Issued 2026-09-16 at $118.00 · now $118.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRUS has typically landed between $100.64 and $138.07 — a range of −14.7% to +17.0% from the issuance price $118.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($118.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRUS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $118 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $118 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $118.24 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $109.87–$126.62
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $100.64–$138.07
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-11-11 | −53.7% | −53.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-11-13 | −50.7% | −50.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-11-04 | −50.4% | −50.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-01-20 | +67.1% | +0.0% | +67.1% |
| 2010-03-29 | +57.4% | +0.0% | +57.4% |
| 2010-03-30 | +56.1% | −2.2% | +56.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 1,166 @ $117.89 | $137K | −7.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,073 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 1,166 @ $138.57 | $162K | −7.1% of holding | −18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 1,458 @ $145.97 | $213K | −8.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,405 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Brannan Andrew | officer | Sale | 6,464 @ $144.71 | $935K | −47.3% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 1,170 @ $168.23 | $197K | −6.7% of holding | −16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | THOMAS SCOTT | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $180.04 | $234K | −4.0% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 3,907 @ $168.54 | $658K | −18.2% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,575 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 11,171 @ $171.65 | $1.9M | −38.9% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,575 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Brannan Andrew | officer | Sale | 1,645 @ $175.75 | $289K | −18.6% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,203 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Dougherty Justin E | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $166.50 | $333K | −30.6% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,537 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | DAVERN ALEXANDER M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $159.00 | $159K | −4.6% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Forsyth John | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $170.41 | $852K | −6.7% of holding | −4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,016 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | THOMAS SCOTT | officer | Sale | 9,942 @ $160.11 | $1.6M | −24.6% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | DAVERN ALEXANDER M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $140.00 | $140K | −4.4% of holding | +1.0% | −30.5% | 21,531 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | THOMAS SCOTT | officer | Sale | 3,239 @ $141.63 | $459K | −9.6% of holding | −4.4% | −31.1% | 30,393 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-11 | Dougherty Justin E | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $143.16 | $429K | −33.8% of holding | −1.0% | −27.2% | 5,876 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Alberty Carl Jackson | officer | Sale | 3,648 @ $142.09 | $518K | −8.6% of holding | −0.5% | −24.3% | 38,581 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Forsyth John | director | Sale | 21,806 @ $135.15 | $2.9M | −30.1% of holding | −1.4% | −21.0% | 50,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Brannan Andrew | officer | Sale | 7,406 @ $119.39 | $884K | −51.9% of holding | +0.5% | +25.2% | 6,862 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Brannan Andrew | officer | Sale | 912 @ $117.44 | $107K | −13.3% of holding | +0.5% | +25.2% | 5,950 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Brannan Andrew | officer | Sale | 595 @ $117.44 | $70K | −8.0% of holding | +0.5% | +25.2% | 6,862 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Alberty Carl Jackson | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $116.65 | $117K | −2.5% of holding | +3.9% | +29.7% | 38,645 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | THOMAS SCOTT | officer | Sale | 734 @ $131.25 | $96K | −2.7% of holding | −10.3% | +22.9% | 26,307 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | THOMAS SCOTT | officer | Sale | 11,089 @ $121.49 | $1.3M | −29.7% of holding | +2.2% | +12.1% | 26,307 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-17 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 7,308 @ $120.00 | $877K | −34.3% of holding | +2.9% | +14.1% | 14,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $120.00 | $120K | −6.7% of holding | +2.9% | +14.1% | 14,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 854 @ $120.00 | $102K | −5.7% of holding | +2.9% | +14.1% | 14,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Grode Denise | officer | Sale | 2,202 @ $116.87 | $257K | −27.9% of holding | +3.3% | +14.5% | 5,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $111.78 | $1.1M | −41.7% of holding | +6.4% | +14.1% | 14,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Grode Denise | officer | Sale | 2,208 @ $114.36 | $253K | −21.8% of holding | +6.2% | +15.1% | 7,900 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Dougherty Justin E | officer | Sale | 1,542 @ $108.08 | $167K | −24.3% of holding | +3.7% | +21.7% | 4,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Alberty Carl Jackson | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $100.35 | $201K | −4.8% of holding | +10.1% | +25.0% | 39,645 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $100.00 | $1.0M | −41.7% of holding | +5.0% | +6.7% | 14,001 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Alberty Carl Jackson | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $100.00 | $200K | −4.6% of holding | +5.0% | +6.7% | 41,645 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | DAVERN ALEXANDER M | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $105.63 | $106K | −4.6% of holding | −2.0% | −3.3% | 20,907 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Dougherty Justin E | officer | Sale | 3,838 @ $100.12 | $384K | −37.7% of holding | −2.2% | −1.6% | 6,334 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | THOMAS SCOTT | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $103.76 | $311K | −10.2% of holding | +1.8% | +1.0% | 26,307 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Sale | 2,051 @ $100.00 | $205K | −19.8% of holding | +8.6% | +0.0% | 8,330 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
229 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | DAVERN ALEXANDER M | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 1,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 1,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Hussain Muhammad Raghib | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 1,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Lego Catherine P | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 1,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | LE DUY LOAN T | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 1,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Tupman David J. | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 1,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Hussain Muhammad Raghib | director | Award / grant | 1,998 | 10,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | DAVERN ALEXANDER M | director | Option exercise | 1,998 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Hussain Muhammad Raghib | director | Option exercise | 1,998 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | LE DUY LOAN T | director | Option exercise | 1,998 | 6,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Lego Catherine P | director | Award / grant | 1,998 | 11,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Lego Catherine P | director | Option exercise | 1,998 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Award / grant | 1,998 | 3,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Tupman David J. | director | Option exercise | 1,998 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | MOSLEY WILLIAM D | director | Option exercise | 1,998 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | LE DUY LOAN T | director | Option exercise | 1,998 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | DAVERN ALEXANDER M | director | Award / grant | 1,998 | 22,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Tupman David J. | director | Award / grant | 1,998 | 27,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Option exercise | 1,458 | 17,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Option exercise | 1,458 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Brannan Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 6,464 | 13,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Brannan Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 6,464 | 138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | THOMAS SCOTT | officer | Option exercise | 1,300 | 32,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | THOMAS SCOTT | officer | Option exercise | 1,300 | 4,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Option exercise | 3,907 | 21,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Option exercise | 3,103 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Option exercise | 804 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 28,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Option exercise | 7,391 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Option exercise | 2,609 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Forsyth John | director | Withheld for tax | 2,429 | 73,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Brannan Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 463 | 8,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | THOMAS SCOTT | officer | Withheld for tax | 425 | 31,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Alberty Carl Jackson | officer | Withheld for tax | 419 | 40,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Dougherty Justin E | officer | Withheld for tax | 419 | 6,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Baumgartner Jeffrey W | officer | Withheld for tax | 419 | 18,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Grode Denise | officer | Withheld for tax | 282 | 9,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Brannan Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 1,277 | 2,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Alberty Carl Jackson | officer | Option exercise | 1,080 | 40,858 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Alberty Carl Jackson | officer | Option exercise | 1,490 | 2,980 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.