CRHCRH plcBasic Materials · Construction Materialsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $86.70 · now $86.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRH has typically landed between $76.73 and $98.89 — a range of −11.5% to +14.1% from the issuance price $86.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($86.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CRH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $86.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$76.73worst · -11.5%$98.89best · +14.1%
  • now $86.7 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $88.41 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $83.14–$93.69
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $76.73–$98.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−49.7%−49.7%+0.3%
2020-02-19−48.9%−49.8%+0.0%
2020-02-20−46.2%−49.6%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+49.4%+0.0%+60.8%
2020-03-19+41.3%+0.0%+58.1%
2020-03-23+38.7%+0.0%+48.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$66.7B
market cap
$5.80
EPS (TTM)
17.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$37.4B
'20'25
Net income$3.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr15.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.82
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $86.70$80.39$171.91
  • DCF (intrinsic)$127.11
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$138.43
  • Analyst target · range $120.00–$165.60$135.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$86.70

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+0.8%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
74%
+4.5%
n=19
May
37%
−2.7%
n=19
Jun
37%
−1.9%
n=19
Jul
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.3%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.6%
n=18
Dec
78%
+4.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$130$872026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $156K — ORiordain Padraig2026-03-12: 1 insider purchase, $204K — Talbot Siobhan2026-03-11: 1 insider purchase, $397K — FEARON RICHARD H2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $4.4M — Lake Randy2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $4.4M2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $601K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $156K↑ buys↓ salesofficer ORiordain Padraig — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Talbot Siobhan — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FEARON RICHARD H — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lake Randy — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-15ORiordain PadraigofficerSale1,492 @ $104.44$156K−55.3% of holding+7.8%not yet — horizon still open1,205Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-12Talbot SiobhandirectorPurchase2,000 @ $102.11$204K+36.0% of holding+14.3%−26.2%7,550Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11FEARON RICHARD HdirectorPurchase3,800 @ $104.49$397K+2.7% of holding+12.6%−28.0%143,800Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12Lake RandyofficerSale40,000 @ $110.91$4.4M−44.3% of holding−0.1%+5.8%50,224Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13ORiordain PadraigofficerPurchase1,492 @ $99.16$148Kownership Δ n/a−8.2%−1.8%1,492Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Connolly AlanofficerSale10,680 @ $102.93$1.1M−16.9% of holding−7.2%+1.9%52,341Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Mintern Denis JamesdirectorSale4,097 @ $102.93$422K−10.3% of holding−7.2%+1.9%35,757Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-28Manifold Albert JudedirectorSale7,000 @ $100.82$706K−8.0% of holding−8.3%+1.8%80,083Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

241 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-13Mintern Denis JamesdirectorWithheld for tax7,93249,889Form 4
2026-05-13Lake RandyofficerWithheld for tax2,843104,136Form 4
2026-05-13Creech NathanofficerWithheld for tax2,044147,946Form 4
2026-05-13Buckley Peter J.officerWithheld for tax1,742169,673Form 4
2026-05-13Boucher Richard Aidan HughdirectorWithheld for tax1,60325,036Form 4
2026-05-13ORiordain PadraigofficerWithheld for tax1,3172,697Form 4
2026-05-13San Agustin Juan PabloofficerWithheld for tax1,24750,597Form 4
2026-05-13Wheatley PhilipofficerWithheld for tax1,04651,999Form 4
2026-05-13Talbot SiobhandirectorWithheld for tax1,0478,507Form 4
2026-05-13Dowling CarolinedirectorWithheld for tax1,0471,957Form 4
2026-05-13FEARON RICHARD HdirectorWithheld for tax962144,842Form 4
2026-05-13Platt Gillian L.directorWithheld for tax9622,199Form 4
2026-05-13Kelly ShaundirectorWithheld for tax9625,042Form 4
2026-05-13Verchere Christina CampbelldirectorWithheld for tax9622,042Form 4
2026-05-13Rhinehart Mary KdirectorWithheld for tax9622,338Form 4
2026-05-13Karlstrom JohandirectorWithheld for tax9623,042Form 4
2026-05-13McKay LamardirectorWithheld for tax9625,042Form 4
2026-05-13Khan BadardirectorWithheld for tax9623,542Form 4
2026-05-13Lane KristinofficerWithheld for tax87618,361Form 4
2026-05-13Bryan AylwynofficerWithheld for tax63216,823Form 4
2026-05-13Talbot SiobhandirectorOption exercise2,0049,554Form 4
2026-05-13Wheatley PhilipofficerOption exercise2,00353,045Form 4
2026-05-13Verchere Christina CampbelldirectorOption exercise2,0043,004Form 4
2026-05-13Karlstrom JohandirectorOption exercise2,0044,004Form 4
2026-05-13Creech NathanofficerOption exercise5,194149,990Form 4
2026-05-13Boucher Richard Aidan HughdirectorOption exercise3,33926,639Form 4
2026-05-13Khan BadardirectorOption exercise2,0044,504Form 4
2026-05-13ORiordain PadraigofficerOption exercise2,5224,014Form 4
2026-05-13Bryan AylwynofficerOption exercise1,16917,455Form 4
2026-05-13Mintern Denis JamesdirectorOption exercise15,19457,821Form 4
2026-05-13Platt Gillian L.directorOption exercise2,0043,161Form 4
2026-05-13Buckley Peter J.officerOption exercise3,487171,415Form 4
2026-05-13FEARON RICHARD HdirectorOption exercise2,004145,804Form 4
2026-05-13Lane KristinofficerOption exercise2,22519,237Form 4
2026-05-13Rhinehart Mary KdirectorOption exercise2,0043,300Form 4
2026-05-13Dowling CarolinedirectorOption exercise2,0043,004Form 4
2026-05-13Lake RandyofficerOption exercise6,381106,979Form 4
2026-05-13McKay LamardirectorOption exercise2,0046,004Form 4
2026-05-13Kelly ShaundirectorOption exercise2,0046,004Form 4
2026-05-13San Agustin Juan PabloofficerOption exercise2,74551,844Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-09-062023-08-11$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-03-032023-02-10$15–50K
Greg GianforteSenatesale2019-01-232018-12-21$1–15K
Greg GianforteSenatesale2018-12-112018-11-19$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2015-02-122015-02-01$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2015-02-122015-02-01$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2014-10-162014-09-01$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2014-10-162014-09-01$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2014-04-102014-03-12$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2014-04-102014-03-12$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.