Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.59 · now $5.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CRCT has typically landed between $4.34 and $7.04 — a range of −22.3% to +26.0% from the issuance price $5.59.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,355 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-25 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRCT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.59 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.44 (-2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.92–$5.96
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.34–$7.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,355 windows spanning 2021-03-25 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-25 | −48.6% | −48.6% | +0.5% |
| 2022-02-10 | −48.3% | −48.3% | +1.2% |
| 2022-02-09 | −47.7% | −47.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-19 | +132.3% | +0.0% | +132.3% |
| 2023-05-18 | +112.8% | −4.4% | +112.8% |
| 2023-05-17 | +98.2% | −9.5% | +98.2% |
1,355 overlapping windows · 2021-03-25 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
−6.7%
n=5
Feb
40%
−3.5%
n=5
Mar
0%
−9.1%
n=5
Apr
50%
+6.0%
n=6
May
67%
+6.0%
n=6
Jun
67%
+9.2%
n=6
Jul
50%
−1.2%
n=6
Aug
33%
−1.8%
n=6
Sep
50%
+11.7%
n=6
Oct
20%
−6.0%
n=5
Nov
0%
−14.1%
n=5
Dec
60%
+2.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $5.61 | $336K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,597,105 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $5.85 | $351K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,657,105 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $5.79 | $348K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,717,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Harmer Ryan | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $5.70 | $57K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 314,428 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $5.48 | $329K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,027,105 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $5.53 | $332K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,087,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $5.60 | $336K | −1.4% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,147,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Harmer Ryan | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $6.00 | $30K | −1.5% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 324,428 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 58,095 @ $5.98 | $347K | −1.4% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,209,010 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 1,905 @ $6.26 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,207,105 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $4.89 | $293K | −1.4% of holding | +17.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,267,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $4.77 | $286K | −1.4% of holding | +21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,327,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 2,282 @ $4.75 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | +15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,321,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 1,051 @ $4.75 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | +22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,324,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 16,366 @ $4.30 | $70K | −0.4% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,325,226 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Harmer Ryan | officer | Sale | 17,267 @ $4.12 | $71K | −5.0% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 325,579 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $3.98 | $239K | −1.4% of holding | +12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,341,592 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $3.95 | $237K | −1.3% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,401,592 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $3.95 | $237K | −1.3% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,461,592 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Makler Jason | director | Purchase | 310 @ $4.15 | $1K | +1.0% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-12 | Makler Jason | director | Purchase | 9,691 @ $4.34 | $42K | +48.5% of holding | +5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,690 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 13,458 @ $4.25 | $57K | −0.4% of holding | −6.3% | +26.1% | 3,724,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $4.28 | $257K | −1.6% of holding | −7.9% | +28.1% | 3,738,453 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $4.42 | $265K | −1.6% of holding | −2.2% | +18.6% | 3,798,453 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-20 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $4.62 | $277K | −1.5% of holding | −5.7% | +12.0% | 3,858,453 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $4.65 | $279K | −1.5% of holding | −7.1% | +6.9% | 3,918,453 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 20,833 @ $4.93 | $103K | −0.5% of holding | −6.0% | −18.2% | 4,177,922 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 20,833 @ $4.83 | $101K | −0.5% of holding | −5.9% | −17.4% | 4,198,755 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 20,833 @ $4.97 | $103K | −0.5% of holding | −6.5% | −18.9% | 4,219,588 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-24 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 20,833 @ $4.94 | $103K | −0.5% of holding | −9.6% | −16.0% | 4,240,421 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 20,833 @ $4.97 | $104K | −0.5% of holding | −9.0% | −9.9% | 4,261,254 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 20,833 @ $5.12 | $107K | −0.5% of holding | −13.4% | −20.2% | 4,282,087 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 20,833 @ $5.12 | $107K | −0.5% of holding | −4.4% | −20.0% | 4,302,920 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-09 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 20,833 @ $5.09 | $106K | −0.5% of holding | −4.8% | −18.9% | 4,323,753 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,294 @ $4.97 | $106K | −0.5% of holding | −2.6% | −16.9% | 4,344,586 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 20,372 @ $4.79 | $98K | −0.5% of holding | +4.2% | −17.9% | 4,365,880 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 33,561 @ $4.82 | $162K | −0.8% of holding | +1.5% | −25.2% | 4,386,252 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 10,628 @ $4.77 | $51K | −0.2% of holding | +0.9% | −24.1% | 4,419,813 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $4.83 | $290K | −1.3% of holding | −3.0% | −25.1% | 4,430,441 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 17,204 @ $5.27 | $91K | −0.6% of holding | −13.0% | −16.2% | 2,668,146 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-16 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 11,211 @ $5.27 | $59K | −0.4% of holding | −13.3% | −18.5% | 2,685,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $5.47 | $116K | −0.8% of holding | −17.1% | −24.0% | 2,696,561 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $5.66 | $120K | −0.8% of holding | −15.1% | −26.2% | 2,717,811 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-07 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $5.61 | $119K | −0.8% of holding | −15.7% | −26.1% | 2,739,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $5.81 | $124K | −0.8% of holding | −13.6% | −26.2% | 2,760,311 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $6.42 | $136K | −0.8% of holding | −19.4% | −35.1% | 2,781,561 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-24 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $6.77 | $144K | −0.8% of holding | −23.6% | −38.1% | 2,802,811 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $6.77 | $144K | −0.7% of holding | −26.0% | −38.8% | 2,824,061 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $6.36 | $135K | −0.7% of holding | −20.0% | −37.2% | 2,845,311 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-10 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $6.18 | $131K | −0.7% of holding | −16.4% | −37.0% | 2,866,561 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $6.16 | $131K | −0.7% of holding | −12.8% | −38.3% | 2,887,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $5.75 | $122K | −0.7% of holding | +5.9% | −30.9% | 2,909,061 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-26 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $5.75 | $122K | −0.7% of holding | +7.4% | −28.7% | 2,930,311 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $5.94 | $126K | −0.7% of holding | +11.4% | −33.2% | 2,951,561 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Harmer Ryan | officer | Sale | 3,580 @ $6.00 | $21K | −1.1% of holding | +9.8% | −33.8% | 309,844 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $5.57 | $118K | −0.7% of holding | +18.8% | −22.0% | 2,972,811 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Harmer Ryan | officer | Sale | 18,771 @ $5.70 | $107K | −5.3% of holding | +18.8% | −22.0% | 334,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $5.64 | $120K | −0.7% of holding | +13.2% | −21.8% | 2,994,061 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Ashish Arora | director | Sale | 21,250 @ $5.57 | $118K | −0.7% of holding | +15.1% | −22.1% | 3,015,311 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Tuttle Matt | officer | Sale | 40,491 @ $5.69 | $230K | −11.0% of holding | +7.7% | −26.8% | 329,164 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
107 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Ashish Arora | director | Conversion | 1,750,000 | 20,257,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Ashish Arora | director | Conversion | 1,750,000 | 5,777,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Ashish Arora | director | Conversion | 1,750,000 | 5,777,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Ashish Arora | director | Conversion | 1,750,000 | 5,777,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Ashish Arora | director | Conversion | 1,750,000 | 5,777,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Harmer Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 3,849 | 329,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Ashish Arora | director | Award / grant | 65,212 | 4,387,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Williamson Billie Ida | director | Award / grant | 677 | 113,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | REIFF MELISSA | director | Award / grant | 677 | 113,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Shill Kimball C | officer | Award / grant | 16,897 | 1,658,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Zak Heidi | director | Award / grant | 2,072 | 134,879 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Tuttle Matt | officer | Award / grant | 4,884 | 418,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Zak Heidi | director | Award / grant | 30,414 | 132,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | REIFF MELISSA | director | Award / grant | 30,414 | 112,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Williamson Billie Ida | director | Award / grant | 30,414 | 112,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Ashish Arora | director | Withheld for tax | 203,403 | 4,521,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Shill Kimball C | officer | Withheld for tax | 57,774 | 1,642,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Harmer Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,346 | 342,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Tuttle Matt | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,577 | 413,170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Harmer Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 350,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Ashish Arora | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 4,724,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Shill Kimball C | officer | Award / grant | 325,000 | 1,699,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Tuttle Matt | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 418,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Ashish Arora | director | Withheld for tax | 265,206 | 3,978,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Shill Kimball C | officer | Withheld for tax | 62,029 | 1,374,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Tuttle Matt | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,924 | 318,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Harmer Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,055 | 290,192 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 853,712 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 853,712 | 853,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 853,712 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 853,712 | 1,228,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,228,491 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Makler Jason | director | Other acquisition | 616,079 | 2,332,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Makler Jason | director | Other acquisition | 616,079 | 2,332,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 853,712 | 853,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 853,712 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 853,712 | 1,228,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,228,491 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 853,712 | 853,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Petrus Trust Company, LTA | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 853,712 | 1,228,491 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.