option exercise | 107,692 | 22,372,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Option exercise | 107,692 | 22,372,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Option exercise | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Option exercise | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Option exercise | 107,692 | 22,372,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Intrator Michael N | director | Option exercise | 107,692 | 22,372,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Option exercise | 156,000 | 279,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McVeety Kristen J | officer | Option exercise | 156,000 | 677,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 22,480,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 22,480,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 22,480,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 22,480,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 22,587,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 22,587,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 22,587,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 22,587,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 22,587,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 107,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Intrator Michael N | director | Conversion | 107,692 | 22,587,740 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.