Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.85 · now $7.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRNC has typically landed between $5.35 and $10.83 — a range of −31.8% to +37.9% from the issuance price $7.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,737 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-09-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRNC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.59 (-3.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.54–$8.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.35–$10.83
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-05-06 | −69.3% | −69.3% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-03 | −68.9% | −68.9% | +0.0% |
| 2024-05-08 | −68.2% | −68.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-06 | +181.4% | −11.3% | +181.4% |
| 2024-12-03 | +181.1% | −4.7% | +181.1% |
| 2024-11-20 | +177.3% | +0.0% | +217.4% |
1,737 overlapping windows · 2019-09-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Salinas Jennifer | officer | Sale | 25,998 @ $8.83 | $230K | −3.6% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 694,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Krzanich Brian M | director | Sale | 132,075 @ $11.46 | $1.5M | −12.7% of holding | −20.5% | −37.9% | 905,987 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | Salinas Jennifer | officer | Sale | 77,994 @ $12.31 | $960K | −18.4% of holding | −21.6% | −40.0% | 346,289 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-06 | Salinas Jennifer | officer | Sale | 64,784 @ $12.76 | $826K | −13.2% of holding | −24.0% | −38.8% | 424,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Rodriquez Antonio | officer | Sale | 38,347 @ $12.76 | $489K | −12.2% of holding | −24.0% | −38.8% | 276,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Schanz Nils | officer | Sale | 30,560 @ $12.76 | $390K | −13.0% of holding | −24.0% | −38.8% | 204,981 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Mentz Christian | officer | Sale | 26,872 @ $12.76 | $343K | −19.4% of holding | −24.0% | −38.8% | 111,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Mentz Christian | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $12.74 | $51K | −2.8% of holding | −22.0% | −41.5% | 138,747 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Mentz Christian | officer | Sale | 3,600 @ $14.73 | $53K | −2.5% of holding | −21.9% | −24.7% | 142,747 | Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | BEAUDOIN THOMAS L | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $11.68 | $58K | −2.8% of holding | −3.0% | −30.5% | 173,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | BEAUDOIN THOMAS L | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $7.98 | $40K | −2.7% of holding | +61.8% | +18.8% | 178,966 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
27 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | Budnik Marianne | director | Award / grant | 12,968 | 60,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Klevorn Marcy S | director | Award / grant | 12,968 | 35,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Harris Marion | director | Award / grant | 12,968 | 27,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | DAVIS DOUGLAS LEE | director | Award / grant | 12,968 | 39,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Matus Kristi Ann | director | Award / grant | 12,968 | 54,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Krzanich Brian M | director | Award / grant | 263,338 | 1,722,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Mentz Christian | officer | Award / grant | 131,694 | 293,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Rodriquez Antonio | officer | Award / grant | 131,694 | 575,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Salinas Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 131,694 | 720,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Schanz Nils | officer | Award / grant | 87,796 | 342,682 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Krzanich Brian M | director | Award / grant | 552,766 | 1,458,753 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Salinas Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 242,044 | 588,333 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Rodriquez Antonio | officer | Award / grant | 166,821 | 443,552 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Schanz Nils | officer | Award / grant | 49,905 | 254,886 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Mentz Christian | officer | Award / grant | 49,905 | 161,780 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Schanz Nils | officer | Award / grant | 90,252 | 235,541 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Rodriquez Antonio | officer | Award / grant | 1,795 | 315,078 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Harris Marion | director | Award / grant | 14,210 | 14,210 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-13 | Sarin Arun | director | Award / grant | 9,955 | 63,485 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-13 | Nietzel Alfred A | director | Award / grant | 9,955 | 42,198 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-13 | Budnik Marianne | director | Award / grant | 9,955 | 47,198 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-13 | Matus Kristi Ann | director | Award / grant | 9,955 | 41,769 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-13 | DAVIS DOUGLAS LEE | director | Award / grant | 9,955 | 26,576 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-13 | Klevorn Marcy S | director | Award / grant | 9,955 | 22,436 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Mentz Christian | officer | Award / grant | 93,720 | 146,347 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Schanz Nils | officer | Award / grant | 93,720 | 145,289 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-06 | Rodriquez Antonio | officer | Award / grant | 313,283 | 313,283 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.