Issued 2026-09-16 at $250.54 · now $250.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRM has typically landed between $208.73 and $292.34 — a range of −16.7% to +16.7% from the issuance price $250.54.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($250.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $250.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $250.54 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $252.13 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $233.32–$270.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $208.73–$292.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −50.0% | −50.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −48.7% | −48.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-23 | −47.4% | −47.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-19 | +46.9% | +0.0% | +58.5% |
| 2020-07-28 | +43.7% | +0.0% | +43.7% |
| 2020-07-29 | +42.7% | −1.0% | +42.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$134.0B
market cap
$8.63
EPS (TTM)
19.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-02
next earnings
Revenue$41.5B
'21'26
Net income$7.5B
'21'26
Free cash flow$14.4B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr18.0%
'21'26
ROE · by yr12.6%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.29
'21'26
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$241.95
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$295.19
- Analyst target · range $215.00–$325.00$265.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$250.54
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+2.0%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.9%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.2%
n=19
May
63%
+1.3%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.5%
n=19
Aug
58%
+6.5%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.2%
n=19
Oct
67%
+2.4%
n=18
Nov
56%
+2.6%
n=18
Dec
39%
−0.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Conway Craig | director | Sale | 3,082 @ $260.66 | $803K | −36.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,437 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | Conway Craig | director | Sale | 1,418 @ $260.50 | $369K | −14.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,519 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | ALBER LAURA | director | Purchase | 2,080 @ $194.59 | $405K | +27.9% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,530 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | ALBER LAURA | director | Purchase | 491 @ $194.54 | $96K | +7.1% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,450 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Kirk David Blair | director | Purchase | 2,570 @ $194.62 | $500K | +23.1% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,689 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-14 | KROES NEELIE | director | Sale | 3,893 @ $238.70 | $929K | −34.8% of holding | −19.6% | −36.6% | 7,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Kirk David Blair | director | Purchase | 1,936 @ $258.64 | $501K | +22.1% of holding | −15.8% | −53.2% | 10,677 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Morfit G Mason | director | Purchase | 96,000 @ $260.58 | $25.0M | +3.3% of holding | +1.4% | −40.5% | 2,994,509 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Harris Parker | director | Sale | 57,475 @ $235.44 | $13.5M | −27.9% of holding | +7.7% | −31.0% | 148,414 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Harris Parker | director | Sale | 39,442 @ $234.61 | $9.3M | −16.1% of holding | +7.7% | −31.0% | 205,889 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Harris Parker | director | Sale | 15,873 @ $233.25 | $3.7M | −6.1% of holding | +7.7% | −31.0% | 245,331 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Harris Parker | director | Sale | 13,225 @ $232.52 | $3.1M | −4.8% of holding | +7.7% | −31.0% | 261,204 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Harris Parker | director | Sale | 8,647 @ $236.17 | $2.0M | −5.8% of holding | +7.7% | −31.0% | 139,767 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 50 @ $259.92 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | −8.7% | −38.4% | 11,911,590 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 24 @ $258.57 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −8.7% | −38.4% | 11,911,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 19 @ $260.73 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −8.7% | −38.4% | 11,911,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 17 @ $255.76 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −8.7% | −38.4% | 11,911,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 12 @ $257.92 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −8.7% | −38.4% | 11,911,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 764 @ $257.02 | $196K | −0.0% of holding | −9.8% | −34.6% | 11,912,720 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 491 @ $260.42 | $128K | −0.0% of holding | −9.8% | −34.6% | 11,911,841 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 270 @ $261.32 | $71K | −0.0% of holding | −9.8% | −34.6% | 11,911,571 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 232 @ $257.91 | $60K | −0.0% of holding | −9.8% | −34.6% | 11,912,488 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 222 @ $255.50 | $57K | −0.0% of holding | −9.8% | −34.6% | 11,913,484 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 156 @ $258.81 | $40K | −0.0% of holding | −9.8% | −34.6% | 11,912,332 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 115 @ $254.08 | $29K | −0.0% of holding | −9.8% | −34.6% | 11,913,706 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 858 @ $257.30 | $221K | −0.0% of holding | −9.3% | −33.6% | 11,912,377 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 698 @ $258.29 | $180K | −0.0% of holding | −9.3% | −33.6% | 11,911,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 276 @ $256.47 | $71K | −0.0% of holding | −9.3% | −33.6% | 11,913,235 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 132 @ $251.45 | $33K | −0.0% of holding | −9.3% | −33.6% | 11,913,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 108 @ $258.93 | $28K | −0.0% of holding | −9.3% | −33.6% | 11,911,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 72 @ $252.53 | $18K | −0.0% of holding | −9.3% | −33.6% | 11,913,545 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 72 @ $250.41 | $18K | −0.0% of holding | −9.3% | −33.6% | 11,913,749 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 34 @ $254.24 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | −9.3% | −33.6% | 11,913,511 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 977 @ $252.16 | $246K | −0.0% of holding | −7.7% | −32.0% | 11,912,058 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 701 @ $251.39 | $176K | −0.0% of holding | −7.7% | −32.0% | 11,913,035 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 487 @ $253.03 | $123K | −0.0% of holding | −7.7% | −32.0% | 11,911,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 85 @ $250.19 | $21K | −0.0% of holding | −7.7% | −32.0% | 11,913,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 1,216 @ $257.88 | $314K | −0.0% of holding | −9.2% | −35.5% | 11,911,715 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 376 @ $256.72 | $97K | −0.0% of holding | −9.2% | −35.5% | 11,912,931 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 291 @ $254.59 | $74K | −0.0% of holding | −9.2% | −35.5% | 11,913,530 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 223 @ $255.60 | $57K | −0.0% of holding | −9.2% | −35.5% | 11,913,307 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Benioff Marc | director | Sale | 144 @ $258.37 | $37K | −0.0% of holding | −9.2% | −35.5% | 11,911,571 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
258 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Niles Sabastian | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,873 | 18,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Milano Miguel | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,535 | 32,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Harris Parker | director | Gift | 16,000 | 914,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Niles Sabastian | officer | Withheld for tax | 920 | 27,037 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Milano Miguel | officer | Withheld for tax | 678 | 38,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | KROES NEELIE | director | Withheld for tax | 67 | 8,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | DONALD ARNOLD W | director | Option exercise | 441 | 5,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | DONALD ARNOLD W | director | Option exercise | 441 | 441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | MUNOZ OSCAR | director | Option exercise | 441 | 441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Roos John Victor | director | Option exercise | 441 | 441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Milano Miguel | officer | Option exercise | 1,662 | 6,651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Kirk David Blair | director | Option exercise | 441 | 14,572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Niles Sabastian | officer | Option exercise | 1,662 | 27,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Chang Amy | director | Option exercise | 441 | 441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | SACHIN J. MEHRA | director | Option exercise | 441 | 441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Niles Sabastian | officer | Option exercise | 1,662 | 6,651 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Roos John Victor | director | Option exercise | 441 | 17,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | ALBER LAURA | director | Option exercise | 441 | 10,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | ALBER LAURA | director | Option exercise | 441 | 441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Milano Miguel | officer | Option exercise | 1,662 | 39,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | SACHIN J. MEHRA | director | Option exercise | 441 | 5,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | KROES NEELIE | director | Option exercise | 441 | 441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | KROES NEELIE | director | Option exercise | 441 | 8,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Kirk David Blair | director | Option exercise | 441 | 441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | MUNOZ OSCAR | director | Option exercise | 441 | 13,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Conway Craig | director | Option exercise | 441 | 9,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Milano Miguel | officer | Award / grant | 14,121 | 14,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Conway Craig | director | Option exercise | 441 | 441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | Chang Amy | director | Option exercise | 441 | 2,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Harris Parker | director | Withheld for tax | 886 | 163,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Tallapragada Srinivas | director | Withheld for tax | 886 | 71,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Harris Parker | director | Option exercise | 1,786 | 5,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Tallapragada Srinivas | director | Option exercise | 1,786 | 71,953 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Tallapragada Srinivas | director | Option exercise | 1,786 | 5,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Harris Parker | director | Option exercise | 1,786 | 164,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Washington Robin L | director | Withheld for tax | 908 | 48,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Tallapragada Srinivas | director | Withheld for tax | 908 | 70,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Tallapragada Srinivas | director | Withheld for tax | 756 | 69,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Harris Parker | director | Withheld for tax | 631 | 162,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Harris Parker | director | Withheld for tax | 630 | 161,748 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | purchase | 2026-07-07 | 2026-06-02 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-05-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-06 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-20 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.