Issued 2026-09-16 at $161.49 · now $161.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRDO has typically landed between $119.28 and $240.64 — a range of −26.1% to +49.0% from the issuance price $161.49.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,142 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-01-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($161.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRDO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $161.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $161.49 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $167.31 (+3.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $139.42–$195.2
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $119.28–$240.64
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,142 windows spanning 2022-01-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-02-14 | −57.5% | −57.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-13 | −57.3% | −57.3% | +0.3% |
| 2023-02-10 | −54.1% | −54.1% | +3.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-12 | +121.2% | +0.0% | +121.2% |
| 2023-05-03 | +120.1% | −1.7% | +121.1% |
| 2023-05-04 | +117.4% | +0.0% | +125.0% |
1,142 overlapping windows · 2022-01-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+6.7%
n=4
Feb
40%
−5.2%
n=5
Mar
0%
−13.3%
n=5
Apr
40%
+7.1%
n=5
May
80%
+36.3%
n=5
Jun
100%
+26.6%
n=5
Jul
40%
+3.8%
n=5
Aug
60%
+5.7%
n=5
Sep
20%
−9.9%
n=5
Oct
75%
+17.4%
n=4
Nov
75%
+13.0%
n=4
Dec
50%
+5.6%
n=4
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Sale | 5,013 @ $152.49 | $764K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,603,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Sale | 4,675 @ $151.54 | $708K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,608,843 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Sale | 3,984 @ $150.39 | $599K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,613,518 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $153.39 | $460K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,600,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 12,912 @ $162.18 | $2.1M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,758,885 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 9,585 @ $163.06 | $1.6M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,749,300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 4,403 @ $163.88 | $722K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,744,897 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 600 @ $160.99 | $97K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,771,797 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 3,790 @ $170.00 | $644K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 136,568 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 12,300 @ $213.46 | $2.6M | −3.7% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 319,238 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 11,600 @ $215.10 | $2.5M | −0.5% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,533,769 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 10,669 @ $215.37 | $2.3M | −3.4% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 303,138 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 10,488 @ $211.08 | $2.2M | −0.4% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,566,528 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 9,100 @ $213.99 | $1.9M | −0.4% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,545,369 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 8,254 @ $213.04 | $1.8M | −0.3% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,554,469 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 7,594 @ $209.83 | $1.6M | −0.3% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,577,016 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 6,950 @ $211.06 | $1.5M | −2.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 337,262 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 5,788 @ $210.06 | $1.2M | −1.7% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 344,212 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 5,724 @ $212.38 | $1.2M | −1.7% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 331,538 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 5,431 @ $214.61 | $1.2M | −1.7% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 313,807 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 4,600 @ $216.23 | $995K | −0.2% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,529,169 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 4,507 @ $207.11 | $933K | −0.1% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,793,463 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 4,306 @ $212.13 | $913K | −0.1% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,775,166 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 4,093 @ $208.09 | $852K | −0.1% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,789,370 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 3,805 @ $212.14 | $807K | −0.1% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,562,723 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 3,698 @ $211.09 | $781K | −0.1% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,779,472 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 3,700 @ $210.13 | $777K | −0.1% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,783,170 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Sale | 3,138 @ $216.49 | $679K | −1.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 300,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $209.08 | $523K | −0.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,786,870 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 2,369 @ $213.04 | $505K | −0.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,772,797 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 661 @ $201.22 | $133K | −0.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,799,209 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 600 @ $205.54 | $123K | −0.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,797,970 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 500 @ $204.11 | $102K | −0.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,798,570 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 200 @ $215.35 | $43K | −0.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,772,397 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 200 @ $213.84 | $43K | −0.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,772,597 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 139 @ $202.22 | $28K | −0.0% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,799,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 3,587 @ $204.28 | $733K | −0.1% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,813,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 3,400 @ $207.66 | $706K | −0.1% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,806,070 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 2,806 @ $203.44 | $571K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,816,857 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $208.22 | $479K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,803,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 2,103 @ $202.36 | $426K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,819,663 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 2,043 @ $206.56 | $422K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,809,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 1,905 @ $200.15 | $381K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,823,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 1,757 @ $205.15 | $360K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,811,513 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 1,704 @ $201.27 | $343K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,821,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 1,495 @ $199.31 | $298K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,825,375 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 800 @ $209.51 | $168K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,802,970 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 700 @ $214.72 | $150K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,801,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 600 @ $213.91 | $128K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,801,970 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 500 @ $217.69 | $109K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,799,970 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 500 @ $197.94 | $99K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,826,870 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 400 @ $217.02 | $87K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,800,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 400 @ $215.59 | $86K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,800,870 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 300 @ $210.89 | $63K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,802,670 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 100 @ $218.79 | $22K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,799,870 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 100 @ $211.53 | $21K | −0.0% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,802,570 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 9,310 @ $222.59 | $2.1M | −0.2% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,835,370 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 6,490 @ $221.84 | $1.4M | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,844,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 6,200 @ $223.58 | $1.4M | −0.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,829,170 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $224.39 | $404K | −0.0% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,827,370 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Laufman James | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,379 | 174,223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Gift | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Gift | 75,000 | 1,617,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-13 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Gift | 75,000 | 1,692,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Withheld for tax | 6,149 | 366,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Withheld for tax | 3,181 | 2,640,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Withheld for tax | 2,460 | 144,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Fleming Daniel W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,460 | 512,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Withheld for tax | 6,149 | 372,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Withheld for tax | 3,180 | 2,643,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fleming Daniel W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,460 | 514,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Withheld for tax | 19,675 | 378,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fleming Daniel W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,838 | 517,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 398,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 398,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fleming Daniel W. | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fleming Daniel W. | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 527,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fleming Daniel W. | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fleming Daniel W. | officer | Option exercise | 25,000 | 527,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Gift | 7,000 | 2,646,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Gift | 7,500 | 1,767,502 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Withheld for tax | 19,675 | 347,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Fleming Daniel W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,805 | 541,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Withheld for tax | 6,360 | 2,653,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Withheld for tax | 4,919 | 146,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Gift | 5,000 | 6,019,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fleming Daniel W. | officer | Award / grant | 120,000 | 553,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Lam Yat Tung | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 2,660,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | DANESH FARIBA | director | Award / grant | 890 | 8,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Cheng Chi Fung | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 158,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Brennan William Joseph | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 422,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Laufman James | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,379 | 191,230 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.