Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.10 · now $17.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRTO has typically landed between $14.08 and $20.44 — a range of −17.7% to +19.5% from the issuance price $17.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,217 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRTO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $17.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.85 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.68–$18.02
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.08–$20.44
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,217 windows spanning 2013-10-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −53.5% | −53.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −49.9% | −53.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-01-27 | +90.5% | +0.0% | +96.5% |
| 2021-01-26 | +85.5% | −5.6% | +85.5% |
| 2021-01-29 | +85.3% | +0.0% | +90.6% |
3,217 overlapping windows · 2013-10-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
38%
−3.2%
n=13
Feb
77%
+17.6%
n=13
Mar
38%
−9.1%
n=13
Apr
46%
+1.8%
n=13
May
46%
−1.4%
n=13
Jun
54%
+5.1%
n=13
Jul
62%
+4.2%
n=13
Aug
38%
−5.0%
n=13
Sep
8%
−6.3%
n=13
Oct
42%
−0.8%
n=12
Nov
77%
+5.7%
n=13
Dec
38%
−2.1%
n=13
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,079 @ $17.50 | $19K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 163,765 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | McGogney Connor | officer | Sale | 276 @ $17.50 | $5K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 185,353 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Komasinski Michael | director | Sale | 1,656 @ $17.28 | $29K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 343,891 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 789 @ $17.28 | $14K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 164,844 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | McGogney Connor | officer | Sale | 258 @ $17.28 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 185,629 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 2,132 @ $17.37 | $37K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 165,633 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | McGogney Connor | officer | Sale | 671 @ $17.37 | $12K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 185,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Komasinski Michael | director | Sale | 15,559 @ $17.23 | $268K | −4.3% of holding | +0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 345,547 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 6,285 @ $17.23 | $108K | −1.5% of holding | +0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 424,612 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 6,178 @ $17.23 | $106K | −3.6% of holding | +0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,765 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,079 @ $18.50 | $20K | −0.6% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 982 @ $18.50 | $18K | −0.2% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 430,897 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 1,313 @ $17.06 | $22K | −0.3% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 433,031 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 1,152 @ $17.06 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 431,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,136 @ $17.06 | $19K | −0.6% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 996 @ $17.06 | $17K | −0.6% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | van der Kooi Frederik | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $17.81 | $89K | +23.1% of holding | −0.5% | −17.8% | 26,600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 1,943 @ $18.48 | $36K | −0.6% of holding | +1.2% | −20.2% | 350,842 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,509 @ $18.48 | $28K | −1.3% of holding | +1.2% | −20.2% | 113,895 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 18,304 @ $17.99 | $329K | −4.9% of holding | +3.1% | −15.8% | 352,785 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 13,385 @ $17.99 | $241K | −10.4% of holding | +3.1% | −15.8% | 115,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 1,541 @ $16.71 | $26K | −0.4% of holding | +5.3% | −13.3% | 348,890 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,019 @ $16.71 | $17K | −0.9% of holding | +5.3% | −13.3% | 111,531 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 2,796 @ $16.81 | $47K | −0.8% of holding | +9.9% | −9.8% | 350,431 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,736 @ $16.81 | $29K | −1.5% of holding | +9.9% | −9.8% | 112,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 3,222 @ $21.04 | $68K | −2.7% of holding | −5.0% | −31.4% | 114,286 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 3,982 @ $19.51 | $78K | −1.1% of holding | −2.2% | −21.1% | 353,227 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 3,394 @ $19.51 | $66K | −2.8% of holding | −2.2% | −21.1% | 117,508 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-13 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 6,444 @ $22.14 | $143K | −5.1% of holding | −7.1% | −35.3% | 120,902 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | van der Kooi Frederik | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $21.52 | $108K | +30.1% of holding | −8.8% | −36.8% | 21,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | TEUNISSEN ERNST 02494 | director | Purchase | 4,403 @ $22.71 | $100K | +54.6% of holding | −11.6% | −37.0% | 12,468 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | van der Kooi Frederik | director | Purchase | 2,299 @ $22.61 | $52K | +16.1% of holding | −11.6% | −37.0% | 16,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 3,981 @ $24.06 | $96K | −1.1% of holding | −8.9% | −33.8% | 357,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 3,393 @ $24.06 | $82K | −2.6% of holding | −8.9% | −33.8% | 127,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Gleason Brian | officer | Sale | 2,842 @ $22.85 | $65K | −1.8% of holding | +6.3% | −20.8% | 152,122 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 1,520 @ $26.12 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | −10.7% | −36.3% | 361,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,263 @ $26.12 | $33K | −1.0% of holding | −10.7% | −36.3% | 130,739 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Gleason Brian | officer | Sale | 2,486 @ $25.81 | $64K | −1.6% of holding | −13.9% | −38.7% | 154,964 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 2,465 @ $25.81 | $64K | −0.7% of holding | −13.9% | −38.7% | 362,710 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 2,132 @ $25.81 | $55K | −1.6% of holding | −13.9% | −38.7% | 132,002 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-28 | Gleason Brian | officer | Sale | 2,841 @ $33.89 | $96K | −1.8% of holding | −32.1% | −64.1% | 157,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Gleason Brian | officer | Sale | 8,071 @ $38.45 | $310K | −7.3% of holding | −3.7% | −47.1% | 102,168 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Gleason Brian | officer | Sale | 7,080 @ $38.42 | $272K | −6.0% of holding | −3.7% | −47.1% | 110,239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 22,986 @ $40.01 | $920K | −23.1% of holding | −2.5% | −46.4% | 76,729 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-25 | Gleason Brian | officer | Sale | 19,842 @ $40.30 | $800K | −14.5% of holding | −3.4% | −48.5% | 117,319 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Sale | 17,883 @ $40.30 | $721K | −5.7% of holding | −3.4% | −48.5% | 293,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 14,282 @ $40.30 | $576K | −12.5% of holding | −3.4% | −48.5% | 99,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 1,649 @ $40.11 | $66K | −1.4% of holding | −3.4% | −48.5% | 113,997 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | Clarken Megan | director | Sale | 5,332 @ $43.69 | $233K | −1.1% of holding | −12.1% | −52.2% | 477,638 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-14 | Clarken Megan | director | Sale | 5,259 @ $44.06 | $232K | −1.1% of holding | −12.1% | −52.2% | 482,970 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-14 | Clarken Megan | director | Sale | 4,099 @ $43.40 | $178K | −0.9% of holding | −12.1% | −52.2% | 473,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-13 | Clarken Megan | director | Sale | 5,364 @ $43.43 | $233K | −1.1% of holding | −12.5% | −52.2% | 496,688 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-13 | Clarken Megan | director | Sale | 4,334 @ $43.42 | $188K | −0.9% of holding | −12.5% | −52.2% | 492,354 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-13 | Clarken Megan | director | Sale | 4,125 @ $43.89 | $181K | −0.8% of holding | −12.5% | −52.2% | 488,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-11 | Clarken Megan | director | Sale | 7,481 @ $44.51 | $333K | −1.5% of holding | −12.0% | −52.9% | 502,052 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | Gleason Brian | officer | Sale | 1,924 @ $38.08 | $73K | −1.4% of holding | +2.5% | −44.6% | 137,161 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Gleason Brian | officer | Sale | 3,135 @ $36.95 | $116K | −2.2% of holding | +2.4% | −46.0% | 139,085 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Damon Ryan | officer | Sale | 2,793 @ $42.54 | $119K | −2.4% of holding | −10.2% | −43.3% | 115,646 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
46 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Jay Stefanie | director | Award / grant | 6,200 | 10,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | McGogney Connor | officer | Award / grant | 23,090 | 186,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mesrobian Edmond | director | Award / grant | 32,187 | 32,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Damon Ryan | officer | Disposition | 173,943 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Damon Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 173,943 | 173,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Picard Rachel | director | Disposition | 53,488 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Picard Rachel | director | Award / grant | 53,488 | 53,488 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Komasinski Michael | director | Disposition | 361,106 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Komasinski Michael | director | Award / grant | 361,106 | 361,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Disposition | 430,897 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Award / grant | 430,897 | 430,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | van der Kooi Frederik | director | Award / grant | 26,600 | 26,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | TEUNISSEN ERNST 02494 | director | Award / grant | 12,471 | 12,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | van der Kooi Frederik | director | Disposition | 26,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Balla Nathalie | director | Award / grant | 33,846 | 33,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | TEUNISSEN ERNST 02494 | director | Disposition | 12,471 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Jay Stefanie | director | Disposition | 4,444 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Jay Stefanie | director | Award / grant | 4,444 | 4,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Lalleman Marie | director | Disposition | 42,736 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Lalleman Marie | director | Award / grant | 42,736 | 42,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mesrobian Edmond | director | Disposition | 32,187 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Balla Nathalie | director | Disposition | 33,846 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Komasinski Michael | director | Award / grant | 141,700 | 361,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Award / grant | 83,502 | 434,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Damon Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 63,259 | 177,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Damon Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 4,165 | 128,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Komasinski Michael | director | Award / grant | 42,771 | 219,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Damon Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 13,093 | 124,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Award / grant | 4,915 | 371,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Glickman Sarah JS | director | Award / grant | 17,284 | 366,174 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Komasinski Michael | director | Award / grant | 125,000 | 176,635 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Picard Rachel | director | Award / grant | 8,276 | 53,488 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Lalleman Marie | director | Award / grant | 2,437 | 42,736 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-05 | Jay Stefanie | director | Award / grant | 4,444 | 4,444 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Balla Nathalie | director | Award / grant | 6,450 | 33,846 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | van der Kooi Frederik | director | Award / grant | 7,701 | 14,301 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Mesrobian Edmond | director | Award / grant | 6,172 | 32,187 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | TEUNISSEN ERNST 02494 | director | Award / grant | 6,177 | 8,065 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Lalleman Marie | director | Award / grant | 3,833 | 40,299 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Komasinski Michael | director | Award / grant | 51,635 | 51,635 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.