Issued 2026-09-10 at $84.95 · now $84.95 (2026-08-31, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-10 close, CRNX has typically landed between $68.50 and $108.46 — a range of −19.4% to +27.7% from the issuance price $84.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,018 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-07-18 – 2026-07-31 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 54.0% (90% CI 51.8–56.2%, ≈1,443 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-10 issuance close ($84.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-09, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRNX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-10 close of $84.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $84.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $85.65 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $78.15–$93.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $68.5–$108.46
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,018 windows spanning 2018-07-18 to 2026-08-31. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −49.0% | −49.0% | +7.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −48.1% | −48.4% | +8.4% |
| 2020-02-20 | −45.4% | −52.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-05 | +154.0% | +0.0% | +154.0% |
| 2026-06-11 | +150.2% | +0.0% | +150.2% |
| 2026-06-08 | +149.6% | +0.0% | +149.8% |
2,018 overlapping windows · 2018-07-18 – 2026-08-31 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- October 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Safety and PK of CRN04894 for the Treatment of Cushing's Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate Atumelnant in Adults With Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study to Investigate Safety and Effectiveness of CRN09682 in Participants With SST2-Expressing NENs and Other Solid Tumors (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Carcinoid Syndrome Efficacy Study Featuring an Oral Daily Paltusotine Regimen (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- July 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: An Extension Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Atumelnant in Participants With Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2030 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: A Study in Pediatric Participants With Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (Balance-CAH) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−7.8%
n=8
Feb
50%
−2.2%
n=8
Mar
25%
−5.7%
n=8
Apr
63%
+6.9%
n=8
May
50%
−2.6%
n=8
Jun
63%
+0.5%
n=8
Jul
50%
+13.2%
n=8
Aug
56%
+5.1%
n=9
Sep
38%
+10.5%
n=8
Oct
50%
+0.7%
n=8
Nov
88%
+10.5%
n=8
Dec
75%
+3.7%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Vivaldi Coelho Rogerio | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $40.00 | $120K | −13.5% of holding | +95.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,225 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Okey Stephanie | director | Sale | 6,292 @ $35.62 | $224K | −47.3% of holding | +133.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Okey Stephanie | director | Sale | 608 @ $36.22 | $22K | −8.7% of holding | +133.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Knight Jeff E. | officer | Sale | 85,163 @ $40.10 | $3.4M | −44.7% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Sale | 13,196 @ $37.11 | $490K | −3.1% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 413,563 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Sale | 8,785 @ $37.77 | $332K | −2.1% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 404,778 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 6,371 @ $37.11 | $236K | −4.3% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 141,342 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Knight Jeff E. | officer | Sale | 5,950 @ $37.11 | $221K | −4.9% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 115,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 4,241 @ $37.77 | $160K | −3.0% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Knight Jeff E. | officer | Sale | 3,961 @ $37.77 | $150K | −3.4% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,018 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Vivaldi Coelho Rogerio | director | Sale | 4,477 @ $36.08 | $162K | −21.0% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Vivaldi Coelho Rogerio | director | Sale | 523 @ $36.77 | $19K | −3.1% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Schilke Tobin | officer | Sale | 6,713 @ $39.67 | $266K | −7.9% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,121 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Okey Stephanie | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $39.67 | $119K | −18.4% of holding | −5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Kalofonos Isabel | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $55.00 | $138K | −75.0% of holding | −1.3% | +63.7% | 834 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $45.02 | $225K | −7.0% of holding | +2.3% | −38.4% | 66,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 4,900 @ $42.65 | $209K | −6.9% of holding | +9.6% | −10.7% | 66,370 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 100 @ $43.27 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | +9.6% | −10.7% | 66,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $41.81 | $209K | −7.0% of holding | +2.3% | −9.2% | 66,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Fust Matthew K | director | Sale | 16,000 @ $44.75 | $716K | −41.2% of holding | −7.0% | −21.4% | 22,836 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $45.00 | $180K | −3.6% of holding | −7.0% | −21.4% | 106,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $32.10 | $161K | −4.9% of holding | +20.3% | +11.0% | 96,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $30.43 | $913K | −31.2% of holding | +12.9% | +36.9% | 66,270 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 6,492 @ $29.18 | $189K | −8.9% of holding | +12.3% | +40.7% | 66,270 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 97,483 @ $32.23 | $3.1M | −49.4% of holding | −4.4% | +38.5% | 99,713 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Sale | 16,463 @ $34.17 | $563K | −4.8% of holding | −5.4% | −15.1% | 330,022 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Knight Jeff E. | officer | Sale | 6,801 @ $34.17 | $232K | −7.2% of holding | −5.4% | −15.1% | 87,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 5,479 @ $34.17 | $187K | −4.8% of holding | −5.4% | −15.1% | 108,879 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 2,388 @ $34.17 | $82K | −3.2% of holding | −5.4% | −15.1% | 72,360 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Sale | 875 @ $34.83 | $30K | −0.3% of holding | −5.4% | −15.1% | 329,147 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Knight Jeff E. | officer | Sale | 361 @ $34.83 | $13K | −0.4% of holding | −5.4% | −15.1% | 87,491 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 291 @ $34.83 | $10K | −0.3% of holding | −5.4% | −15.1% | 108,588 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 127 @ $34.83 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −5.4% | −15.1% | 72,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $39.07 | $195K | −13.6% of holding | −10.0% | −30.3% | 31,748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-03 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $52.09 | $781K | −33.9% of holding | −28.1% | −45.2% | 29,248 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-02 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $57.57 | $576K | −9.1% of holding | −7.4% | −42.6% | 100,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-22 | Knight Jeff E. | officer | Sale | 501 @ $56.52 | $28K | −1.0% of holding | −5.1% | −45.3% | 51,653 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-03 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 14,375 @ $54.63 | $785K | −33.5% of holding | +6.9% | −39.4% | 28,507 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-26 | Wilson Marc | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $51.11 | $1.3M | −18.4% of holding | +13.4% | −32.1% | 111,092 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-10 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 1,035 @ $51.50 | $53K | −1.5% of holding | −4.9% | −31.6% | 68,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-26 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $53.19 | $160K | −4.1% of holding | −7.0% | −42.5% | 69,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-12 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $47.68 | $143K | −4.0% of holding | −1.6% | −42.8% | 72,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-25 | Wilson Marc | officer | Sale | 19,056 @ $53.88 | $1.0M | −14.6% of holding | −4.8% | −40.4% | 111,092 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-25 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $53.43 | $160K | −3.8% of holding | −4.8% | −40.4% | 75,611 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-07-15 | Knight Jeff E. | officer | Sale | 27,000 @ $55.00 | $1.5M | −34.3% of holding | −3.6% | −38.6% | 51,653 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-15 | Wilson Marc | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $55.00 | $1.4M | −18.4% of holding | −3.6% | −38.6% | 111,092 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-10 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $48.55 | $146K | −3.7% of holding | +5.3% | −10.2% | 78,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-05 | Hassard James | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $44.08 | $661K | −33.9% of holding | +18.8% | +13.9% | 29,259 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-03 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 14,375 @ $44.87 | $645K | −33.5% of holding | +16.0% | +9.9% | 28,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-28 | Wilson Marc | officer | Sale | 32,129 @ $43.61 | $1.4M | −22.4% of holding | +17.9% | +5.7% | 111,092 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-26 | Knight Jeff E. | officer | Sale | 956 @ $44.38 | $42K | −1.8% of holding | +29.0% | +16.9% | 52,580 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-25 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $45.37 | $136K | −3.6% of holding | +20.1% | +10.4% | 80,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-24 | Pizzuti Dana | officer | Sale | 9,500 @ $45.73 | $434K | −25.5% of holding | +17.3% | +7.8% | 27,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-21 | Hassard James | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $44.66 | $670K | −33.9% of holding | +18.6% | +7.7% | 29,259 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-10 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $43.86 | $132K | −3.5% of holding | +13.1% | +12.2% | 83,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
245 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 248,043 | 176,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 287,700 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 259,058 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 244,205 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 313,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 176,663 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 195,578 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 136,805 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 172,281 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 240,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | WIERENGA WENDELL | director | Disposition | 116,146 | 5,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 111,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 228,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 110,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 106,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 90,514 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 110,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Struthers Richard Scott | director | Disposition | 80,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 79,650 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Schilke Tobin | officer | Disposition | 71,471 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 85,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 74,540 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 77,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 58,286 | 79,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Kalofonos Isabel | officer | Disposition | 97,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Schilke Tobin | officer | Disposition | 80,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 60,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 87,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 56,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 65,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Kalofonos Isabel | officer | Disposition | 34,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Deardorf Caren | director | Disposition | 35,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Kalofonos Isabel | officer | Disposition | 55,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Schilke Tobin | officer | Disposition | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Vivaldi Coelho Rogerio | director | Disposition | 35,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fust Matthew K | director | Disposition | 22,836 | 5,925 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Betz Stephen F. | officer | Disposition | 47,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bedrosian Camille L | director | Disposition | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Okey Stephanie | director | Disposition | 25,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.