Issued 2026-09-25 at $252.13 · now $252.13 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, CRWD has typically landed between $201.34 and $310.29 — a range of −20.1% to +23.1% from the issuance price $252.13.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,812 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-06-12 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($252.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRWD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $252.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $252.13 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $262.89 (+4.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $238.81–$286.96
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $201.34–$310.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,812 windows spanning 2019-06-12 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −49.5% | −49.5% | +1.1% |
| 2024-07-03 | −43.7% | −43.7% | +0.9% |
| 2024-07-05 | −43.0% | −44.1% | +0.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-16 | +87.4% | +0.0% | +87.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | +75.5% | +0.0% | +75.5% |
| 2026-05-01 | +68.8% | +0.0% | +71.7% |
1,812 overlapping windows · 2019-06-12 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$186.6B
market cap
$-0.05
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-01
next earnings
Revenue$4.8B
'21'26
Net income−$163M
'21'26
Free cash flow$1.3B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr-3.4%
'21'26
ROE · by yr-3.7%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.19
'21'26
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$5.70
- Analyst target · range $103.25–$237.00$186.25
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$252.13
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
71%
+5.5%
n=7
Feb
57%
+1.8%
n=7
Mar
43%
+0.3%
n=7
Apr
57%
+5.4%
n=7
May
86%
+18.8%
n=7
Jun
86%
+8.4%
n=7
Jul
75%
+1.6%
n=8
Aug
63%
+5.9%
n=8
Sep
63%
−1.6%
n=8
Oct
57%
+1.5%
n=7
Nov
57%
+4.9%
n=7
Dec
29%
+1.0%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 114,668 @ $261.19 | $30.0M | −21.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 412,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-24 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 74,007 @ $259.35 | $19.2M | −11.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 588,929 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-24 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 69,169 @ $262.29 | $18.1M | −16.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 342,936 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-24 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 62,000 @ $262.72 | $16.3M | −36.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 109,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-24 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 62,000 @ $262.25 | $16.3M | −36.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 109,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-24 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 62,156 @ $260.25 | $16.2M | −10.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 526,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-24 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 18,000 @ $263.51 | $4.7M | −25.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,804 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-24 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 18,000 @ $263.21 | $4.7M | −25.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 2,807 @ $261.26 | $733K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,613,137 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 1,633 @ $262.27 | $428K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,611,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 1,222 @ $260.32 | $318K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,615,944 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 917 @ $251.74 | $231K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,619,864 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 840 @ $252.89 | $212K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,619,024 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 637 @ $253.98 | $162K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,618,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 578 @ $259.41 | $150K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,617,166 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 528 @ $251.02 | $133K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,620,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 360 @ $258.14 | $93K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,617,744 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 195 @ $249.85 | $49K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,621,309 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 163 @ $255.05 | $42K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,618,224 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 120 @ $256.18 | $31K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,618,104 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 3,205 @ $248.85 | $798K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,623,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 2,150 @ $246.86 | $531K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,628,620 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 2,134 @ $247.99 | $529K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,626,486 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 1,697 @ $249.83 | $424K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,621,584 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 734 @ $246.08 | $181K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,630,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-22 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 80 @ $250.48 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,621,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Sentonas Michael | officer | Sale | 48,866 @ $231.61 | $11.3M | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,475,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 37,612 @ $231.61 | $8.7M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,668,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 31,101 @ $238.09 | $7.4M | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 665,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 11,022 @ $247.10 | $2.7M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,647,109 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 8,272 @ $249.21 | $2.1M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,634,518 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Saha Anurag | officer | Sale | 6,876 @ $231.61 | $1.6M | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 206,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 5,700 @ $246.27 | $1.4M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,658,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 4,319 @ $248.27 | $1.1M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,642,790 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 3,469 @ $246.83 | $856K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,710,120 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 3,014 @ $249.86 | $753K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,631,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 1,960 @ $248.98 | $488K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,707,059 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 1,899 @ $238.77 | $453K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 663,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 1,430 @ $245.45 | $351K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,663,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 1,149 @ $245.81 | $282K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,713,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 1,101 @ $247.80 | $273K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,709,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 1,040 @ $249.76 | $260K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,706,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Sentonas Michael | officer | Sale | 995 @ $238.21 | $237K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,474,543 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Podbere Burt W. | officer | Sale | 800 @ $239.94 | $192K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 663,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 570 @ $243.99 | $139K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,665,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 492 @ $237.75 | $117K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,667,122 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 480 @ $238.64 | $115K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,666,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 473 @ $236.37 | $112K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,667,614 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 301 @ $242.98 | $73K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,665,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 281 @ $241.78 | $68K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,666,132 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 280 @ $238.29 | $67K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,715,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 229 @ $240.24 | $55K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,666,413 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 200 @ $236.34 | $47K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,715,579 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 160 @ $241.95 | $39K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,714,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 160 @ $232.07 | $37K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,715,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Saha Anurag | officer | Sale | 140 @ $238.23 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 205,876 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 121 @ $244.35 | $30K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,714,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 120 @ $243.30 | $29K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,714,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 120 @ $239.51 | $29K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,715,179 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Kurtz George | director | Sale | 120 @ $235.43 | $28K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,668,087 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
8 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Flower Johanna | director | Award / grant | 56 | 306,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | GANDHI SAMEER K | director | Award / grant | 63 | 32,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | OLEARY DENIS | director | Award / grant | 58 | 130,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | Schumacher Laura J | director | Award / grant | 68 | 38,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | Watzinger Gerhard | director | Award / grant | 126 | 34,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | DAVIS CARY | director | Award / grant | 83 | 58,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | AUSTIN ROXANNE S | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | AUSTIN ROXANNE S | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 127,040 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-17 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.