CRGY · TickerCove

CRGYCrescent Energy CompanyEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.40 · now $14.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRGY has typically landed between $11.76 and $17.68 — a range of −18.3% to +22.8% from the issuance price $14.40.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,176 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-12-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$14.4 · 88% of range

$7.6 low$15.37 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.8%

typical move · IQR 18.5%

−18.3%worst (p90)+22.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where CRGY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $14.4 (+0.0%)
typical $14.51 (+0.8%)
middle 50% $13.18–$15.85
90% range $11.76–$17.68

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,176 windows spanning 2021-12-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-06-03	−38.0%	−38.0%	+2.3%
2022-06-02	−36.4%	−36.4%	+0.6%
2022-06-09	−32.4%	−37.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-07-14	+37.6%	+0.0%	+37.6%
2026-02-25	+33.8%	+0.0%	+33.8%
2022-07-22	+33.3%	−0.3%	+36.8%

1,176 overlapping windows · 2021-12-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

80%

+1.7%

n=5

Feb

60%

+2.8%

n=5

Mar

60%

+5.9%

n=5

Apr

20%

−8.8%

n=5

May

60%

+1.4%

n=5

Jun

40%

−7.7%

n=5

Jul

100%

+11.6%

n=5

Aug

80%

+11.4%

n=5

Sep

20%

−7.6%

n=5

Oct

50%

+1.7%

n=4

Nov

75%

+8.0%

n=4

Dec

25%

−2.9%

n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-07	Liberty Mutual Foundation Inc.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	32,600,000 @ $12.33	$402.0M	−88.6% of holding	−5.6%	not yet — horizon still open	4,213,628	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-06	ROWLAND MARCUS C	director	Sale	40,000 @ $13.25	$530K	−41.0% of holding	−11.6%	not yet — horizon still open	57,446	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17	Kendall Brandi	director	Purchase	932 @ $11.05	$10K	+4.2% of holding	−24.8%	−35.6%	23,347	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-13	DUGINSKI MICHAEL	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $10.57	$211K	+8.3% of holding	−23.6%	−35.1%	259,607	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-12	DUGINSKI MICHAEL	director	Purchase	6,000 @ $10.71	$64K	+2.6% of holding	−24.8%	−34.1%	239,607	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11	DUGINSKI MICHAEL	director	Purchase	4,000 @ $10.38	$42K	+1.7% of holding	−16.5%	−32.1%	233,607	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-10	KKR Group Partnership L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,948,723 @ $9.91	$29.2M	−100.0% of holding	−17.3%	−33.8%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10	Independence Energy Aggregator L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,948,723 @ $9.91	$29.2M	−100.0% of holding	−17.3%	−33.8%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-14	ROWLAND MARCUS C	director	Gift	3,500	53,946	Form 4
2026-06-02	Hall Jerome D JR	director	Withheld for tax	44,731	139,164	Form 4
2026-04-01	Shi Bo	officer	Withheld for tax	3,426	49,366	Form 4
2026-04-01	FARLEY CLAIRE S	director	Award / grant	17,411	63,324	Form 4
2026-04-01	Brown Bevin	director	Award / grant	17,411	42,765	Form 4
2026-04-01	GOFF JOHN C	director	Award / grant	31,012	31,012	Form 4
2026-04-01	Simon Karen Jo	director	Award / grant	17,411	103,748	Form 4
2026-04-01	Hollingsworth Jarvis V.	director	Award / grant	17,411	55,656	Form 4
2026-04-01	ROWLAND MARCUS C	director	Award / grant	17,411	97,446	Form 4
2026-04-01	Albrecht William E	director	Award / grant	17,411	82,075	Form 4
2026-04-01	MCCAIN ELLIS L	director	Award / grant	17,411	96,389	Form 4
2026-04-01	Langenhagen Conrad V.	director	Award / grant	17,411	24,773	Form 4
2026-04-01	GWIN ROBERT G	director	Award / grant	17,411	63,324	Form 4
2026-03-16	Rockecharlie David C.	director	Other acquisition	43,359	207,341	Form 4
2026-03-16	Kendall Brandi	director	Other acquisition	11,259	56,023	Form 4
2026-03-16	Rynd John Clayton	officer	Other acquisition	11,251	39,684	Form 4
2026-03-16	Falk Todd	officer	Other acquisition	3,400	15,325	Form 4
2026-03-16	Kendall Brandi	director	Other acquisition	43,935	67,282	Form 4
2026-03-16	Falk Todd	officer	Other acquisition	11,725	18,725	Form 4
2026-03-16	Rynd John Clayton	officer	Other acquisition	43,935	50,935	Form 4
2026-03-16	Rockecharlie David C.	director	Other acquisition	140,700	250,700	Form 4
2025-12-17	ROWLAND MARCUS C	director	Gift	6,500	84,535	Form 4
2025-12-17	ROWLAND MARCUS C	director	Gift	2,250	82,285	Form 4
2025-12-17	ROWLAND MARCUS C	director	Gift	2,250	80,035	Form 4
2025-12-16	PT Independence Energy Holdings LLC	director	Gift	36,813,628	41,118	Form 4
2025-09-26	Langenhagen Conrad V.	director	Award / grant	7,362	7,362	Form 4
2025-09-26	Hall Jerome D JR	director	Award / grant	183,895	183,895	Form 4
2025-04-04	KKR Group Partnership L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	26,185,773	26,185,773	Form 4
2025-04-04	PT Independence Energy Holdings LLC	director	Other acquisition	36,813,628	0	Form 4
2025-04-04	PT Independence Energy Holdings LLC	director	Conversion	36,813,628	36,854,748	Form 4
2025-04-04	KKR Group Partnership L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	26,185,773	0	Form 4
2025-04-04	KKR Group Partnership L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	26,185,773	0	Form 4
2025-04-04	Independence Energy Aggregator L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	26,185,773	0	Form 4
2025-04-04	Independence Energy Aggregator L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	26,185,773	26,185,773	Form 4
2025-04-04	Independence Energy Aggregator L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	26,185,773	0	Form 4
2025-04-04	PT Independence Energy Holdings LLC	director	Conversion	36,813,628	0	Form 4
2025-04-04	PT Independence Energy Holdings LLC	director	Conversion	36,813,628	0	Form 4
2025-04-04	PT Independence Energy Holdings LLC	director	Conversion	36,813,628	0	Form 4
2025-04-01	Shi Bo	officer	Withheld for tax	3,438	52,792	Form 4
2025-04-01	GWIN ROBERT G	director	Award / grant	11,043	45,913	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i