CROX · TickerCove

CROXCrocs, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Footwear & Accessoriesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $115.40 · now $115.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CROX has typically landed between $88.93 and $143.81 — a range of −22.9% to +24.6% from the issuance price $115.40.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($115.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$115.4 · 62% of range

$73.39 low$141.19 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.4%

typical move · IQR 18.7%

−22.9%worst (p90)+24.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CROX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $115.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $115.4 (+0.0%)
typical $114.96 (-0.4%)
middle 50% $104.18–$125.75
90% range $88.93–$143.81

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−71.6%	−71.6%	+1.5%
2020-02-20	−70.8%	−70.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−70.4%	−72.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-07	+138.4%	+0.0%	+156.8%
2009-04-06	+122.9%	−12.0%	+125.9%
2009-07-10	+120.2%	+0.0%	+120.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+2.7%

n=20

Feb

45%

−2.7%

n=20

Mar

60%

+1.2%

n=20

Apr

50%

+6.7%

n=20

May

70%

+7.6%

n=20

Jun

60%

+2.9%

n=20

Jul

65%

+5.2%

n=20

Aug

40%

+3.3%

n=20

Sep

45%

−1.4%

n=20

Oct

45%

−2.7%

n=20

Nov

65%

+2.6%

n=20

Dec

50%

+1.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	KAPLAN BETH J	director	Purchase	885 @ $112.12	$99K	+6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	15,259	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15	SMACH THOMAS J	director	Purchase	680 @ $111.49	$76K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	680	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-10	SMACH THOMAS J	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $109.42	$328K	+3.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	93,249	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10	SMACH THOMAS J	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $109.27	$109K	+0.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	112,063	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Rees Andrew	director	Sale	9,576 @ $138.38	$1.3M	−1.3% of holding	−18.2%	not yet — horizon still open	722,789	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	Rees Andrew	director	Sale	8,696 @ $139.39	$1.2M	−1.2% of holding	−18.2%	not yet — horizon still open	714,093	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	Rees Andrew	director	Sale	800 @ $140.02	$112K	−0.1% of holding	−18.2%	not yet — horizon still open	713,293	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07	Rees Andrew	director	Sale	5,796 @ $137.41	$796K	−0.8% of holding	−15.4%	not yet — horizon still open	737,497	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07	Rees Andrew	director	Sale	4,204 @ $137.96	$580K	−0.6% of holding	−15.4%	not yet — horizon still open	733,293	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07	Rees Andrew	director	Sale	928 @ $139.04	$129K	−0.1% of holding	−15.4%	not yet — horizon still open	732,365	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05	Rees Andrew	director	Sale	15,800 @ $117.94	$1.9M	−2.1% of holding	+1.3%	not yet — horizon still open	753,281	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05	Rees Andrew	director	Sale	9,988 @ $119.11	$1.2M	−1.3% of holding	+1.3%	not yet — horizon still open	743,293	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05	Rees Andrew	director	Sale	6,900 @ $116.97	$807K	−0.9% of holding	+1.3%	not yet — horizon still open	769,081	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20	MEHLMAN ANNE	officer	Sale	12,145 @ $100.06	$1.2M	−8.5% of holding	−15.7%	+10.4%	131,112	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20	SMACH THOMAS J	director	Sale	4,963 @ $100.00	$496K	−4.4% of holding	−15.7%	+10.4%	108,246	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13	SMACH THOMAS J	director	Sale	5,000 @ $98.41	$492K	−100.0% of holding	−16.4%	+20.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-11	REPLOGLE JOHN B	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $74.50	$224K	+19.5% of holding	+18.2%	+19.4%	18,417	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12	Healy Susan L.	officer	Purchase	2,000 @ $76.56	$153K	+4.2% of holding	+1.6%	−2.1%	50,078	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08	REPLOGLE JOHN B	director	Purchase	2,925 @ $76.73	$224K	+23.4% of holding	+8.6%	+2.2%	15,417	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-08	REPLOGLE JOHN B	director	Purchase	336 @ $76.30	$26K	+2.8% of holding	+8.6%	+2.2%	12,492	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-12	Bickley Ian	director	Sale	3,044 @ $115.89	$353K	−10.0% of holding	−15.4%	−55.2%	27,505	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-09	SMACH THOMAS J	director	Sale	9,139 @ $109.47	$1.0M	−7.7% of holding	−11.1%	−47.7%	109,458	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-21	SISLER SHANNON	officer	Sale	4,659 @ $109.75	$511K	−13.7% of holding	+7.1%	−27.8%	29,299	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-18	MICHAELS ADAM	officer	Sale	9,034 @ $106.39	$961K	−8.7% of holding	+6.9%	−27.6%	95,289	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18	MICHAELS ADAM	officer	Sale	5,966 @ $107.14	$639K	−6.3% of holding	+6.9%	−27.6%	89,323	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-04	Rees Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	105,610	570,179	Form 4
2026-08-04	Rees Andrew	director	Option exercise	200,000	675,789	Form 4
2026-08-04	Rees Andrew	director	Option exercise	200,000	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	HUGHES CHARISSE FORD	director	Award / grant	1,252	16,703	Form 4
2026-06-09	Bickley Ian	director	Award / grant	1,252	31,609	Form 4
2026-06-09	FRASCH RONALD	director	Award / grant	1,252	76,180	Form 4
2026-06-09	SMACH THOMAS J	director	Award / grant	2,817	111,063	Form 4
2026-06-09	SMACH THOMAS J	director	Award / grant	1,291	90,249	Form 4
2026-06-09	TREFF DOUGLAS J	director	Award / grant	1,252	85,596	Form 4
2026-06-09	TREFF DOUGLAS J	director	Award / grant	1,291	86,887	Form 4
2026-06-09	KAPLAN BETH J	director	Award / grant	1,252	14,374	Form 4
2026-06-09	REPLOGLE JOHN B	director	Award / grant	1,252	19,669	Form 4
2026-06-09	TOLMARE NEERAJ	director	Award / grant	1,252	6,666	Form 4
2026-06-09	TOLMARE NEERAJ	director	Award / grant	1,095	7,761	Form 4
2026-05-22	FRASCH RONALD	director	Gift	500	74,928	Form 4
2026-04-29	REILLY TERENCE	officer	Withheld for tax	7,820	104,531	Form 4
2026-03-22	REAGAN PATRAIC	officer	Withheld for tax	3,523	86,071	Form 4
2026-03-12	Rees Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	6,687	475,789	Form 4
2026-03-12	MEHLMAN ANNE	officer	Withheld for tax	1,079	185,208	Form 4
2026-03-11	Rees Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	7,267	482,476	Form 4
2026-03-11	MEHLMAN ANNE	officer	Withheld for tax	1,931	186,287	Form 4
2026-03-11	REILLY TERENCE	officer	Withheld for tax	1,691	112,351	Form 4
2026-03-11	Campbell Rupert George	officer	Withheld for tax	564	71,218	Form 4
2026-03-11	MEHLMAN ANNE	officer	Disposition	10,608	188,218	Form 4
2026-03-11	Rees Andrew	director	Disposition	55,419	489,743	Form 4
2026-03-11	REILLY TERENCE	officer	Disposition	3,588	114,042	Form 4
2026-03-11	Campbell Rupert George	officer	Disposition	1,255	71,782	Form 4
2026-03-10	Campbell Rupert George	officer	Withheld for tax	987	73,037	Form 4
2026-03-10	Campbell Rupert George	officer	Award / grant	38,695	74,024	Form 4
2026-03-10	REILLY TERENCE	officer	Award / grant	44,222	117,630	Form 4
2026-03-10	Rees Andrew	director	Award / grant	207,853	545,162	Form 4
2026-03-10	MEHLMAN ANNE	officer	Award / grant	24,122	198,826	Form 4
2026-03-10	MEHLMAN ANNE	officer	Award / grant	44,222	174,704	Form 4
2026-03-10	REAGAN PATRAIC	officer	Award / grant	44,222	89,594	Form 4
2026-03-02	Rees Andrew	director	Withheld for tax	3,956	337,309	Form 4
2026-03-02	MEHLMAN ANNE	officer	Withheld for tax	630	130,482	Form 4
2026-02-01	MEHLMAN ANNE	officer	Withheld for tax	1,501	163,096	Form 4
2026-02-01	MEHLMAN ANNE	officer	Disposition	19,839	143,257	Form 4
2025-11-20	Rees Andrew	director	Gift	40,000	775,981	Form 4
2025-09-22	REAGAN PATRAIC	officer	Award / grant	45,372	45,372	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i