Issued 2026-09-16 at $411.80 · now $411.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRS has typically landed between $350.26 and $527.34 — a range of −14.9% to +28.1% from the issuance price $411.80.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($411.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $411.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $411.8 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $427.23 (+3.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $389.84–$464.61
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $350.26–$527.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −66.3% | −66.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −62.5% | −66.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −62.4% | −62.7% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-04 | +64.5% | +0.0% | +64.5% |
| 2020-10-28 | +60.4% | +0.0% | +69.3% |
| 2008-12-04 | +58.2% | +0.0% | +58.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Feb
70%
+5.3%
n=20
Mar
55%
−1.3%
n=20
Apr
75%
+8.3%
n=20
May
55%
+2.9%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Jul
45%
+0.8%
n=20
Aug
50%
−0.4%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.9%
n=20
Oct
45%
+0.3%
n=20
Nov
65%
+5.7%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.8%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | KAROL STEVEN E | director | Sale | 3,275 @ $474.08 | $1.6M | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 177,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 11,899 @ $484.61 | $5.8M | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 468,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 10,004 @ $485.71 | $4.9M | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 480,623 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 8,383 @ $482.57 | $4.0M | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 452,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 8,372 @ $482.27 | $4.0M | −17.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 38,728 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 8,071 @ $483.61 | $3.9M | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 460,653 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 7,864 @ $485.17 | $3.8M | −11.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 59,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 7,053 @ $484.35 | $3.4M | −11.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,918 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 6,320 @ $480.34 | $3.0M | −18.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,786 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 6,126 @ $486.35 | $3.0M | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 67,835 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 5,818 @ $483.26 | $2.8M | −11.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 5,800 @ $481.61 | $2.8M | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 446,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 4,949 @ $480.46 | $2.4M | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 441,521 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 4,622 @ $481.30 | $2.2M | −11.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 2,370 @ $487.85 | $1.2M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 492,622 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 2,251 @ $488.67 | $1.1M | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 76,213 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 2,252 @ $487.21 | $1.1M | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 73,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 2,095 @ $488.74 | $1.0M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 494,992 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 1,995 @ $486.59 | $971K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 490,627 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 1,890 @ $479.89 | $907K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 439,631 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 720 @ $479.49 | $345K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Thene Tony R | director | Sale | 429 @ $489.33 | $210K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,464 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Younessi Ramin | director | Sale | 438 @ $493.15 | $216K | −18.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,953 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | KAROL STEVEN E | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $487.74 | $975K | −0.9% of holding | +26.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 223,381 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | HART ANASTASIOS JOHN | director | Sale | 250 @ $461.88 | $115K | −100.0% of holding | +32.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Sale | 3,434 @ $443.37 | $1.5M | −15.6% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,579 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Sale | 2,947 @ $442.15 | $1.3M | −11.8% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Sale | 1,953 @ $441.18 | $862K | −7.3% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Sale | 999 @ $438.87 | $438K | −3.5% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,763 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Sale | 850 @ $439.86 | $374K | −3.1% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,913 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Sale | 837 @ $437.86 | $366K | −2.8% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,762 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Sale | 560 @ $436.37 | $244K | −1.9% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,599 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Sale | 235 @ $443.78 | $104K | −1.3% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | HART ANASTASIOS JOHN | director | Sale | 750 @ $423.86 | $318K | −100.0% of holding | +8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | DEE JAMES D | officer | Sale | 7,142 @ $391.82 | $2.8M | −8.5% of holding | +7.8% | +11.9% | 76,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | DEE JAMES D | officer | Sale | 5,999 @ $391.20 | $2.3M | −6.7% of holding | +7.8% | +11.9% | 83,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | DEE JAMES D | officer | Sale | 2,659 @ $392.98 | $1.0M | −3.5% of holding | +7.8% | +11.9% | 73,739 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | KAROL STEVEN E | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $381.12 | $1.3M | −1.5% of holding | −0.6% | +15.4% | 225,381 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | KAROL STEVEN E | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $380.00 | $1.1M | −1.7% of holding | −0.6% | +15.4% | 177,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 2,130 @ $304.00 | $648K | −2.6% of holding | −1.5% | +65.1% | 78,875 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-11 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $303.00 | $606K | −2.4% of holding | −1.5% | +65.1% | 81,005 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 11,894 @ $305.55 | $3.6M | −11.9% of holding | +4.6% | +76.0% | 88,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 9,473 @ $306.41 | $2.9M | −10.7% of holding | +4.6% | +76.0% | 78,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 6,108 @ $304.47 | $1.9M | −5.7% of holding | +4.6% | +76.0% | 100,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 5,681 @ $303.45 | $1.7M | −5.1% of holding | +4.6% | +76.0% | 106,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 5,545 @ $302.62 | $1.7M | −4.7% of holding | +4.6% | +76.0% | 112,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 3,287 @ $301.65 | $992K | −2.7% of holding | +4.6% | +76.0% | 117,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $300.25 | $480K | −1.3% of holding | +4.6% | +76.0% | 120,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 100 @ $307.45 | $31K | −0.1% of holding | +4.6% | +76.0% | 78,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 7,326 @ $304.52 | $2.2M | −7.3% of holding | +7.5% | +78.8% | 92,448 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 6,741 @ $303.74 | $2.0M | −6.3% of holding | +7.5% | +78.8% | 99,774 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 5,061 @ $305.65 | $1.5M | −5.5% of holding | +7.5% | +78.8% | 87,387 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 3,193 @ $307.99 | $983K | −3.9% of holding | +7.5% | +78.8% | 79,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 1,904 @ $306.46 | $583K | −2.2% of holding | +7.5% | +78.8% | 85,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 1,089 @ $310.20 | $338K | −1.3% of holding | +7.5% | +78.8% | 82,673 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 980 @ $307.68 | $302K | −1.1% of holding | +7.5% | +78.8% | 84,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 741 @ $308.61 | $229K | −0.9% of holding | +7.5% | +78.8% | 83,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Malloy Brian J | director | Sale | 605 @ $308.53 | $187K | −0.8% of holding | +7.5% | +78.8% | 78,875 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | SOCCI ELIZABETH A | officer | Sale | 3,900 @ $321.25 | $1.3M | −28.9% of holding | +0.5% | +40.6% | 9,594 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Younessi Ramin | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $307.19 | $399K | −30.8% of holding | +3.1% | +34.6% | 2,924 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
226 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | KAROL STEVEN E | director | Option exercise | 3,275 | 180,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | KAROL STEVEN E | director | Option exercise | 3,275 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | KAROL STEVEN E | director | Option exercise | 3,275 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | KAROL STEVEN E | director | Option exercise | 3,275 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | KAROL STEVEN E | director | Option exercise | 3,275 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Younessi Ramin | director | Option exercise | 438 | 2,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Younessi Ramin | director | Option exercise | 438 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Younessi Ramin | director | Option exercise | 438 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | SOCCI ELIZABETH A | officer | Award / grant | 208 | 10,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | LAIN TIMOTHY | officer | Award / grant | 1,383 | 115,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | DEE JAMES D | officer | Award / grant | 738 | 79,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thene Tony R | director | Award / grant | 5,993 | 78,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Award / grant | 1,015 | 24,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | SOCCI ELIZABETH A | officer | Award / grant | 208 | 10,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | LAIN TIMOTHY | officer | Award / grant | 1,383 | 115,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thene Tony R | director | Award / grant | 5,993 | 78,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Award / grant | 1,015 | 24,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Award / grant | 1,015 | 24,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | DEE JAMES D | officer | Award / grant | 738 | 79,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thene Tony R | director | Award / grant | 5,993 | 78,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | LAIN TIMOTHY | officer | Award / grant | 1,383 | 115,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | SOCCI ELIZABETH A | officer | Award / grant | 208 | 10,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Award / grant | 1,015 | 24,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | DEE JAMES D | officer | Award / grant | 738 | 79,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | LAIN TIMOTHY | officer | Award / grant | 1,383 | 115,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | SOCCI ELIZABETH A | officer | Award / grant | 208 | 10,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thene Tony R | director | Award / grant | 5,993 | 78,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | DEE JAMES D | officer | Award / grant | 738 | 79,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thene Tony R | director | Withheld for tax | 9,479 | 72,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | LAIN TIMOTHY | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,407 | 113,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | AKINS MARSHALL D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,758 | 23,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | DEE JAMES D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,535 | 78,730 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | SOCCI ELIZABETH A | officer | Withheld for tax | 330 | 10,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Giacobbe Ken | director | Award / grant | 21 | 21 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Giacobbe Ken | director | Award / grant | 225 | 225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Giacobbe Ken | director | Award / grant | 21 | 21 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Giacobbe Ken | director | Award / grant | 225 | 225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Giacobbe Ken | director | Award / grant | 21 | 21 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Giacobbe Ken | director | Award / grant | 225 | 225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Giacobbe Ken | director | Award / grant | 21 | 21 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.